1. THE CYPRUS CHALLENGE IN THE TURKEY-EU RELATIONS

2. Since 2006 Turkey’s European Union (EU) accession negotiations have been moving comatosely –i.e., in snail-pace.
Many hope that a breakthrough in the never-ending Cyprus peace talks would play a catalyzing role for Turkey’s EU accession.
However, given the Arab uprisings, especially the events in Syria that knock on the neighboring Turkey’s door every day and the EU’s withdrawal position to its own Euro-zone crisis leave no room to be optimistic on anybody taking an initiative to resolve the Cyprus conflict any time soon.
Meanwhile, Turkey’s accession negotiations with the EU continue to be severely curtailed due to the irresolution of the Cyprus conflict.

3. A quick chronology of the Cyprus Issue 1
1571: Ottoman Turks invaded the island
1878: Ottoman Turks rented the island to the British in return for assistance in its war against Russia.
1914 (ww ı): UK annexed the island when the Ottoman Turks entered war in alliance with Germany (against the British)
1925: Cyprus became a British crown colony.
1960: Decolonized, bi-communal Republic of Cyprus
1963: Constitutional crises and ethnic violence

4. A quick chronology of the Cyprus Issue 2
1964: UNFICYP in Cyprus by a UNSC Resolution
1968: Intercommunal negotiations started
15 July 1974: Greek coup’s attempt for ENOSIS (union)
20 July 1974: Turkish military operation, geographical division of the present time
1983: Turkish Cypriot’s declaration of the “TRNC”
2004: First comprehensive UN peace plan («Annan Plan») put to referenda – 65% TC vs 24% GC – and failed.
2008: Last round of peace negotiations started
For recent background see a recent newspaper article:

5. Basis of Inter-Communal Negotiations
Since High Level Agreements:
Establishment of a FEDERAL state Cyprus
Bi-zonal with regard to territorial aspects
Bi-communal with regard to the constitutional aspects
Essentially one central/federal government where the two communities share the power anc competences and co-decide on issues such as foreign affairs, defence, citizenship etc.
Two constituent (federated) states having the residual/remaining powers and competences such as education, cultural and religious affairs etc.

6. The two leaders (Talat and Christofias) had met 71 times (since September 2008) and later the new TC leader (Eroğlu) and the GC leader (Christofias) met more than 30 times.
Areas of Significant Progress
Governance and Power Sharing
Economic Matters
European Union Matters
Areas with Little Progress
Property
Territory
Security and Guarantees

7. What does the people say???

8. Overall settlement – Greek Cypriots
Regarding the overall framework of a Comprehensive Settlement, and considering each of the alternative settlement models presented below, how acceptable or unacceptable, in principle, do you consider each of these general models? (Greek Cypriots)
Overall settlement – Greek Cypriots
Greek Cypriots favor a unitary state over other alternatives. Federation is a distant second, but still acceptable to a majority of the population. A continuation of the status quo is seen as unacceptable by the majority of the population.

9. Overall settlement – Turkish Cypriots
Regarding the overall framework of a Comprehensive Settlement, and considering each of the alternative settlement models presented below, how acceptable or unacceptable, in principle, do you consider each of these general models? (Turkish Cypriots)
Overall settlement – Turkish Cypriots
Turkish Cypriots favor two states, but are prepared to accept federation as a compromise. Continuation of the status quo is also a tolerable option to Turkish Cypriots.

10. Federation – the only alternative negotiated settlement...
Solution Models:
Federation – the only alternative negotiated settlement...
Unitary state (where TCs will be a minority) is the GCs’ first choice/preference,
Two state solution is the TCs first choice/preference,
(A bi-zonal, bi-communal) «Federation» is the SECOND choice/preference for both GCs and TCs.
Federation – the only alternative solution model among the others that has the chance to pass from a simultaneous, separate referenda (similar to the one in 2004)

11. According to the author (Sözen 2014)
Reaching a comprehensive settlement is the starting point; and it is a sine qua non condition of establishing real peace in Cyprus.
However, official peace negotiations should be supported by concrete confidence building measures (CBM) between the two communities
The goal here should be to expose common people to the experience of real inter-communal cooperation which is a natural requirement of any federal arrangement.
A package deal including several CBMs can work wonders. The following is a package of proposed CBMs.
These measures could unlock many issues in the Cyprus conflict that would lead to a comprehensive federal solution in Cyprus.

12. Opening of the fenced area of Varosha under the UN administration.
 The CBM package suggested by Sözen
Opening of the fenced area of Varosha under the UN administration.
Opening of the Ercan Airport in North Cyprus under the UN administration and the effective operation of the Turkish Cypriot administration
Opening of the port of Famagusta under the nominal EU or UN administration and the effective operation of the Turkish Cypriot administration for direct trade with the EU countries
Turkey opening its ports to the vessels carrying the Republic of Cyprus (RoC)’ flag, while RoC lifting its veto on opening and closing of EU accession chapters with Turkey:
Turkey withdrawing a symbolic number of its troops ( soldiers) from Cyprus as a goodwill gesture
Starting of unofficial talks between Greek Cypriot, Turkish Cypriot, Turkish and Greek representatives regarding the hydrocarbons in the eastern Mediterranean

13. http://vimeo. com/31117077. (Part 1) http://www. youtube. com/watch
* * (Part 1) * (Part 2) * (Part 3) * (Part 4)
 Social Media Links for further background from the author: