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East Coast Tour Robert McFarlane

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Presentation on theme: "East Coast Tour Robert McFarlane"— Presentation transcript:

1 East Coast Tour Robert McFarlane
Executive Vice-President and Chief Financial Officer Spring 2011

2 TELUS forward looking statements
Today's presentation and answers to questions contain statements about expected future events and financial and operating performance of TELUS that are forward- looking. By their nature, forward-looking statements require the Company to make assumptions and predictions and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. There is significant risk that the forward-looking statements will not prove to be accurate. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements as a number of factors could cause actual future performance and events to differ materially from that expressed in the forward-looking statements. Accordingly our comments are subject to the disclaimer and qualified by the assumptions (including assumptions for 2011 targets), qualifications and risk factors referred to in the Management’s discussion and analysis in the 2010 annual report. Except as required by law, TELUS disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise forward- looking statements, and reserves the right to change, at any time at its sole discretion, its current practice of updating annual targets and guidance. Future performance and predictions subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions

3 Agenda Slide Strategic overview 4 Wireless update 8 Wireline update 17
Financial review 3

4 Strategic overview

5 Strategic Imperatives
TELUS’ strategic intent and strategic imperatives Since 2000, TELUS has maintained a consistent strategic intent and set of strategic imperatives Strategic Imperatives Focus relentlessly on growth markets Build national capabilities across data/IP, voice and mobility Offer integrated solutions Partner, acquire and divest as necessary Go to market as one team Invest in internal capabilities Strategic Intent … to unleash the power of the Internet to deliver the best solutions to Canadians at home, in the workplace and on the move.

6 Revenue Strategic focus on data and wireless 20001 20101
$9.8B $6.0B Wireless Wireline LD 40% Wireline 23% LD Wireless 5% 28% Wireless and Data 75% Wireless and Data 18% Wireless Wireline Data Data Local and 12% Wireline Local 10% other Wireline 49% 20% Data 23% 20001 20101 1 12 months ending June 30, 2000 and December 31, 2010, respectively TELUS revenues up 63% since 2000 Wireless and Data represents 75% of revenue up from 28%

7 Total TELUS customer connections
(millions) 12.3 Voice - Network Access Lines Data - Internet and TV Wireless 6.0 70% Internet, TV and wireless 23% 20001 20101 1 June 30, 2000 and December 31, 2010, respectively Customer connections have more than doubled since 2000

8 Wireless update

9 TELUS wireless coverage in 2000
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10 TELUS wireless coverage today
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11 Dual Cell HSPA+ consistent with TELUS’ evolution to LTE
TELUS increasing wireless data network speeds* Deployed HSPA+ technology in Nov (mfg-rated up to 21 Mbps) - now covers 97% of population in Canada Facilitated launch of Clear & Simple rate plans and iPhone TELUS deploying HSPA+ Dual Cell technology in select cities Manufacturer-rated download speeds to up to 42 Mbps Launched in March 2011 with two mobile Internet keys More devices expected throughout 2011 Represents cost effective investment within TELUS’ 2010 and 2011 capex guidance * See forward looking statement caution Dual Cell HSPA+ consistent with TELUS’ evolution to LTE 11

12 Strengthening wireless distribution
In early 2011, acquired 21 wireless retail dealer stores in BC and AB In 2009, acquired 113 retail stores across Canada Most in premium mall locations 72% are Ontario based 2008 launch expanding mall distribution 117 Koodo kiosks and growing Realising 77% awareness nationally Earning industry recognition J.D. Power and Associates in “Highest in customer satisfaction with postpaid wireless service” Strategy Magazine in “One of the country’s most visually recognizable brands” Providing flexibility to serve various customer needs

13 Building TELUS’ wireless distribution
2010 exclusive points of distribution 265 223 7 245 16 349 30 186 13 18 3 British Columbia Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Ontario Québec Newfoundland New Brunswick Nova Scotia P.E.I. 2000 exclusive points of distribution Distribution strengthened by Koodo launch & Black’s acquisition National exclusive distribution outlets doubled to 1,090

14 Strong wireless subscriber results in 2010
Total net adds Postpaid net adds Wireless subscribers 1.3M 447K 415K 406K 379K prepaid 19% postpaid 81% 5.7M 2009 2010 2009 2010 7.0M total Strong total net adds growth of 10% y/y with higher value postpaid representing 93% of net adds

15 Wireless blended ARPU analysis
Data Voice % of ARPU $58.48 $57.38 12.60 16.01 22% 27% This slide shows the breakdown of TELUS’ total ARPU between voice and data for the third quarter. Encouragingly, blended ARPU continues to show an improving trend sequentially and is now down 1.2% year-over-year in the third quarter compared to a decline of 1.9, 4.4, and 7.7% in the three previous quarters. In fact, ARPU increased 2.2% sequentially and is the second straight quarter of sequential growth. In addition, voice ARPU erosion of 6.7%, year-over-year, continues to improve and reflects the best quarter in two years. The lower rate of decline in voice ARPU was partially offset by an increase in data ARPU of 21% to $14.53, compared to 19% last quarter, continuing to help improve the trend in blended ARPU. Data ARPU now represents 25% of ARPU, up 5 percentage points from last year, and represents a significant ongoing opportunity for continued growth as smartphone penetration increases and demand for data services increases. Voice ARPU erosion: Q3/10 down 6.7% vs. Q3/08: down 6.3% Data ARPU driven by: BlackBerry ($34M), text messaging ($21M), mobile computing ($14M) and roaming ($7M) Total Voice and Other ARPU down $3.18. Total Data ARPU up $2.48 (data roaming up $0.29). 78% 44.78 42.47 73% Q4-09 Q4-10 Q4-09 Q4-10 Strong data growth driving 1.9% y/y increase in ARPU, the first y/y increase in 3.5 years

16 Wireless industry developments
Most new entrants, (except Shaw and EastLink), now in market and using basic voice and messaging discount pricing to drive subscriber growth Most new entrant pricing appears consistent with positioning for consolidation rather than long term value maximization Voice trending to flat rate offerings for flanker brands and new entrants Smartphone loading and consequent data use primarily by incumbents has hit inflection point Data utilization and consequent capacity and direct costs make unlimited data offerings uneconomic and increase need for additional spectrum Industry Canada public process underway to set rules for 700 MHz spectrum auction expected in 2012 Data driving growth in competitive wireless market

17 Wireline update

18 Investing in wireline broadband
18 Expanded fibre-to-the-node (FTTN) coverage to 2.1 Million households in B.C., Alberta, and Eastern Quebec Upgrade to VDSL2 technology to be completed in 2011 Provides data download speeds of up to 30 Mbps Enables expanded IPTV coverage and features Continuing fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) to new developments and fibre-to-the-building (FTTB) to MDU’s Several secondary cities to be built each year Ramp-up in broadband coverage leveling competitive playing field with cable-TV companies 18

19 Optik TV 19 Optik TV on the Microsoft Mediaroom platform launched February 2010 across various B.C. and Alberta communities PVR Anywhere – record and watch on any connected TV Multiple TV’s in a home with multiple HD streams Superior picture quality Enhanced channel guide with picture in picture display Instantaneous channel changing Faster Internet speeds Introducing innovative new features that differentiates against cable-TV 19

20 Generating new TELUS TV subscribers
TELUS TV net additions* TELUS TV subscribers* 314K This slide shows our continued success with TELUS TV in the third quarter. Total TV net adds were a record 38,000, increasing by 73% year-over-year, nearly doubling the total subscriber base to 266,000 over the past year. The success of Optik TV, powered by Microsoft Mediaroom, is helping fuel demand. The Mediaroom platform is a differentiated, world leading platform and customer reaction has been strong and very positive. Our overall momentum in TV reflects the improved product capability and features of our Optik service, such as PVR anywhere and our superior selection of HD channels, which is providing positive competitive differentiation; our successful Optik brand launch and marketing campaign, which began in June; as well as from continued enhanced broadband coverage as we continue to expand our ADSL2+ and VDSL footprints. There are now 2 million homes within TELUS’ service area eligible for Optik TV, and we continue to be very pleased with the momentum in our loading and retention results. Background: Q3/10 TELUS TV net adds breakdown: IPTV: 30K; Sat TV: 8K HD footprint background: Edmonton ~92% vs 87% Q3’09 Calgary ~90% vs 81% Q3’09 Vancouver & LML ~82% vs 50% Q3’09 Top 48 communities in AB/BC: ~85% or 2.0 million homes passed 170K 144K 92K 2009 2010 2009 2010 * Includes both TELUS IP TV and TELUS Satellite TV subscribers Accelerated TV loading reflected by 48K Q4 net adds and 85% y/y increase in total TV subscribers

21 Improved Q4 2010 wireline operating stats
TELUS TV and High-speed Internet additions (HSIA) Network access line (NAL) losses 66K 44K Q4/09 Q4/10 (9)K net loss to 11K net gain in wireline customers This slide highlights our improved wireline operating indicators this quarter. Total new customers from our broadband services totalled 53,000 this quarter and included 38,000 new TV customers, as previously discussed, combined with new high-speed Internet customers of 15,000. High-Speed net additions improved to 15,000, an increase of 67% year-over-year and a definite improvement from recent quarters. The improved result partially reflects the launch of Optik High-Speed Internet Service, which features dynamic and higher Internet speeds that take full advantage of the increased bandwidth we have deployed to neighbourhoods in recent years through shortening loop lengths and deploying fibre. Total NAL losses this quarter were 51,000, represented by the purple bar on the slide, which includes business NAL losses of 12,000 and residential NAL losses of 39,000. On an absolute basis, both business and residential line losses improved year-over-year reflecting a slight improvement in economic conditions on the business side, while our enhanced bundling capabilities, resulting from our expanded TV offering, is starting to provide retention benefits for our residential customers. All together, we are encouraged that growth in TV and High-Speed Internet loading fully offset the declines in business and residential NAL losses. -53K -55K Growth in TV and HSIA greater than NAL declines

22 Building on large enterprise deals
Investing in and focusing on key industry verticals Public sector Financial services Energy Healthcare Wholesale National Defence Implementation track record led to many contract wins

23 Demonstrating our leadership position in healthcare
TELUS Health Solutions most recognized brand in Canadian healthcare market Electronic Health Records for more than 5 million Canadians 10 million Canadians on country’s largest private electronic claims network 3,000+ pharmacies using our pharmacy management software 4,000+ providers on our electronic claims transmissions network Exclusive partner to host and operate Microsoft HealthVault in Canada Trials now underway Leading the transformation of healthcare in Canada

24 TELUS’ vertical integration strategy
TELUS’ strategy is to aggregate, integrate and make accessible content and applications for customers’ enjoyment Not necessary to own content to make it accessible to customers on economically attractive basis Not clear to TELUS that synergies of ownership for carriers outweigh negative synergies of limiting audience through exclusives and impact on other supplier relationships Caution warranted based on past transactions, execution risk related to different expertise requirement, and legacy nature of content assets in play Consistent with our strategy to “unleash the power of the Internet to Canadians at home, in workplace and on the move”

25 Industry vertical integration update
TELUS commends CRTC’s Shaw/Canwest and Videotron/TVA decisions to support the pre-existing principle of programming content non- exclusivity on reasonable commercial terms Regulatory measures taken in U.S. for Comcast acquisition of NBC Universal are also good precedent Public policy hearing called for June 2011 on effects of consolidation and vertical integration in Canadian broadcasting industry TELUS believes CRTC needs to implement measures to effectively address and deter any anti-competitive behaviour from content ownership CRTC’s recent decisions reinforce pre-existing principle that consumers need protection from undue preference by carriers who own content

26 Financial review

27 2010 wireless financial results
($M) 2009 2010 change Revenue (external) 4,707 5,014 6.5% EBITDA 1,933 2,031 5.1% EBITDA margins* (total revenue) 40.8% 40.2% (0.6) pts Capex 770 463 (40)% EBITDA less capex 1,163 1,568 35% * Margins on network revenue in 2010 and 2009 were unchanged at 44.0% Wireless cash flow up significantly due to lower capex and EBITDA increase despite record subscriber loads

28 Wireless data revenue $326M $239M $203M Q4-08 Q4-09 Q4-10 iPhone 4 BlackBerry Torch Strong data growth of 36% in Q4-10 driven by continued smartphone adoption especially BlackBerry and iPhone

29 Wireless marketing and retention
2009 2010 change Gross adds (000s) 1,599 1,710 6.9% Churn 1.58% 1.57% (0.01) pts COA per gross add $337 $350 3.9% COA expense $539M $598M 11% Retention expense $479M $535M 12% Record gross additions and stable churn reflect availability of new HSPA handsets and continued marketing success

30 2010 wireline financial results
($M) 2009 2010 Change Revenue (external) 4,899 4,765 (2.7)% Operational expenses 3,475 3,308 (4.8)% Restructuring costs 178 70 (61)% EBITDA 1,558 1,612 3.5% EBITDA margins (total revenue) 31.0% 32.8% 1.8 pts Capex 1,333 1,258 (6)% EBITDA less capex 225 354 57% Revenue decline slows and is offset by expense control and lower restructuring costs

31 2010 consolidated financial results
($M excl. EPS) 2009 2010 change Revenue (external) 9,606 9,779 1.8% Operating expenses 6,277 6,324 0.7% Restructuring costs 190 74 (61)% EBITDA 3,491 3,643 4.4% EPS (basic) 3.14 3.23 2.9% Capex 2,103 1,721 (18)% Free cash flow 485 947 95% Strong cash flow expansion driven by improved profitability and capex decline

32 2011 targets reflect continued execution excellence
2011 annual targets* Consolidated 2011 target y/y growth Revenue (external) $9.925 to B 1 to 4% EBITDA $3.675 to 3.875B 1 to 6% EPS – basic $3.50 to 3.90 7 to 19% Capex Approx. $1.7B No change * See forward looking statement caution. 2011 targets reflect continued execution excellence

33 TELUS raises dividend twice in 2010
Based on management confidence in mid-term outlook Quarterly dividend raised 5.3% to $0.50 per share for July and October 2010 Quarterly dividend raised 5% to $0.525 per share for January and April 2011 January and April 2011 dividends 10.5% higher y/y Based on management’s confidence in the prospect for continued earnings growth and strong cash flow in 2011 and beyond, and aligned with our dividend growth model, TELUS’ board of directors has approved a 5% quarterly dividend payout increase to 52 and a half cents per share starting with the January 4th, 2011 dividend payment. This is the second five per cent increase this year and represents an 11% increase over the dividend paid in January 2010. In addition, TELUS has announced that it is changing the dividend reinvestment program to open market purchases at full price rather than issuing shares from treasury at a 3% discount from the average market price. These changes will come into effect on March 1, 2011 and apply to reinvestment of dividends declared after January 4, Shares from the reinvestment of the January 4, 2011 dividend will continue to be issued from treasury at a three per cent discount from the average market price. Background $2.10 dividend and 2010 EPS guidance of $3.10 to $3.30 implies 64% to 68% payout ratio. $2.10 dividend implies 2011E EPS of $3.50 using mid point of payout ratio (i.e. 60%) 2011E range of $3.23 to $3.81 675 642 584 602 Dividends ($M) 521 * See forward looking statement 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E* Dividend increases reflect prospect for continued earnings growth and strong free cash flow in 2011*

34 TELUS capital expenditure history ($B)
Wireline Wireless Target 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1.75 2.25 1.69 1.25 1.32 1.62 1.77 1.86 2.1 2010 1.72 Approx 1.7 2011E* * See forward looking statement Over $19 billion invested into core businesses in Canada

35 FCF after spectrum purchases Wireless spectrum purchased
TELUS generating strong free cash flow ($M) 35 35 FCF after spectrum purchases 1,385 to 1,585 1,443 2003 776 2004 1,167 2006 2007 1,388 2002 2009 485 2008 361 1,243 (910) 2001 (1,266) 2005 1,345 1,336 (249) 2000 144 2010 947 Wireless spectrum purchased 2011 Outlook 2011E* impacted by increased capex, pension and restructuring costs, and start of significant cash taxes reflected reduced capex and restructuring costs, partially offset by higher cash taxes * See forward looking statement 35

36 Investor considerations
Investing strategically for enhanced competitiveness and growth HSPA+ wireless network and expanded wireline broadband reach Improved organizational cost structure through efficiency initiatives to address J-curve dilution and economic impacts Benefits in 2011* from strategic investments Enhanced competitive position in wireless and wireline Leveraging HSPA+ wireless network to accelerate data & roaming growth Enhanced broadband network supporting Optik TV and Internet services Lower cost structure with 2-yr est. recurring EBITDA savings of $184M 2011 pre-dividend free cash flow of ~$ billion (after cash pension contributions) due to EBITDA growth, lower interest costs and cash taxes * See forward looking statement caution Strategic investments resulting in improved 2010 performance as planned, dividend increases, and solid 2011 outlook 36

37 Investor relations telus.com/investors


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