1. GEOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF RISK MANAGEMENT IN OIL SHALE MINING
Jüri-Rivaldo Pastarus, Katrin Erg and Sergei Sabanov
Tallinn University of Technology, Department of Mining
Erik Väli, Oleg Nikitin and Tarmo Tohver
Estonian Oil Shale Mining Company, AS Eesti Põlevkivi

2. Objective
To evaluate the usability of the risk assessment / management methodology in oil shale mining
To estimate the pobability of geological aspects

3. Oil shale mining in NE Estonia

4. Geology

5. Room-and-pillar mining

6. Open cast mining

7. Risk assessment / management process

8. Probability estimation
Analytical approach
Uses logical models for calculating probabilities
Empirical approach
Uses existing databases to generate probability
Judgmental approach
Uses experience of practicing engineers

9. Geological and technological aspects of underground mining

10. Event tree

11. Collapse of immediate roof
Acceptable risk level is 1 x 10-3… 1 x 10-2

12. Collapses

13. Collapses

14. Collapses

15. Conclusions
Risk management method allows to predict probability of the geological feature at the interested location.
Receipt of information allows specialists to mitigate negative influence on the excavation process and environment

16. Acknowledgment
Estonian Science Foundation (Grant #6558, 2006 – 2009) supported the research
Thank you for your attention!