1. Sarvar Gurbanov, Ph.D. Qafqaz University
Declining manufacturing employment as a global social change: Implications for Azerbaijan
Dr. Sarvar Gurbanov
Sarvar Gurbanov, Ph.D.
Qafqaz University

2. Currency Wars
  The BoJ said it would double Japan’s monetary base from Y135tn ($1.43tn) to Y270tn by December 2014, mainly by buying more long- term government bonds. That will raise the average remaining maturity of its holdings from about three years to seven years…
April 4, 2013, Financial Times
Dr. Sarvar Gurbanov

3. Global Manufacturing
“Global manufacturing production is shifting gradually from developed countries to developing countries, as firms move to benefit from cheaper labor, quality infrastructure, lower social costs and large markets in countries like China and India.
World manufacturing value added (MVA) peaked at $7,390 billion in 2010 (18,2 percent of global GDP). The manufacturing sector in developing countries has been buoyant, with a remarkable 5.6 percent annual growth rate in MVA over 1990 – 2010, slightly higher than the 4.8 percent GDP growth rate.
Also, global manufacturing employment has been shifting from developed to developing countries. This trend is expected to intensify as more manufacturing relocates to developing countries” (UNIDO, 2011)
Dr. Sarvar Gurbanov

4. Manufacturing exports
Dr. Sarvar Gurbanov
Manufacturing exports

5. Manufacturing technology
Dr. Sarvar Gurbanov
Manufacturing technology

6. Declining manufacturing employment
In Japan, between 1991 – 2004, 3 million jobs
In USA, late 1990s till today, 5,5 million jobs
In Nigeria, 1983 – 2010, 5,2 million jobs
In Cameroon, fiscal policy, improve productivity in manufacturing, reducing poverty rate
(In Nigeria, Only 5 percent of manufacturers think that foreign competitors hinder their success, 72 percent of population is poor by 2011).
Declining manufacturing employment
Dr. Sarvar Gurbanov

7. Importance of Manufacturing
provides above-average-paying jobs,
is the source of good jobs for non-college- educated workers
for generations, manufacturing has built up America`s middle class,
provides jobs which are more likely to be full-time jobs, and have good benefits for workers
Multiplier effect on job creation
Dr. Sarvar Gurbanov

8. Chinese Success
For 25 years, China gradually built its manufacturing base and completed its global integration.
“In 1986, four Chinese scientists recommended to the government that IT be designated a strategic sector. The request was approved and in 1988 China`s National Development and Reform Commission designated high tech as a “pillar” industry worthy of strategic industrial policy”
Dr. Sarvar Gurbanov

9. Implications for Azerbaijan
A success on reducing poverty, next step to built up a strong middle class,
National Manufacturing Strategy
Determining manufacturing as the number one priority for Azerbaijan economy will generate three fruitful outcomes at the same time:
building a strong middle class,
fostering development in non-oil sectors
and diversifying exports away from the oil sector.
Dr. Sarvar Gurbanov

10. Thanks for your attention…
Dr. Sarvar Gurbanov
Dr. Sarvar Gurbanov