1. Why are the effects less than predicted?
Key Question: How can the seismic hazard be managed and how useful is such management?
Haicheng China 1975
2041 dead
injured
Population 1 million
Potential deaths and injuries in hindsight predicted to be 150,000
Key Words:
Prediction and Warning
Aseismic building design and regulation
Why are the effects less than predicted?

2. warned exact magnitude time Managing the seismic (earthquake) hazard
Managing the seismic hazard reduces the risk!
There are two types of management:
Prediction and Warning
Aseismic building design and regulation
A successful prediction means that the population could be ………………… of a future earthquake.
To make a prediction scientists would need to
predict the………….. place an earthquake would
strike and at indicate the potential size by forecasting its ……………………….and specifically at what
………………………….. it would strike.
warned
exact
magnitude
time

3. Predicting Earthquakes
Complete the table grid on EQ prediction

4. Prediction seems unlikely at the moment as seismology is a relatively new science and the
earth is more complex than we once thought.
1. ‘Earthquake prediction would be useless anyway.’” Explain why
2. “Aseismic design is the best way to manage the hazard anyway? Explain why

5. Aseismic Design

6. Modelling Buildings: Competition

7. Base Isolation (shock absorbers) Friction pendulum bearings
Modelling Buildings
Base Isolation (shock absorbers)
Friction pendulum bearings
K cross bracing
X cross bracing
Pyramid design
Shear walls and collums
Smart Metres (Tokyo Gas Co)
Computer controlled stability
Retrofitting (full metal jackets)