1. Michael Bocian Principal, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
Post-Election Analysis of NEA’s 2008 Campaign Communications Among Members
Michael Bocian
Principal, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
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2. Four Key Strategic Decisions That Guided Our Work
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3. Key Strategic Decision #1
Define McCain in May while Obama and Clinton were slugging it out
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Out of touch with economic challenges
4 more years of George Bush
Out of touch with public schools
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4. Key Strategic Decision #2
Introduce Obama in the summer with heavy bio elements
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Tackle questions of race, religion and patriotism
Use parental involvement to establish values
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5. Key Strategic Decision #3
Center our message on the economy and the middle class
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McCain tax on employer sponsored health care
Middle class tax cuts vs. tax breaks for millionaires
Incentives to create jobs in America
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6. Key Strategic Decision #4
Be more targeted in choosing which states to play in and which members/households to communicate with
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7. The Record
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8. Post Communication Movement Among MEMBERS
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Florida
North Carolina
+34
+33
+26
+22
+24
+19
+12
PA 53/ /37 OH 46/46 – 57/38
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

9. Post Communication Movement Among MEMBERS
Nevada
Michigan
Iowa
New Mexico
Virginia
+46
+40
+38
+30
+32
+32
+31
+24
+30
+25
Data layed out top to bottom
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

10. Post Communication Movement Among MEMBERS
New Hampshire
Colorado
Missouri
Minnesota
Oregon
+52
+52
+55
+47
+50
+51
+42
+41
+44
+41
Data layed out top to bottom
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

11. Post Communication Movement Among HOUSEHOLDS
Ohio
Nevada
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
+19
+16 +7 +9
+10
+12 -1
-11
Data layed out top to bottom
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

12. Post Communication Movement Among HOUSEHOLDS
Michigan
Missouri
Virginia
Florida
+32
+18
+19
+17
+16
+14 +9
+13
Data layed out top to bottom
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

13. Post Communication Movement Among HOUSEHOLDS
Colorado
Iowa
Minnesota
New Hampshire
+24
+22
+25
+17
+26
+23
+29
+24
Data layed out top to bottom
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

14. Obama Vote Compared to Kerry’s in 2004 MEMBERS
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Nevada
+32
+30
+19
+26
+19
+24
+16 +1
Data layed out top to bottom
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

15. Obama Vote Compared to Kerry’s in 2004 MEMBERS
Florida
Iowa
New Hampshire
Minnesota
+46
+52
+48
+49
+34
+42
+45
+29
Data layed out top to bottom
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

16. Senate Races MEMBERS New Hampshire Senate Oregon Senate Minnesota
New Mexico
Senate
Colorado
Senate
+59
+46
+48
+43
+50
+34
+31
+32
+18
+14
Data layed out top to bottom
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

17. Senate Races HOUSEHOLDS
Minnesota
Senate
Colorado
Senate
New Hampshire
Senate
+28
+33
+26 +9 -4
+25
Data layed out top to bottom
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

18. Governors Races/North Carolina MEMBERS
Missouri
Gubernatorial
North Carolina
Gubernatorial
North Carolina
Senate
+60
+56
+42
+43
+42 +3
Data layed out top to bottom
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

19. Governors Races/North Carolina HOUSEHOLDS
Missouri
Gubernatorial
North Carolina
Gubernatorial
North Carolina
Senate
+38
+26
+19
+18 -1 +8
Data layed out top to bottom
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

20. Huge Improvement on Oregon Ballot Measures
Now I would like to ask you about the Oregon ballot Initiatives. Did you vote yes, in favor of the measure, or no to oppose it? +1
Measure 56: Provides that May and November property tax elections are decided by a majority of voters voting
+44
Measure 58: Prohibits teaching public school student in language other than English for more than two years.
-47
-73
Measure 60: Teacher Classroom Performance, Not Seniority, Determines Pay Raises; Most Qualified Teachers Retained, Regardless of Seniority
-69
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-91 -6
Measure 64: Penalizes Person, Entity For Using Funds Collected With Public Resource For Political Purpose
-58
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21. Post Colorado Ballot Measures - Members
Let me ask about Amendment 54, also known as Campaign Contributions from Certain Government Contractors. Did you vote YES to enact this initiative or NO to reject this initiative, or did you not vote on this amendment?
Let me ask about Amendment 49, also known as Colorado Limitation on Public Payroll Deductions. Did you vote YES to enact this amendment or NO to reject this amendment, or did you not vote on this amendment?
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22. The Decision Process – Targeted Members/Households
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23. How Persuadable were Our Targets?
Percentage among Barack Obama supporters who said they considered voting for John McCain
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*Note: Data from Democracy Corps National Survey

24. How Persuadable were Our Targets?
Percentage among John McCain supporters who said they considered voting for Barack Obama
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
*Note: Data from Democracy Corps National Survey

25. Obama Voters Cast an Affirmative Vote
In the election for President did you mainly vote FOR Barack Obama or AGAINST John McCain?
In the election for President did you mainly vote FOR John McCain or AGAINST Barack Obama?
Obama Voters
McCain Voters
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26. The Issue and Messages – Targeted Members/Households
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27. Economic Concerns Dominate
Now, I am going to read you a list of concerns that people have. Please tell me which ONE of these you think the President and Congress should be paying the most attention to. 59 27 25 20 17
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28. Change, Economy-Middle Class Drove Obama’s Support
Now thinking about everything you've heard during the campaign, what was the most persuasive reason to vote FOR Barack Obama?
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Figures are summaries from responses to open-ended questions.
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

29. Economic & Education Specifics Stood Out for Obama
Regardless of who you voted for, thinking about everything you heard during the campaign, which ONE of the following was the most persuasive reason to vote for Barack Obama? 27 26 20 19
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30. Desire for Change Drove McCain Concerns
And what was the biggest concern you had about John McCain?
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Figures are summaries from responses to open-ended questions.
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

31. Economic Specifics Stood Out About McCain
Regardless of who you voted for, thinking about everything you heard during the campaign, which ONE of the following was the most persuasive reason to vote against John McCain? 27 25 20 18 18
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32. Experience Powered McCain’s Support
Now thinking about everything you've heard during the campaign, what was the most persuasive reason to vote FOR John McCain?
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Figures are summaries from responses to open-ended questions.
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

33. Experience Main Question About Obama
And what was the biggest concern you had about Barack Obama?
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Figures are summaries from responses to open-ended questions.
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

34. Means of Communication – Targeted Members/Households
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35. Penetration of NEA Communications
Do you remember receiving any mail/phone calls/ s/visits from representatives of the state affiliate or the National Education Association about the election for President or other offices?
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36. Nearly Half of Targeted Homes Recalled More Than 5 Mail Pieces
How much mail would you say you received from the state NEA or National Education Association? Did you receive just a few pieces, about four or five pieces, six to ten pieces, or ten or more pieces of mail from the state NEA or National Education Association?
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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

37. Colorado Face-to-Face Program Noteworthy
Do you remember any representatives of the state NEA or the National Education Association speaking at meetings or visiting your work place to discuss the election for President or other offices?
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*Note: Values denote those that responded “YES”

38. Volunteer Activities Mostly for Candidates, Not Union
Most people don't have the time to volunteer in elections. How about you? Did you participate as a volunteer in this year's elections for an organization or an individual candidate?
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*Note: Values denote those that responded “YES”

39. Lessons Learned – What We Did Well
Better targeting
Pulled out of states that were becoming non-competitive
Delivered more communications to the persuadable members with modeling
Turnout optimization modeling
Important sequencing – defined McCain at the right time, introduced Obama at the right time, offered a contrast at the right time
Delivered a message that fit into the candidate’s narrative
Offered a real narrative with compelling visuals and creative ideas, rather than a list of issue positions
Innovative new ideas (e.g., creative websites)
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40. Lessons Learned – What We Can Do Better
More fully develop our face-to-face program and learn from best practices
Better understand how to communicate with households
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41. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
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