1. DELWP Regional Research
including A Regional Career - Migration histories survey, Bendigo and Ballarat
David Sykes
Principal Demographer
30 June 2017

2. Land Use & Population Research Census 2016
Overview
Land Use & Population Research
Census 2016
A Regional Career – migration histories survey, Bendigo & Ballarat

3. Victorian Population (ERP) rebased upwards by 100,000+
Following each Census ABS rebases the population, replacing the previous estimates which were ‘modelled forward’ from the 2011 Census-based total
Estimated Resident Population, Victoria, Original and Rebased
Rebased
Original
Source: Time Series Profile, ABS Census 2016; Australian Demographic Statistics (ABS )

4. Change in Usual Resident Population by LGA, 2011-16
Source: Time Series Profile, ABS Census 2016

5. Census growth higher than previous estimates
ERP2016 = Estimated Resident Population for 30 June 2016, published March 2017, based on 2011 Census and components of population change
Source: Time Series Profile, ABS Census 2016; Australian Demographic Statistics (ABS )

6. Four geographic areas Victoria Latrobe-Gippsland SA4 Bass Coast LGA
PAKENHAM
WARRAGUL
MORWELL
Victoria
Latrobe-Gippsland SA4
Bass Coast LGA
Wonthaggi-Inverloch SA2
PHILLIP ISLAND
WONTHAGGI
INVERLOCH
WILSONS
PROMONTORY

7. Census 2016 – Key indicators
Source: Time Series Profile, ABS Census 2016

8. Census 2016 – Country of birth
Source: Time Series Profile, ABS Census 2016

9. Census 2016 – Language spoken at home
Source: Time Series Profile, ABS Census 2016

10. Census 2016 – Religious affiliation
39%
40%
36%
32%
49%
48%
51%
48%
Source: Time Series Profile, ABS Census 2016

11. Change in age structure, Usual Resident Population, 2006-16
Ballarat LGA
Greater Bendigo LGA
Source: Time Series Profile, ABS Census 2016

12. A Regional Career – migration histories survey, Ballarat & Bendigo
Presented on behalf of: Fiona McKenzie Principal Researcher

13. The project
Government interest - understanding the characteristics of individuals who end up in regional areas can inform attraction and retention strategies.
Those who have high levels of human capital (skills and education) are of particular interest for future regional economic development, hence the focus on professional workers
Retrospective approach - pathways of professionals now living in non-metro
Survey undertaken in Bendigo (2015) and Ballarat (2016)
Three workplaces in each location:
Local Council
Local Health Service
Private sector firm (Bendigo Bank; IBM Ballarat)
In total – 1,271 responses (537 from Ballarat and 734 from Bendigo)

14. The survey samples

15. Location where higher degrees obtained
Location where bachelor and postgraduate degrees were obtained, Ballarat and Bendigo samples

16. Life stages and locations
Birth
Childhood
Secondary Education
Highest Qualification
2015/ 2016
LIFE STAGE
LOCATION
Location #1
Location #2
Location #3
Location #4
Bendigo/ Ballarat
B: Ballarat/Bendigo
M: Metropolitan (Melbourne and interstate)
R: Regional (Victoria and interstate, excl. Bendigo/Ballarat)
O: Overseas

17. What the migration codes [might] mean
BBBB [B] Ballarat born and bred
BBBM [B] Ballarat returners
RRRB [B] Moving in from the regions for higher education
RRRR [B] Moving in from the regions for work
MMMM [B] Tree changers? or professional nurseries?
(age related)
OOOO [B] Overseas migrant
OOOM [B] Overseas migrant / student via Melbourne
OOOB [B] Overseas student

18. Migration pathways
Ballarat born & bred

19. Reasons for moving to Ballarat and Bendigo

20. Advantages of living in Ballarat and Bendigo

21. Disadvantages of living in Ballarat and Bendigo

22. Stay or leave? Intention to stay or leave by organisation
Intention to stay or leave by age (combined sample)

23. Destination for those intending to leave
Destination for those intending to leave, combined sample

24. Summary of key points
The surveys revealed that many professionals working in regional locations have regional backgrounds.
For those who had moved to Bendigo or Ballarat, it was most commonly for family reasons: following a spouse or partner; wishing to raise children in the country; or returning to the region of birth.
These motivations highlight the importance of having connections with a location through friends, family or past experience. Hence, attraction strategies may be more effective if they are targeted to those who already have experience of country life.

25. Greater issue for those at start of their career.
Summary of key points
Economic factors are also important drivers of migration. Those from metro backgrounds are more likely to move to regional for a specific job rather than amenity.
A challenge for regional professionals is that the smaller job markets of regional cities (compared to metropolitan areas) makes it less likely that a wide selection of alternative jobs are available.
Greater issue for those at start of their career.
Younger age profile of respondents from IBM tended to have higher levels of uncertainty about whether they would stay in Ballarat, and a greater likelihood to report the lack of employment opportunities in Ballarat as a problem.

26. Summary of key points
There appears to be an effect arising from Ballarat’s proximity to Melbourne with many of those surveyed comparing their current situation with that in Melbourne.
POSITIVE: affordability raised as a more important factor for moving in Ballarat than Bendigo.
NEGATIVE: income, service availability or entertainment opportunities are reported as being lower than in Melbourne.

27. Summary of key points
In response to smaller labour markets and the need for specific skills, local business can play an important role in ‘growing their own’ employees.
Developing and maintaining close partnerships with local training providers and universities
Providing internships and scholarships to develop career pathways for local youth.
Communicating these pathways to those still at secondary school may assist in retaining young adults in the local labour force.
Having a regional start to their working life may be important in showing that a regional career is possible – either to develop or to return to at a later date.

28. Contact: Land Use and Population Research, DELWP Email: forwardpolicy
Contact: Land Use and Population Research, DELWP