1. Mesa de Diálogo sobre la Evolución de la Energía Nuclear en España.
El suministro mundial de petróleo y gas natural: incertidumbres y desafíos Mariano Marzo (Facultat de Geologia, UB)
Mesa de Diálogo sobre la Evolución de la Energía Nuclear en España.
4ª Sesión Temática “La cobertura de la demanda energética en España y la energía nuclear”
Ministerio de Industria, Turismo y Comercio.
Madrid,

4. Basically since we have futures markets in oil, the expectations on long term price of oil were extraordinarily stable - at around 20$/bl. That meant that, at all times, and whatever the actual spot price was, oil prices were expected to come back (upwards, or downwards, depending on where it would be then) to that level.
The view of the market on future prices of oil has changed in the past 2 years. The market expects oil prices to still be around 60-70$/bl 5 years from now, and not to drift down to 20$/bl or somewhere in between.
11-S
Irak War

6. Ratio of Natural Gas Prices to Oil Price
IEA, WEO 2004

7. Downstream and upstream problems

8. The visible part of the iceberg

9. Cumulative oil and gas discoveries and new wildcat wells drilled, 1963-2002
World Energy Outlook 2004

10. Longwell,H.J., CEO ExxonMobil, 2002

11. Longwell,H.J., CEO ExxonMobil, 2002

12. A growing gap

13. AIE: Decline rates range from 5% to 11% per year
AIE: Decline rates range from 5% to 11% per year. By 2030, most oil production worldwide will come from capacity that is yet to be built
World Energy Outlook 2004

14. Depletion: world gas-production capacity additions
7.3 trillion cubic metres of new gas-production capacity will be needed over the next three decades (around 260 bcm a year).
Less than a third of this new capacity will go to meet rising demand.
IEA, WEO 2004

15. 2000-2030: 3x1012 US $ (E & P 70%) 105.000 x 106 per year / 287,7 x 106 per day
World Energy Outlook 2004

16. Cumulative investment in natural gas, 2003-2030
Cumulative investment needs for gas-supply infrastructure to 2030 will amount to $2.7 trillion,
or about $100 billion per year from now to 2030.
More than half will be for exploration and development of gas fields.
IEA, WEO 2004

17. Major net inter-regional oil trade flows (mb/d)
WEO 2004

19. “Choke points”
WEO 2004

20. Geopolitical uncertainties

21. Higher prices = more discoveries? Longwell,H.J., CEO ExxonMobil, 2002

23. Reserves: IOC’s vs NOC’s

24. Chinese and Indian NOC’s

25. The submerged part of the iceberg “peak oil and gas”

26. Pessimists (“Hubbertites”)
ASPO 2004

27. Optimists (“Cornucopias”)
1. This graph shows the mean resource volume (3,003 billion barrels) with the 3 different production growth rates.
2. A growth rate decrease of 1 percent (from 2 to 1 percent per year) delays the estimated production peak by 13 years. A growth rate increase of 1 percent (from 2 to 3 percent per year) accelerates the peak by 7 years.
3. Thus, EIA’s methodology indicates that a decrease of 1 percentage point in the growth rate has roughly the same effect on the estimated peak production year as adding 900 billion barrels to the resource base.
4. The 3 curves in this graph have initial declines after the peak year of 7.5 to 8.4 percent per year, gradually slowing to a decline of about 5 percent per year.
5. Incidentally, when this methodology is used to extend the reference case production curve in the IEO2000 beyond 2020 (1.9 percent per year growth rate, R/P = 10 decline rate), the estimated year of peak production is 2038 for the USGS mean resource level (3,003 billion barrels).

28. USGS (95%, 50% and 5%) vs the rest
Published Estimates of World Oil Ultimate Recovery
USGS 5% 2000
USGS Mean 2000
USGS 95% 2000
Campbell 1995
Masters 1994
Campbell 1992
Bookout 1989
Masters 1987
Martin 1984
Nehring 1982
Halbouty 1981
Meyerhoff 1979
Nehring 1978
Nelson 1977
Folinsbee 1976
1. This graph shows many estimates of world oil resources made since They have ranged from 600 billion to 3,896 billion barrels.
2. There is an overall increasing trend of ultimate recovery estimates over time. This trend is primarily due to increases in the quantity and quality of geological, geophysical, and reservoir engineering information, and to the development of more rigorous estimation methodologies.
3. For example, by 1959 Weeks' estimate had tripled from his 1948 estimate of 600 billion barrels to 2,000 billion barrels. The same kind of increase is observed in other cases in which the same estimators made successively larger estimates.
4. The largest world oil ultimate recovery estimates are the newly released USGS estimates. The USGS 95 percent probable value is 2,248 billion barrels (meaning there is a 19 out of 20 chance that the value will be greater than 2,248 billion barrels). Similarly, the USGS says there is a 5 percent probability (1 chance out of 20) that the value will exceed 3,896 billion barrels. The USGS mean estimate (the expected value) is 3,003 billion barrels.
5. There are a number of basins, especially in the Arctic and Antarctica, that were not included in the USGS world resource assessment because they were judged unlikely to add proved reserves during the next 30 years. Therefore, there is still some potential for even higher resource assessments.
Adams & Kirby 1975
Linden 1973
Moody 1972
Moody 1970
Shell 1968
Weeks 1959
MacNaughton 1953
Weeks 1948
Pratt 1942
0.5 1
1.5 2
2.5 3
3.5 4
Trillions of Barrels
Source: USGS and Colin Campbell
EIA 2004

29. SCIENCE, 18 NOVEMBER 2005, VOL 310