1. A Historical Record of Charts from the Quarterly Press Releases of the Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity
2007 to Present

2. A Brief History of the LIRA and User Notes
First developed in 2007, the LIRA was originally benchmarked to the Census Bureau’s quarterly Construction Spending (C-50) series of home improvements and maintenance/repairs to owner-occupied units.
In 2008, the C-50 was discontinued, and the LIRA was re-benchmarked to the Census Bureau’s monthly C-30 series of home improvement spending to owner-occupied units (maintenance spending was no longer available).
In 2016, the LIRA was again re-benchmarked to historical estimates of home improvement and maintenance/repair spending based on data from HUD’s biennial American Housing Survey.

3. Leading Remodeling Activity Indicator – First Quarter 2007 Published: April 2007
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Homeowner Remodeling Activity
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

4. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Second Quarter 2007 Published: July 2007
Homeowner Remodeling Activity
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

5. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Third Quarter 2007 Published: October 2007
Homeowner Remodeling Activity
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

6. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Fourth Quarter 2007 Published: January 2008
Homeowner Remodeling Activity
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

7. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – First Quarter 2008 Published: April 2008
Homeowner Remodeling Activity
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

8. JULY 2008
LIRA RE-BENCHMARKED TO Census c-30 SPENDING ESTIMATES

9. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Second Quarter 2008 REBENCHMARKED TO C-30 Published: July 2008
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Note: The former LIRA modeled homeowner improvement and maintenance/repair activity, while the re-benchmarked LIRA models only home improvement activity.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

10. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Third Quarter 2008 Published: October 2008
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Note: The former LIRA modeled homeowner improvement and maintenance/repair activity, while the re-benchmarked LIRA models only home improvement activity.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

11. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Fourth Quarter 2008 Published: January 2009
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Notes: The fourth quarter 2008 estimate was calculated using partial-quarter C-30 data from the Census Bureau. The former LIRA modeled homeowner improvement and maintenance/repair activity, while the re-benchmarked LIRA models only home improvement activity.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

12. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – First Quarter 2009 Published: April 2009
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Note: The first quarter 2009 estimate was calculated using partial-quarter C-30 data from the Census Bureau. The former LIRA modeled homeowner improvement and maintenance/repair activity, while the re-benchmarked LIRA models only home improvement activity.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

13. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Second Quarter 2009 Published: July 2009
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

14. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Third Quarter 2009 Published: October 2009
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

15. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Fourth Quarter 2009 Published: January 2010
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

16. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – First Quarter 2010 Published: April 2010
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

17. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Second Quarter 2010 Published: July 2010
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Note: Historical data and LIRA weights are revised annually in July.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

18. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Third Quarter 2010 Published: October 2010
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Note: Historical data and LIRA weights are revised annually in July.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

19. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Fourth Quarter 2010 Published: January 2011
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Note: Historical data and LIRA weights are revised annually in July.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

20. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – First Quarter 2011 Published: April 2011
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Note: Historical data and LIRA weights are revised annually in July.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

21. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Second Quarter 2011 Published: July 2011
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Note: Historical data and LIRA weights are revised annually in July.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

22. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Third Quarter 2011 Published: October 2011
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Note: Historical data and LIRA weights are revised annually in July.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

23. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Fourth Quarter 2011 Published: January 2012
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Note: Historical data and LIRA weights are revised annually in July.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

24. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – First Quarter 2012 Published: April 2012
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Note: Historical data and LIRA weights are revised annually in July.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

25. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Second Quarter 2012 Published: July 2012
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

26. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Third Quarter 2012 Published: October 2012
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

27. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Fourth Quarter 2012 Published: January 2013
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Note: The fourth quarter 2012 estimate is calculated using preliminary Census Bureau data and LIRA projections.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

28. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – First Quarter 2013 Published: April 2013
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Note: The first quarter 2013 estimate is calculated using preliminary Census Bureau data and LIRA projections.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

29. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Second Quarter 2013 Published: July 2013
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Note: The second quarter 2013 estimate is calculated using preliminary Census Bureau data and LIRA projections.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

30. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Third Quarter 2013 Published: October 2013
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Note: The third quarter 2013 estimate is calculated using preliminary Census Bureau data and LIRA projections.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

31. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Fourth Quarter 2013 Published: January 2014
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Note: Third quarter 2013 estimate does not include Census Bureau data, because third quarter data collection for home improvement spending was affected by the October 2013 government shutdown.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

32. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – First Quarter 2014 Published: April 2014
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Note: The third and fourth quarter 2013 estimate is based on the LIRA, because data collection for home improvement spending by the Census Bureau was impacted by the October 2013 government shutdown.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

33. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Second Quarter 2014 Published: July 2014
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Notes: The historical data from the U.S. Census Bureau reflects annual revisions that were released on July 1st. The second quarter 2014 is calculated using preliminary Census Bureau data and LIRA projections.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

34. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Third Quarter 2014 Published: October 2014
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Notes: The historical data from the U.S. Census Bureau reflects annual revisions that were released on July 1st. The third quarter 2014 is calculated using preliminary Census Bureau data and LIRA projections.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

35. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Fourth Quarter 2014 Published: January 2015
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Note: Historical data from the third quarter 2014 onward is based on the LIRA and will remain so until the Census Bureau releases annual revisions on July 1st.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

36. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – First Quarter 2015 Published: April 2015
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Note: Historical data from the third quarter 2014 onward is based on the LIRA and will remain so until the Census Bureau releases annual revisions on July 1st.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

37. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Second Quarter 2015 Published: July 2015
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Notes: (e) – estimated; (p) – projected. Historical data from the second quarter 2014 onward is estimated using the LIRA.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

38. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Third Quarter 2015 Published: October 2015
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Notes: (e) – estimated; (p) – projected. Historical data from the second quarter 2014 onward is estimated using the LIRA.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

39. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Fourth Quarter 2015 Published: January 2016
Homeowner Improvements
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Notes: (e) – estimated; (p) – projected. Historical data through the third quarter 2015 reflect significant revisions released by the US Census Bureau on For more information, see: The fourth quarter 2015 is calculated using preliminary Census Bureau data and LIRA projections.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

40. APRIL 2016
LIRA RE-BENCHMARKED TO AHS-BASED SPENDING ESTIMATES

41. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – First Quarter 2016 REBENCHMARKED TO AHS-BASED SERIES Published: April 2016
Homeowner Improvements & Repairs
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Notes: The former LIRA modeled homeowner improvement activity only, while the re-benchmarked LIRA models home improvement and repair activity. Historical estimates since 2013 are produced using the LIRA model until American Housing Survey data become available.

42. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Second Quarter 2016 Published: July 2016
Homeowner Improvements & Repairs
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Notes: The former LIRA modeled homeowner improvement activity only, while the re-benchmarked LIRA models home improvement and repair activity. Historical estimates since 2013 are produced using the LIRA model until American Housing Survey data become available.

43. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Third Quarter 2016 Published: October 2016
Homeowner Improvements & Repairs
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Notes: The former LIRA modeled homeowner improvement activity only, while the re-benchmarked LIRA models home improvement and repair activity. Historical estimates since 2013 are produced using the LIRA model until American Housing Survey data become available.

44. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Fourth Quarter 2016 Published: January 2017
Homeowner Improvements & Repairs
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Notes: The former LIRA modeled homeowner improvement activity only, while the re-benchmarked LIRA models home improvement and repair activity. Historical estimates since 2015 are produced using the LIRA model until American Housing Survey data become available.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

45. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – First Quarter 2017 Published: April 2017
Homeowner Improvements & Repairs
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Note: Historical estimates since 2015 are produced using the LIRA model until American Housing Survey data become available.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

46. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Second Quarter 2017 Published: July 2017
Homeowner Improvements & Repairs
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Note: Historical estimates since 2015 are produced using the LIRA model until American Housing Survey data become available.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

47. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Third Quarter 2017 Published: October 2017
Homeowner Improvements & Repairs
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Note: Historical estimates since 2015 are produced using the LIRA model until American Housing Survey data become available.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

48. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Fourth Quarter 2017 Published: January 2018
Homeowner Improvements & Repairs
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Note: Historical estimates since 2015 are produced using the LIRA model until American Housing Survey data become available.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

49. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – First Quarter 2018 Published: April 2018
Homeowner Improvements & Repairs
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Notes: Historical estimates since 2015 are produced using the LIRA model until American Housing Survey data become available.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.

50. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity – Second Quarter 2018 Published: July 2018
Homeowner Improvements & Repairs
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Notes: Historical estimates since 2015 are produced using the LIRA model until American Housing Survey data become available.
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies.