1. Southern “Wall of Wood”: What Are Tree Size Dynamics Indicating?
2012 National FIA User-Group Meeting
8 March 2012
Richard A. Harper, CF, RF
Forest Resource Analyst
USDA Forest Service
Southern Research Station
Forest Inventory and Analysis
Run in Slide Show (there are some hidden slides)

2. Focus Points
Brief history of harvest share, procurement strategies, and tree planting
Change of acres harvested by harvest types
Primary focus on subtle change by diameter class – total volume, number of trees, and net change (Net Growth – Removals)
Touch on FIA on-line tools issue regarding net growth by diameter/tree size.

3. U.S. Timber Harvest Share All Sources
2009
60%
24%
The South is the major producer of roundwood logs delivered to primary wood mills in the United States. The recent downturn in the economy has greatly influence production in each region. From 1996 to 2009, production in the South has declined 32%
16%
Sources: RPA 2006

4. Industrial Roundwood Output
Trends in Southern
Industrial Roundwood Output
Billion cubic feet
2009
Hardest hit sectors in the forest products manufacturing sector are sawtimber and veneer mills. Both of these types of mills use medium to large diameter trees.
Pulpwood and Other (domestic energy, engineered wood, poles, posts, mulch, shavings, other) as a group have remained relatively stable and are the processing facilities that use the same small diameter trees as bioenergy (although composite panel mills production did decline 21% from 2007 to 2009).

5. All Timberland – Public and Private
All timberland area has been relatively stable in the South while the total inventory volume has doubled since This is a strong indicator regarding the sustainability of wood supply in the South as a whole.

6. Individual/Family, Corporate, and Industry
Private Timberland
Individual/Family, Corporate, and Industry
The majority of wood supply is available from the timberland area and inventory volume on private land ownerships. The public lands are excluded in this chart. The data indicate a sustainable inventory on a relatively stable land base.

7. FIA Lag Time in 5 Panel Cycle South Carolina
Average year that all plots were collected in a 5-panel inventory.
Area and volume use all plots
NG, R, M use remeasured plots which are always less plots than the area and volume, and the calculation is from plots over two cycles.

8. Average Annual Net Growth and Removals compared to Inventory Live Tree Volume, South 2010 (All Private Ownerships, All Species)
Net growth, removals (harvest) and mortality are part of the components of change computed and are expressed as an average annual volume for the FIA survey period. These data give some indication of the dynamics associated with timber operations or natural disturbances (fire, insects, disease, others). The data used was for all States in the South, timberland, live trees, and all private ownership (industry, corporate, and individual/family).
The chart compares net growth and removals with inventory volume on the same scale. The difference of net growth and removals has influence on total inventory volume, but it is very small. It may take many years to see the influence of this relationship in the total inventory volume. For the South, net growth exceeds removals for softwood and hardwood regarding the 2010 data set and total inventory has increased over time (slides 3 and 4). Another indication that the total tree volume is on a sustainable path.
A second chart with just net growth, removals, and net change is included to better see the relationship on a normal scale.

9. Acres Planted in the South, 1945 - 2006
Down 23%
Tree planting area has declined sharply since FIA is working to update area planted, and recent nursery production data shows a 23% decline from 2007 to The South is back to the 1970 tree planting level.

10. 65%
Harvest Area
35%
Total softwood inventory was billion cubic feet in the South in Average annual harvests were 8.7 billion cubic feet or 6.6% of the total softwood inventory.
Hardwood inventory was billion cubic feet and harvests were 6.1 billion cubic feet (2.8% of the total hardwood inventory).
This presentation will focus on private ownership and the 5 species of southern yellow pine (SYP) – Loblolly, Slash, Longleaf, Shortleaf, and Virginia pine.
Of the total harvest area, 65% is from softwood stands and 35% is from hardwood stands.

11. Average Annual Acres Harvested by Harvest Type AL, GA, SC, TX, VA (softwood and hardwood)
50%
40%
10%
38%
20%
42%
Various silvicultural treatments are used to manage timberland. The three harvest treatments shown above indicate a shift regarding softwood (mostly pine) from final and partial harvests to thinning. Area of hardwood treatments did not change much in the last two decades.
In 2010, these three silvicultural treatments represent about 95% of the total area treated.

12. Percent Change of Average Annual Acres Harvested by Harvest Type (softwood and hardwood)

13. Change of Volume of SYP by DBH Class on Private Timberland – AL, GA, SC, TX, VA
Remember, total inventory for softwood and hardwood are at an all time high (slides 3 and 4). It might be expected that the SYP volume is continuing to show increase over the last two decades when tree planting hit record highs in the 1980s through 2000 (slide 9). Inventory volume by DBH class gives the best indication of the most current change. The following demonstrates how volume varies by State.

14. Inventory Volume of SYP by DBH Class on Private Ownership, Georgia

15. Inventory Volume of SYP by DBH Class on Private Ownership, South Carolina

16. Number of Trees of SYP by DBH Class on Private Ownership, South Carolina

17. Number of Trees of SYP by DBH Class on Private Ownership, Georgia
The change in the number of trees give some indication of future volume, but not conclusive by itself. Knowing that tree planting (slide 9) and final harvest (slide 11) have declined, and the area of thinning has increased, there should be some expectation that the number of trees would likely be in decline. However, not all States are showing an decrease in the number of trees.

18. Percent Change of Removals Volume (SYP on Private Timberland)
There has been a marked increase in the removals volume by small diameter classs during the last decade.

19. Average Annual Net Change, 2010 (Net Growth minus Removals) (SYP on Private Timberland)
Net Growth, Removals, and Mortality give an indication of the dynamics in the forest and are expressed in average annual volume for the FIA survey period. Typically, pulpwood, engineered, and bioenergy products are manufactured from the small tree size classes (mostly 5.0- to 8.9-inch diameter classes). To determine if the timber volume is on a sustainable path, net change is calculated (net growth minus removals). If the net growth is positive, the forest should be adding volume annually to the total inventory volume and considered to be on a sustainable track. This slide shows that three States (GA, SC, and VA) are experiencing a break-even or negative net change for the small diameter classes. Looking at the total volume by diameter class (slides 14-15), it is evident that SC experiencing decline in the 6-inch diameter class and GA’s 6” total volume may have peaked.

20. There has been no discussion on planted pine stands.
The chart is comparing planted pine to total pine --- the percent of planted pine to all pine (planted and natural timber stands = total pine).
The message from this chart is that the planted pine stands are receiving increased harvest pressure over time (1989 to 2009).
More planted area is being harvested --- from 65% to 83% (blue line)
More volume being harvested --- from 31% to 66% (red line)
Net growth is still increasing but at a lesser rate % to 72% (green line)
Net growth divided by removal has recently declined, but still shows net growth exceeding removals (dashed purple line).

21. FIA Lag Time in 5 Panel Cycle South Carolina

22. Average Annual Net Growth and Removals Compared to Inventory Live Tree Volume, South Carolina 2010 (SYP, All Private Ownerships)
New Industry
Since 2008
Current Net Growth and Removals do not reflect recent new industry impact in Removals.

23. Average Annual Net Growth and Removals Compared to Inventory Live Tree Volume, AL, GA, SC, TX, VA 2010 (SYP on Private Timberland)
A caution has been issued by FIA regarding queries for net growth by diameter class. Currently, FIDO and EVALIDator do not provide an accurate value as demonstrated in this slide and the following slide. (See “User Alerts” for more information at
FIA compilation tools do not properly account for the transition of trees from the initial diameter class to the final diameter class during the remeasurement period. This is especially true for small diameter classes (5 through 10 inch diameter classes and for fast growing species.
User’s are asked to contact the Regional FIA offices and request tables of net growth by diameter class and stand size queries.

24. Overstatement of 27.7 Million Tons a Year
Demonstration of Overstated Average Annual Net Growth to Removals in AL, GA, SC, TX, VA 2010 (SYP on Private Timberland)
NG Overstated
Overstatement of
27.7 Million Tons a Year
This slide further demonstrates the magnitude of the online queries for net growth by diameter class (includes stand size).
It should be noted that net growth total volume queries are correctly computed with online FIA Tools.

25. Take Home Points “Everyone” wants small diameter wood.
SYP 6”+8” DBH removals increased 82% in SC in last decade.
Area of harvest type shift – mainly thinnings
Tree planting decline – nowhere to plant or landowners not reinvesting, or both?
Apparent decline in the number of trees and total volume by DBH in some States.

26. Take Home Points (con’t)
Net growth to removals at break-even in 6” to 8” diameter classes
Total volume be DBH class shows decline in some States and in some 75 to 100 mile radius around procurement areas.
Will landowners plan for “short rotation”?
EDRR (early detection rapid response)
For now – do not query for NG by DBH

27. Questions This is how I like to store my woody feed-stock…
Thank you for your interest in the FIA data and this presentation. Richard Harper