1. SPA
Analysis and Synthesis of Loss Estimation & Risk Assessment (LERA) Methodologies for Prediction and Prevention of Catastrophes Project reference number: SfP Environmental Security Panel May 13th, 2005 Conference Room Brosio NATO Headquarters Bruxelles P

2. Project / Purpose Review LERA-relevant regulatory frameworks
National (eg, Russian Federal Law on Technological Safety, Russian Federal Law on Technological Regulation, US DMA 2000)
International (eg, Seveso Directive, Saveso-II Directive)
Review / advance LERA methods
Unified comprehensive LERA-methodology
Natural-manmade catastrophes
Terrorist attacks
LERA Demonstration Project in Russia
Toward an International LERA framework
Integration of national approaches
Consistent / common databases
Goal
economies (R&D, construction)
improved safety standards P

3. Related R&D in Russia
Federal State Program ‘Safety of Population and Industrial Facilities Taking into Account Risks of Natural and Manmade Catastrophes’ ( )
Federal Special-Purpose Program ‘Reduction of Risks and Mitigation of Consequences of Natural and Manmade Emergencies in the Russian Federation’ ( ) P

4. Institutional Involvement
IMS / RAS
LERA ~ manmade / natural catastrophes
Methods for estimation of catastrophic losses (short-, middle-, and long-term future)
IIES
LERA ~ terrorist impacts
Systems for protecting high potential loss facilities VT
Disaster Reduction
Building Security Enhancement (FEMA)
National Capital Region Infrastructure
Microzonation (Turkey)
Electric Power reliability
SPA
Risk analysis
Natural hazards
Terrorism
Insurance Industry
CDDMRI / EMERCOM
LERA ~ natural / manmade disasters
GIS technologies S

5. LERA Current status
LERA S

6. LERA technology: Current status
LERA theory ~ developed
Variety models emerging (HAZUS, LessLoss, CATS, EXTREMUM, RADIUS)
National / inward focused
Limited, poor communication
Focus on Natural Hazards, neglect security
No cross-pollination / inefficient
Needs:
Open LERA methods / models
Accessible databases
Wider acceptance S

7. Partner Contributions
SPA - Experience in LERA / Application ~ regional planning; infrastructure mitigation programs; finance and insurance
VT - Assessing critical infrastructures / evaluating efficiencies of safety related activities
IIES - Assessing terrorist risk / systems for protection of high potential loss facilities from catastrophes and terrorist attacks
IMS / RAS – LERA for industrial accidents / estimation of catastrophic losses varying in time
CDDRMI – LERA for natural hazards / GIS S

8. Novelty of the project
Broad-based approach to loss estimation deterministic, stochastic, fuzzy sets…
International / Global
Comprehensive – not just a single type of hazard (earthquake, flood, fire, terrorism, etc.)
Integrated - Multihazards / Security
Estimation of catastrophic losses varying in time S

9. Products Workshop on current LERA-methodologies
Collection and comparative assessment of LERA-methodologies developed in NATO countries and Russia
Synthesis of a comprehensive methodology
Development of basic principles of the methodology for catastrophic estimation of risks and losses varying in time
Demonstration project (Min. of Emergency Situations) S

10. Criteria for Success 1. Analysis existing LERA-methodologies 10%
2. Develop LERA specific hazards
15 %
3. Comprehensive LERA natural hazards / Security
35%
4. Method to estimate Cat losses ( short-, middle- and long-term)
20%
5. Dissemination to the international community 5%
6. Implementation in the Ministry of Emergency Situations
15% S

11. End-user · Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations:
Natural / manmade catastrophes;
prediction and prevention;
consequence mitigation;
rescue and response
Contribution to the Project
Staff, resources, databases, experience
Demonstration project / application:
mitigating the consequences of scenario catastrophe
anticipating emergency response
recovery and reconstruction P

12. Project strengths Comprehensive systems-based approach
Contributes towards modern strategies of catastrophic safety management
Permits catastrophic loss estimation varying in time
Open issues:
Limited data
Uncertainty
Lack of internationally accepted regulations and standards on risk management P

13. Contribution to stability, security, peace
Contributes to modern strategies for ensuring safety
Pooling efforts of specialists from NATO countries and Russia in disaster and terrorist risk management
Key step towards a unified standardized methodology P

14. Thank You / Merci / Danke Schön / Spasibo
Questions? P