1. Access and Affordability: What Heads & Trustees Need to Know
CAIS Trustee/School Head Conference
January 27, 2018
Mark J. Mitchell Vice President, NAIS

2. How Does Our Price Affect Our Ability to Enroll the Best Students
For Our Mission?

3. What Heads and Trustees Need to Know
What it means to be “affordable”
Dynamics of the evolving applicant and recipient pools
Data markers reflecting affordability pressure
Strategic responses

4. Avg Tuition, All Grades 2016-17
Who Can Afford It?
Avg Tuition, All Grades
Full-Pay Income
NAIS Day
$25,579
$176,030
CAIS Day
$28,982
$186,885
NAIS Bdg
$55,250
$280,620
CAIS Bdg
$54,591
$275,370
US Median: $68,272
Source: NAIS Demographic Ctr
In California (2017),
Median HH income = $74,950
12.4% earn over $200K
In Los Angeles (2017),
Median HH income = $73,889
12.5% earn over $200K
In San Francisco (2017),
Median HH income = $95,276
19.6% earn over $200K
Sources: Tuition data from NAIS DASL; Full-pay income based on SSS EFC Simulator (Assumptions: 2 working parents, 2 children, 1 child enrolled, one parent earns $25K, no net worth, standard taxes, OH residents for NAIS calcs, CA residents for CA calcs, no COLA)

5. Pct Change in Income and Tuition in California
By 2022…
In California, median income projected to grow 26.5%
In San Francisco metro, median HH income projected to grow 24.3%
In Los Angeles metro, median HH income projected to grow 26.5%
Nationally, median HH income projected to grow 26.7%
Sources: NAIS Demographic Center for income data; NAIS DASL for tuition data

6. Pace of Change
Data sources: NAIS DASL, US Census Dept

7. The Evolving Applicant Pool
Range of Total Family Income
% of Filers
Source: SSS By NAIS PFS Filer Pool. Reflects total income from all sources, before taxes or allowances, as reported by families on the PFS submitted.

8. The Evolving Recipient Pool
Source: SSS processing system database; analysis of 35,000 financial aid awards in each year

9. Delivering on Purpose?
Source: SSS State of Financial Aid Survey, 2016

10. People Are Grappling With…
Lower school demand…the financial aid dilemma
Millennial parents…values and preferences
Financial aid terminology…Indexed, Individualized, Sliding Scale, Flexible Tuition

11. Affordability
Markers

12. Total Enrollment 5-Yr Chg NAIS 2.2% CAIS -0.5%
Source: NAIS DASL, cohort sample

13. Fin Aid Activity, Completed Applications
5-Yr Chg
NAIS
-9.6%
CAIS
-21.3%
Source: NAIS DASL, cohort sample

14. Financial Aid Activity, % Enrolled Rec’g Need-Based Aid
Source: NAIS DASL, cohort sample

15. Fin Aid Activity, Avg Grant
5-Yr Chg
NAIS
21.2%
CAIS
25.8%
Source: NAIS DASL, cohort sample

16. Day Tuition Average—All Grades
5-Yr Chg
NAIS
22.5%
CAIS
26.6%
Source: NAIS DASL, cohort sample

17. Bdg Tuition Average, All Grades
5-Yr Chg
NAIS
23.1%
CAIS
20.6%
Source: NAIS DASL, cohort sample

18. Financial Aid Activity, Discount Rate
Source: NAIS DASL, cohort sample

19. Net Tuition Revenue NAIS 19.4% CAIS 25.7%
Source: NAIS DASL, cohort sample

20. Compared to all NAIS schools, CAIS schools see…
The 5-Yr Trending Upshot
Compared to all NAIS schools, CAIS schools see…
Steeper growth in day tuition/fees, slower growth in bdg tuition/fees
Steeper growth in avg fin aid grant
Day tuition growth outpacing growth in avg financial aid grant
Steeper decline in fin aid applications rec’d
Decline in number and % of students enrolled rec’g fin aid
Steeper growth in net tuition revenue, slower growth in discount rate
Enrollment flatness, slight decline

21. The schools that apply strategic thinking to financial aid…
Responding Strategically
The schools that apply strategic thinking to financial aid…
Identify and articulate the primary purpose and goal of financial aid investment
Clearly define terms and desired outcomes
Understand key internal and external markers of affordability pressure
Provide the resources and flexibility needed for impact

22. Net Tuition Revenue Goal
Meet enrollment,
Miss NTR
Price, value proposition?
Meet enrollment,
Meet NTR
Composition, mission-appropriate?
Enrollment Goal
Miss enrollment,
Miss NTR
Market capacity, fin aid limits?
Miss enrollment,
Meet NTR
Diversity, outreach?
Net Tuition Revenue Goal

23. Your Role
“…stick vigilantly to your purpose, but be nimble about how you get there”
edelements.com
Don’t…
Make or discuss individual award decisions
Overprescribe specific practices or tactics
Resort to “opinion-rich” decision making
Misalign intent, resources, and expectations
Do…
Affirm purpose, set dashboards and monitor progress
Understand and plan for external trends and realities
Specify and diversify sources of aid funding
Support the voice and professionalism of the admission and financial aid leaders

24. Mark J. Mitchell, NAIS Vice President mitchell@nais.org, 202-973-9766