1. MLOSB TSL Forest Management Plan Timber Supply Analysis Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions
November 24, 2016
Meadow Lake Oriented Strand Board
Term Supply Licence
2018 Forest Management Plan
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

2. Outline / Overview Landbase Growth and Yield Natural Forest Patterns
What’s left to complete
November 24, 2016
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

3. Land Base Definition November 24, 2016
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

4. TSL - Location Total area: 203,929 ha Productive: 136,367 ha
Three areas (Sled/Green, Bronson, Makwa)
November 24, 2016
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

5. Ecoregions Primarily Mid-Boreal Upland November 24, 2016
Boreal Transition
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions
Mid-Boreal Upland
Primarily Mid-Boreal Upland

6. TSL Inventory
SFVI inventory based on 1999 and 2004 photographs (93% of landbase)
UTM inventory based on 1981 photographs (7% of landbase)
250 hectares without inventory
November 24, 2016
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

7. Inventory Updates Site Index Harvest Depletions Fire Depletions
129,663 ha (95%) assigned using curves from the “Saskatchewan Inventory Site Index Project”
Remainder assigned using “best fit” weighted site index
Harvest Depletions
Updated for harvest since 2004 using MLOSB records
Fire Depletions
451 forested hectares depleted for fires not already in inventory
Reforestation
MLOSB records examined to confirm satisfactory restocking
Reforestation to previous species composition
“C” density for all stands harvested by MLOSB
November 24, 2016
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions
Site index – can you give me an easy explanation to describe to the PAG and a sample curve
Fire depletions – 451 hectares burned since inventory done (i.e. new fires). Just confirming…

8. Inventory Updates Sled/Green Lake Fire Mistyping
Much of area burned in 1995 is mistyped as non-forest in the SFVI
Field confirmed that areas previously typed as forest in UTM are growing back as forest
Used older UTM forest types to update 5,956 hectares of burned “non-forest” areas in the SFVI
November 24, 2016
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions
Can you put in a PDF map of where this fire was? Maybe next slide. They like pictures.

9. Age Class Distribution in the TSL
November 24, 2016
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions
- What is non net landbase? The forested landbase that is not part of the THLB

10. Site Index Distribution in the TSL
November 24, 2016
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions
Need a definition of site index. Maybe an example of a high site index area vs low. Just to add context.

11. Land Base NETDOWN
November 24, 2016
Many of the inputs are available on the following webmap:
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

12. Landbase Netdown Process
Begin with the Gross Area of the Landbase
Systematically apply criteria using a hierarchy to:
Define the “Managed Forest Landbase”
Forested area that is used to meet forest management objectives
Define the “Timber Harvesting Landbase”
Subset of the managed forest landbase that is available to support timber harvesting activities
Use hierarchy to ensure there is no double counting of area
The “effective area” is the area reduction after accounting for areas already removed from the landbase
November 24, 2016
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

13. Netdown Table Overview (details to follow)
November 24, 2016
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

14. Start the Process…..
Begin by removing areas within the TSL boundary that are not available for forest management
November 24, 2016
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

15. Non-TSL Lands Private land (794 hectares)
Beatty Lake Recreation Site (130 hectares)
November 24, 2016
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

16. Dispositions As per TSL licence document
Some, such as cabins are buffered by 100 meters
November 24, 2016
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

17. Non-Forested Lands
Areas that are not classified as productive forest in the inventory
November 24, 2016
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

18. Existing Roads, Trails and Utility Corridors
Only considered corridors not already typed as a polygon in the forest inventory
Did not consider seismic lines
November 24, 2016
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

19. Managed Forest Landbase
The above netdowns (67,562 hectares) leave us with the managed forest landbase, as summarized below:
November 24, 2016
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

20. Netdowns to Managed Forest Landbase
Now that we have the forested area that is managed by MLOSB, we remove additional areas that will generally not be available for harvest
Result will be the Timber Harvesting Landbase, or Net Landbase
November 24, 2016
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

21. Steep Slopes
Areas classified as “S”, or steep using the inventory “TOPO_CLASS” attribute were deemed to be inoperable
Total area : 3,502 hectares
Effective area: 2,733 hectares
November 24, 2016
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions
Can you put a hyperlink to the interactive webmap – I think they would like this…

22. Riparian Buffers
MLOSB, Forest Service, and Fish & Wildlife staff reviewed spatial lakes, rivers, and stream data and classified them into:
90 metre buffer
30 metre buffer
15 metre buffer
No buffer
November 24, 2016
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions
Add comment regarding this being reviewed by Fish and Wildlife (fisheries guy)

23. Riparian Classification
November 24, 2016
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

24. Petroglyph Site One petroglyph site was identified and removed
Gross area: hectares
Effective area: 8 hectares
November 24, 2016
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions
Effective area definition – just want to be clear that this is the forested area impacted…

25. Non-Commercial Stands
Stands that are uneconomic to harvest, as follows:
Low Density:
Mature stands at the time of photography with <= 30% crown closure
Non Commercial Species:
Stands with Tamarack as the leading species
Low Productivity (Site Index)
Stands that do not reach 15 metres in height at 100 years old
Use site index to identify these stands
Low Productivity (Volume)
Stands that do not reach 60 m3 / ha at 100 years old
November 24, 2016
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

26. Non-Commercial Stands
November 24, 2016
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

27. Isolated Patches
Stands that are less than 5 hectares in size and more than 100 metres away from other contributing forest or an existing road
Effective area: hectares
November 24, 2016
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

28. Spatial Timber Harvesting Landbase
The above netdowns (67,562 ha non-forest + 19,022 ha forested) leave us with the timber harvesting landbase that can be spatially identified in the dataset, as follows:
November 24, 2016
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions
What is the total hectares of netdown? 67,562 of non forest, etc. 19,022 ha of forest

29. Spatial THLB (Sled/Green Lake)
November 24, 2016
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

30. Spatial THLB (Makwa/Bronson)
November 24, 2016
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

31. Non Spatial Netdowns – Stand Level Retention
6% of the Net Landbase
November 24, 2016
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

32. Non Spatial Netdowns – Future Roads
Very little additional permanent road is required
20.4 km (Makwa)
12.0 km (Bronson)
Normally would be handled as a yield table reduction for regenerating stands
Negligible, so will not be modelled
November 24, 2016
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

33. Growth and Yield – Yield Groups
Stands are classified into “Yield Groups” in order to generate yield tables
The Timber Harvesting Landbase was stratified into 48 yield groups using the following attributes:
Ecoregion
Development type (i.e. species)
Density
Site Index
For example…..
All Aspen stands in the Mid Boreal Upland with the following attributes were assigned to a single Yield Group
Density “A” or Density “B”
Site Index >= 17 and Site Index < 19
November 24, 2016
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions
I will lose them on this slide . Can you show me an example of a yield group or table. Put in a yield group description, yield table example, etc.

34. Growth and Yield – Yield Tables
A yield table was then generated for each Yield Group
There are specific equations for each combination of Ecoregion, species, and density
Site Index is the other key variable required (i.e. calculate the average site index for each Yield Group)
Yield tables provide an estimate of the volume and product types for the stand at any defined age
Yield tables are key for modelling as they allow us to predict what volumes will be available for harvesting as stands grow, regenerate, or break-up over the 200 year planning horizon
November 24, 2016
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

35. November 24, 2016
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

36. November 24, 2016
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

37. Example Yield Table # 1 Ecoregion: Mid Boreal Upland
Development Type : SjP
Density: “CD”
Site Index: >= 10 and < 17
November 24, 2016
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

38. Example Yield Table # 2 Ecoregion: Boreal Transition
Development Type: tA
Density: “CD”
Site Index: >= 16
November 24, 2016
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

39. Operability Windows Minimum age based on: Maximum age based on:
Minimum 60 m3/ha
At least 95% of culmination MAI
H Stands : Hardwood MAI
S Stands: Softwood MAI
HS/SH : Total MAI
Minimum 60 years for H/HS
Minimum 70 years for S/SH with Jack Pine
Minimum 80 years for S/SH with White Spruce
Maximum age based on:
At least 50% of Peak Volume
At least 60 m3/ha
November 24, 2016
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

40. Example Operability/Transition
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Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

41. Natural Forest Patterns – Event Size
November 24, 2016
Current Condition
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions
Harvesting

42. Natural Forest Patterns – Old/Very Old
November 24, 2016
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions
For the Productive Forested Landbase

43. Remaining to do…… Finish growth and yield assumptions:
Successional pathways
Define how natural disturbance (e.g. fire/insects) will be handled
Finalize Non-timber Objectives and Targets, such as:
Old/Very Old Forest Requirements
Natural Forest Patterns and event sizes
Woodland Caribou
Other wildlife habitat such (e.g fisher, moose, marten)
November 24, 2016
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions

44. FMP Schedule Planning Inventory submission*: Dec 30, 2016
Growth and Yield Projections: Jan 27, 2017
SGR’s and Transition Rules Jan 27, 2017
VOITs June 30, 2017
Modelling Assumptions: Feb 28, 2017
Forest Estate Modelling Report (Volume 2) June 30, 2017
Draft FMP – Volume 3 Sept 1, 2017
FMP – Volume 3 Public Review Sept 15, 2017
Final FMP – Volume 3 Submission Nov 10, 2017
* Planning inventory is the spatial data file used in the analysis
November 24, 2016
Forest Estate Modelling Assumptions