1. Post-16 progression to technical and vocational education: the impact of accountability measures on low and middle attainers
Lynne Rogers and Ken Spours
Centre for Post-14 Education and Work
UCL Institute of Education

2. The issue Progression to technical and vocational education
The majority of 16 to 18-year-olds do not take the ‘royal’ route of A Levels to Higher Education
RPA should provide all learners will meaningful progression opportunities
Complexity of current vocational pathways – T Levels may simplify this
Changes to 16+ accountability and assessment may ‘exclude’ middle and lower attainers 

3. Trends over time
Rogers and Spours (in progress)

4. Four phases/systems
Phase 1 Initial expansion (1987/8-1993/4) – rapid movement from mixed to full-time education and training
Phase 2 System slowdown ( ) – initial expansion curtailed by Conservative qualifications reform – medium participation and attainment system
Phase 3 System growth ( ) – New Labour policies rapid expansion of attainment and participation benefiting the ‘middle attainer’
Phase 4 System stagnation (2013-present) – impact of Conservative policies leads to plateauing of wide range of attainment indicators: these may adversely impact on middle and lower attainers and their progression

5. Phase present
Conservative policy retrenchment and system stagnation
Gove reforms of 2010 taking effect
Reformed qualifications more ‘rigorous’ - demise of modularity; end-of-course examinations
Non EBacc quals only count as 1 GCSE
Reformed GCSEs - a numbered grading scale 1 (lowest) to 9 (highest) - may favour schools with higher ability intakes (Treadaway, 2015) or not (Smith, 2015)
Removal of tiered entry
Continued reduction of ‘other’ Ebacc and vocational quals unless seen as high value

6. GCSE A*-C all subjects: anchor measure
Year
A*-C/9-4
2009/2010
70.8
2010/2011
72.3
2011/2012
72.7
2012/2013
72.2
2013/2014
70.9
2014/2015
2015/2016
69.4
2016/2017
68.5
Source: DfE, 2017 Subject time series table

7. Average number of entries
Source: DfE, 2017

8. Ongoing methodological issues Anchor measure A*-C/9-4 falling
GCSE
Ongoing methodological issues
Anchor measure A*-C/9-4 falling
Entry rates may have plateaued
Higher attainers entry rate falling
Middle attainers entry rate unlikely to change due to MFL
Low attainers uncertain
Regrading – the ‘wrong’ kind of pass

9. EBacc entry pattern: subjects

10. EBacc latest data – plateaued
Source: DfE, 2017

11. Entry pattern: no. of slots
Source: DfE, 2017

12. Entry to the EBacc has levelled off – unlikely to increase
Increased participation has not been matched by an equivalent rise in attainment
Attainment may fall further due to reformed GCSEs
Schools incentivised to offer certain qualifications – continued fall in other quals for low attainers
Issue is the embedding of EBacc in Progress 8

13. Progress 8 Major impact on both participation and attainment levels
Schools incentivized to enter students for EBacc subjects [and high value other] even when these may be inappropriate and when students are likely to do significantly less well in them than in subjects not included in Progress 8
Norm-referenced: increased competition and gaming
Value added (see Perry, 2016 for a critique)
Lower attaining students being entered for more qualifications, without significantly higher levels of attainment among this group

14. Institutional behaviours
Exclusionary behaviours
Rise in exclusions
Managed moves
Educated at home
Alternative Provision
‘Off-rolling’ (Ofsted, 2017)
Gaming behaviours
Wolf report
Schools systematically maximising their points – at the expense of students best interests
Young people being ‘pushed out’

15. Middle and lower attainers 2016/17
Key Stage 4 performance tables:
Low attaining = those below Level 4 in the KS2 tests
Middle attaining = those at Level 4 in the KS2 tests
High attaining = those above Level 4 in the KS2 tests
England
% of KS 4 cohort
No. of KS 4 pupils
English & maths GCSE 5/C or above
Achieved EBacc grades 5/C or above
Entered EBacc
Low attainers
14.13%
70287
2.30%
0.50%
8.00%
Middle attainers
44.20%
220652
24.20%
7.70%
29.10%
High attainers
41.70%
207861
76.70%
43.00%
58.30%

16. Post-16 progression ‘exclusion’
Many learners have not always attained well in traditional examined courses
Constrained GCSE curricula offer creates problems for the next step – lack of vocational qualification may necessitate a Level 1 start
Schools and sixth form colleges raising thresholds for A Level participation
Drop out at age 17+
Previous churn of Level 2 qualifications Post-16
Implementation of T Levels
cannot access Level 3 T levels
T Levels may be too big a risk

17. Sustained RPA: middle/lower attainers
The evidence suggests:
Changes to GCSEs, EBacc and Progress 8 affect the number of young people reaching the progression threshold to Level 3 post-16
Raised progression thresholds for Level 3 A Levels and vocational qualifications (T-Levels)
Translation of reforms by schools and colleges
As entry to Level 3 becomes more restricted, how will middle and lower attainers progress to higher levels of learning?

18. References
DfE (2017) Provisional GCSE and equivalent results in England, 2016 to SFR57/2017. London: DfE.
Gill, T. (2017) The impact of the introduction of Progress 8 on the uptake and provision of qualifications in English schools. Cambridge Assessment Research Report. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Assessment.
Ofsted (2017) School inspection update March 2017 Issue 9. London: Ofsted.
Perry, T. (2016) English Value-Added Measures: Examining the Limitations of School Performance Measurement. British Educational Research Journal, 42, (6) 1056–1080.
Treadaway, M. (2015) ‘Getting from B to A (or G to F)’. Online. (accessed 8 January 2017).
Sims, S. (2017) ‘Provisional KS4 data 2017: Comparing strong and standard GCSE pass rates’. London: Education Datalab.
Smith, L. (2015) Understanding and using Progress 8 and other features of the new GCSE English examinations. London: King’s College London.