2. “GHG Data – 2006” Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Data for 1990–2004
Bonn, Germany
30 October 2006
“GHG Data – 2006” Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Data for 1990–2004
by Sergey KONONOV Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Bonn, Germany
23 November 2018

3. Introduction: what it is all about?
Annex I Parties ( ‘developed’ / ‘industrialized’ countries)
2006 submission of GHG data (by 15 April)
This year: GHG emissions for 1990–2004
(industrialized countries only, 41 countries)
What’s new:
– full data for all 41 (!) countries (first time since 1998)
– new set of data for Russia
– data for Turkey for the 1st time
23 November 2018

4. 1. GHG trends 1990–2004 and KP targets by country
Changes vary greatly: from –60.4% (Lithuania) to +72.6% (Turkey)
EITs: mostly below KP targets; non-EITs: some close, some not
23 November 2018

5. 2. GHG trends 1990–2004 / 2000–2004
+11.0
Since 2000, GHG emissions increased:
- in EITs by 4.1%
- in non-EITs by 2.0%
- in total by 2.4%
–3.3
–36.8
1) All industrialized countries: –3.3% => total below 1990 level
2) EITs: –36.8% / non-EITs: +11.0% => EITs down, non-EITs up
3) Trends: decreasing/increasing emissions… where and why?
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6. 3. Sectoral changes in GHG emissions (all countries)
1) Successful emission reductions in industry, agriculture, waste: - from policy actions, economic restructuring, technology changes
2) Much more modest decrease for energy, only –0.4%: - mostly because … =>
23 November 2018

7. 4. Transport: challenge for GHG mitigation
Increase by 52.0%
Increase by 3.4%
– international
Increase by 23.9%
Trend: continuing emissions growth in transport – both domestic and …
23 November 2018

8. 5. Trends in detail for some countries: selection?
Canada
Australia
Hungary
Ukraine
Liechtenstein
Portugal
Japan
Monaco
Bulgaria
Combined trends for 15 countries
Italy
Spain
Ireland
Greece
Slovakia
European Community
Lithuania
Austria
Germany
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Switzerland
Turkey
Finland
New Zealand
Non-EIT country with greatest GHG decreases;
UNFCCC host country
Latvia
New UNFCCC Party (since 2004); first GHG data in 2006
Belgium
Czech Republic
Norway
Belarus
France
Poland
Slovenia
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Romania
Estonia
Sweden
Russian Federation
United States of America
Sweden
Denmark
Iceland
EIT country with greatest emissions; new data in 2006
Industrialized country with greatest GHG emissions (39% in 2004)
Croatia
23 November 2018

9. Germany = non-EIT country with greatest emission decreases since 1990
GHG trend for Germany
Germany = non-EIT country with greatest emission decreases since 1990
2000 – 2004:
GDP = +2.5%
GHG emissions = -0.7%
1990 – 2004:
GDP = +28.6%
GHG emissions = -17.2%
-17.2%
KP target = -21%
Trends: steep declines in 1990–1994 and 1996 –1999: fluctuations after 2000
23 November 2018
GDP and population data are from the World Bank; emissions data are from UNFCCC

10. GHG trend for United States of America
US = industrialized country with greatest GHG emissions (39% in 2004)
+15.8%
2000 – 2004:
GDP = +11.7%
GHG emissions = +1.3%
1990 – 2004:
GDP = +51.2%
GHG emissions = +15.8%
Trends: slower increase after 2000; slower emission increase compared to GDP
23 November 2018
GDP and population data are from the World Bank; emissions data are from UNFCCC

11. GHG trend for European Community
EC = a combined trend for 15 member States of the European Union
-0.6%
KP target = -8%
1990 – 2004:
GDP = +33.3%
GHG emissions = -0.6%
2000 – 2004:
GDP = +6.6%
GHG emissions = +2.4%
Trends: fluctuations with overall decrease; some increase after 2000 (slower than GDP)
23 November 2018
GDP and population data are from the IEA; emissions data are from UNFCCC

12. GHG trend for Russian Federation
Russia = industrialized country with 2nd greatest GHG emissions (11% in 2004); also EIT country with greatest emissions
2000 – 2004:
GDP = +26.1%
GHG emissions = +4.1%
1990 – 2004:
GDP = -13.1%
GHG emissions = -32.0%
-32.0%
KP target = 0%
Trends: decrease until => slow emission increase after 2000
Earlier extrapolation: -38.5% in 2003, now real data: -32.0% in 2004.
23 November 2018
GDP and population data are from the World Bank; emissions data are from UNFCCC

13. GHG trend for Turkey
Turkey = new Annex I Party to the Convention (since 2004);
Party with a rapid economic growth
+72.6%
2000 – 2004:
GDP = +16.4%
GHG emissions = +5.3%
1990 – 2004:
GDP = +65.9%
GHG emissions = +72.6%
Trends: slower increase after 2000; slower emission decrease than that of GDP
23 November 2018
GDP and population data are from the World Bank; emissions data are from UNFCCC

14. Summary
Good news:
In 2004, emissions from industrialized countries were below 1990 level by 3.3%
GHG decrease 1990–2004 is combined with economic growth
Not so good news:
Emissions from industrialized countries increasing since 2000 (EITs and non-EITs)
Energy-relating emissions growing, mostly due to transport; emission reductions in transport are needed but seem to be especially difficult to achieve
But:
Positive development: less and less emissions per GDP unit (decoupling continues)
Also:
The GHG data submitted under the Climate Change Convention are a reliable basis for assessing progress in emission reductions
23 November 2018