1. Methodological issues/challenges*
07/16/96
Methodological issues/challenges
Transport Sector Projects
John Rogers *

2. Transport Sector CDM Low-Hanging Fruit Requires “Exotic” Methodologies*
07/16/96
Transport Sector
CDM
Low-Hanging Fruit
Waste & Landfill Mgmt
Utilization of Gas
Leakage Reduction
Electricity Generation
Cement
Steam Optimization
Water Pumping
Requires “Exotic” Methodologies
More complicated to measure
Lower direct rewards
than current Low-Hanging Fruit
But most rapid growth sector
787 million motor vehicles (73% are cars) in 2002
1.5 billion metric tonnes of CO2e (≈21% of all-sector total)
Developing countries will contribute about 60% of the growth in total transport CO2e emissions worldwide,
Becomes more important as Low-Hanging Fruit is picked and packed
We should prepare the way
11/23/2018
Sources: WardsAuto.com, IPCC, IEA 2000, World Energy Outlook 2000, Peter Wiederkehr and Nadia Caïd, OECD Environment Directorate, August 2002 *

3. Mexico City BRT Pilot Project*
07/16/96
Mexico City BRT Pilot Project
Some existing CDM rules are not fully appropriate for transport projects
11/23/2018 *

4. Metrobús Insurgentes Pilot BRT Corridor 19.1 km / 34 stations*
07/16/96
Metrobús Insurgentes
Pilot BRT Corridor km / 34 stations
33 corridors planned
8 immediate
11/23/2018 *

5. Additionality: - Economic Transport Projects*
07/16/96
Additionality: - Economic Transport Projects
Small financial impact of CER revenues
NPV of CERs often low
Mexico BRT Pilot: 46 kton CO2e p.a.
< 6% of Investment
(5$/t CO2e, 10 years, 5% interest rate)
Public funds are often used
Financial barrier analysis can be difficult
Projects are often “political”
Project as pioneer for sector reforms (price, laws)
11/23/2018 *

6. Additionality: - Barriers Transport Projects*
07/16/96
Additionality: - Barriers Transport Projects
Technological/common practice barriers
Operation Barriers (Unions / Confederations)
Flag to rally-around and reach consensus
Carbon Revenues can finance centralized operational control and monitoring
11/23/2018 *

7. Additionality Problems Transportation Projects*
07/16/96
Additionality Problems Transportation Projects
Whilst a a Pilot project can clearly have barriers to implementation, these will more difficult to argue for each successive implementation; i.e:
Pilot BRT corridor (2 years negotiation)
Corridor 2 (easiest consensus)
Corridor “n”
Allowing additionality arguments on Infrastructure projects on a “Bundle of Projects” would make sense to the project developer.
Standardization of arguments desirable.
11/23/2018 *

8. Additionality: - Common Practice Transport Projects
The rules of Common Practice are not clear
Could critical thresholds be set?
i.e: when >20% of mass transport in a city is via BRT then common practice is established
For “political” projects, when should similar projects in other zones / cities constitute common practice?
Standardization of Arguments desirable
11/23/2018

9. Dynamic Baseline - 2 dimensions
Efficiency Effect:
CO2e emissions
per output unit
Development/
Growth Effect:
output
Baseline scenario must support growth: without project the activity level will rise by a similar amount
11/23/2018

10. Dynamic Baseline Activity
The NMB format does not easily adapt to a Dynamic Baseline developed from a historic “Status Quo” starting point.
Indexing PKT as function of population growth
Indexing VKT as a function of vehicle population numbers and usage growth
Using measured fleet characteristics in year “n”
Such that in year “n”, difference between dynamic baseline and Project activity is:
Rebound / New trip Creation
Modal Shift / Route changes
11/23/2018

11. Sustainable Transport
Many developing countries and cities have a mass-transport shortfall
+ further growth in mass-transport will be required to move towards sustainable transport (Motorcycles to Buses, Cars to Buses)
Requiring smelting of all removed vehicles is not practical in a growing mass-transport environment
11/23/2018

12. Sustainable Transport
It would be helpful if rules were defined
Which units could be used on other routes (Age, Technology, VKT change)
Displaced buses not on competing routes
Trickle-down mechanism
11/23/2018

13. Baseline Selection Project as pioneer for sector reforms
Urban Transport Infrastructure Projects are often “political”
Project as pioneer for sector reforms
Can often lead to “Binary” Decisions
Invest in this Project
Do Nothing (City invests in totally different project)
BAU rules could well be different in these projects than for baseline determination of private sector projects
Greater clarity in distinction between the baseline determination and additionality test
11/23/2018

14. Transport Methodologies can be complex
59 Variables / 38 formulae in Mexico City NMB / NMM
The “explanation and justification” sections are to assist the assessment by the Meth Panel and EB and are removed from the final version.
It would be useful to have a detailed “Explanation” section to aid assimilation of the NMB/NMM by other project participants as a “Stand-alone” document.
Two inter-related documents;
BL + PA Methodology & Monitoring
11/23/2018

15. Measurement Uncertainties and Optimization
A Clear differentiation is needed between:
Expanded Measurement Uncertainty (at lower 95th percentile confidence interval)
Ex-ante uncertainties in ERs
Measurement Optimization
Net Revenues from ER = (BL – PA) – Leakage – Expanded Uncertainty – Measurement Cost
11/23/2018

16. John Rogers Thank you jrogers@trafalgar-mexico.com * 07/16/96, .
11/23/2018 *