1. Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

2. Sabato’s Crystal Ball:
The 2016 election
11/23/2018 4:25 AM
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016
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3. How Trump Wins No Third Term Obama/Clinton Fatigue
Rust Belt Strength – Non-College Blue Collars
Increasing White % of Electorate by 4-5%
Fall Recession?
Fall Terrorism?
Supreme Court focus
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

4. The News Media’s Choice: Trump
Source: mediaQuant
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

5. How Hillary Wins Demographic Trends
Anti-Trump Wave – Minorities plus High Turnout
Obama at 50% Job Approval
Women’s Vote
Reunite w/ Sanders
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

6. “Real Republican Ticket”
2016 Presidential Election:
Other November Options?
“Real Republican Ticket”
No French Revolution
Libertarians
Johnson/Weld
Greens
Remember Nader
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

7. Chris Christie Scott Walker John Kasich Bob Corker Jan Brewer
2016 Presidential Election: Only 113 Days Away
A Sampling of Possible R VPs
Chris Christie
Scott Walker
John Kasich
Bob Corker
Jan Brewer
Newt Gingrich
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

8. Tim Kaine Julián Castro Sherrod Brown Elizabeth Warren Joe Biden
2016 Presidential Election: Only 113 Days Away
A Sampling of Possible D VPs
Tim Kaine
Julián Castro
Sherrod Brown
Elizabeth Warren
Joe Biden
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

9. 2016 Trump v. Clinton
347
191
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

10. The Political Map of the US
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

11. Intense Polarization Source: Pew Research Center
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

12. Intense Polarization
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

13. Red States Carried by Obama
2016 Senate Races
Red States Carried by Obama
FL, IA, IL, NH, OH, PA, WI
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

14. 2016 Senate Ratings 47 5 48
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

15. If Democrats win the Senate, Bernie Sanders wants the chair, but Patty Murray is in line
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

16. 2018 Senate Map
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

17. 191 18 226 2016 Congress Dems. Reps. House: 247 R, 188 D Toss-ups
2016 House Ratings
Dems.
Toss-ups
Reps.
191 18
226
OUTLOOK – Dems +10 or so
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

18. Vast majority of members will return
If Rs hold the House, Joe Wilson or Virginia Foxx are possible Kline replacements
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

19. 2016 Gubernatorial Ratings
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

20. State legislatures
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

21. Who funds campaigns
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

22. To read more… www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016

23. Available from the following:
The Bellwether: Now available
Available from the following:
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2016