1. Challenges of the Digital Revolution
Dr Tim Kelly, Int’l Telecom Union (ITU), International Policy Dialogue on Digital Inclusion, Berlin, January 2001
The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU or its membership. Tim Kelly can be contacted by at: 1

2. Challenges of the Digital Revolution
Technology and the Development Gap
Digital divide = Telecoms divide
Changing nature of divide over time
Digital divide and poverty reduction: The Least Developed Countries (LDCs)
LDCs falling further behind
Two “success stories”: Nepal and Uganda
World Summit on the Information Society
A possible focus for reporting results of a future “digital opportunity” action plan

3. Digital divide = Telecoms divide
User distribution, by income group, Jan 2000
280
490
912
6 billion
million
million
million
100%
15 %
High income
90%
80%
58 %
Upper-mid income
70%
Lower-mid income
69 %
60%
82 %
50%
Low income
40%
30%
20%
10% 0%
Internet
users
Mobile users
Telephone lines
Popul- ation
Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database.

4. The digital divide is shrinking, but also shifting
18%
Jan. 1995
Jan. 2000
28%
Share of low and lower-middle income countries in:
Telephone main lines
Mobile subscribers
Estimated Internet Users
Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database. 5%
14%
1.1%
7.6%

5. LDCs falling further behind: Share of worldwide Internet Users
10%
LDCs Share of world population = 10.6% Share of Internet users = 0.1% 8%
China 6%
Other low 4%
& lower-
mid 2%
income 0%
LDCs
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

6. Two LDC “success stories”
Nepal
16-fold increase in IP connectivity in 8 months following liberalisation of VSAT market in 1999
Lowest IP access prices in South Asia
Vibrant competition in ISP market
Uganda
Rapid increase in network growth following introduction of second national operator, MTN Uganda
First country in Africa where mobilephone outnumber fixed-line telephones
Independent regulatory agency
Source: Internet Diffusion Case Studies at:

7. World Summit on the Info Society, 2003 Possible target for reporting on digital divide initiatives?