1. Building an information network for NATO Strategic Direction South
SYNDICATE 7
Horizon Scanning:
Building an information network for NATO Strategic Direction South

2. Initial Brainstorming Questions
Understanding the meaning and scope of “horizon scanning”
What information is needed?
Which actors should be involved?
What are limitations and risks?
How can CIMIC contribute to the network?  

3. Horizon Scanning Objectives
Identify factors / drivers / root causes for (in)stability
Elements of stability versus triggers of instability
Horizon scanning as part of the mission of the Southern Hub (NSD-S Hub)  

4. Factors / Drivers of (In)Stability
Main Categories
PMESII (Political, Military, Economic, Social, Information, Infrastructure)
To Consider
Who is and should be looking at factors?
Who is able to asses a specific situation?
Who is ensuring complete coverage by criteria of stability?
Using ASCOPE (Area, Structure, Culture, Organization, Persons, Events)

5. Factors / Drivers of (In)Stability
Understanding culture
Ethnic tensions
Key-leaders
State resilience
More Detailed List
Leadership perceptions
Civilian perceptions
Gov’t structures/institutions
Historic trends and understanding
Operating patterns
Education
Employment level
Religious influence
Anthropology – understanding the society

6. Strengths CIMIC assets (“boots on the ground” for the Hub)
Mutual trust / confidence
Using current capacities / planning procedures from a PS dimension
Support the decision making process
Existing resilience
Early warning system
Future Mission Network & CivMil Exchange products
Understanding of Comprehensive Approach

7. Weaknesses
Too many actors leads to duplication of efforts (lack of coordination/info sharing)
Negative perception of NATO by Non-Military Actors and Partner Nations
Political barriers to info-sharing among Allies/with Partners
Governmental/organizational interests
Definition of rules of information sharing
Difficulty of predicting outcomes

8. Opportunities
Info-sharing platforms, regular meetings/conferences/workshops
Building relationships
with international/regional organizations (AU, EU, GCC, LAS, UN, 5+5 initiative)
think-tanks (including in the region)
civilian universities, defense institutes in the region
others
Exploit existing tools already used by other actors
Expand Comprehensive Approach
Consider regional context
Optimized allocation of resources (by increasing coordination and avoiding duplication)
Support interaction with non-military actors

9. Threats Need to know versus need to share Corruption / criminality
Information sharing perceived as intelligence collection
Criminal networks
Regional impact

10. Main Line of Effort SMEs (think tanks, academia)
Strategic Key Leaders (regional, local)
NMAs (IOs, GOs, NGOs)
Allies and Partners
Actor Mapping
Selection
Outreach
Engagement
Key Stakeholders
Key Activities
Network Building
Communication platform
Information management system
Mutual trust
Seminars, conferences
Common understanding
Database of actors
Confidence building
MoUs, TAs, contracts
Outputs
Resources
Time Scales
Current activities: Mapping and outreach (cyclical activity)
Future activities: Building communication platform, engagement

11. Enablers and Blockers Enablers Existing networks
Existing information sharing tools …
Blockers
National caveats for information sharing
Political crisis
Conflicting interests/agendas among stakeholders

12. “Thank You for Your Attention”
“Grazie per l’attenzione”