1. Futures Studies: An Overview of Basic Concepts
11/23/2018
Futures Studies: An Overview of Basic Concepts
Dr. Wendy L. Schultz
Infinite Futures
Fulbright Lecturer,
Finland Futures Research Centre
This Powerpoint presentation – both slides and notes – was initially created as an overview to futures research and futures research tools for the TUTU 1 class and the Post-graduate Studies Theme Seminar on that topic at Turun Kauppakorkeakoulu, on 28 February 2002, in Turku, Finland. Over the next two months, in the course of explaining both data-gathering and data-processing (extrapolation, impact assessment, pattern identification, systemic analysis, scenario building, and visioning) within futures studies, the presentation experienced additions, permutations, and transformations. The result is this collection of slides with attendant notes, which I hope offers a useful introductory-level overview to the philosophy, conceptual framework, tools, and weaknesses of what I call – depending on the audience – either applied futures research, or integrated foresight.
Please me your comments, additions, and constructive criticisms.
22 March 2002
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

2. copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
11/23/2018
What do we...
See: the past, the present, trends.
Wonder: what might happen?
Fear: past disasters --> future crises.
Desire: past successes --> future goals.
Believe: who/what makes change?
DO: who/what could help us create change?
22 March 2002
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures 2

3. Feelings and experiences: sources of ideas about the future
History
(experiences)
Feelings
about the future
Image of the Possible Future
outcomes were unexpected >>>
uncertain, curious, or challenged, producing…>
WILDLY DIFFERENT:
TRANSFORMATIONAL
outcomes were disasters or failures >>>
scared (fear), worry, anxiety, producing…>
NEGATIVE:
NIGHTMARE
outcomes were wonderful! successes! >>>
hope, excitement, anticipation, producing…>
POSITIVE: EVERYTHING GETS BETTER
outcomes followed an expected pattern >>>
security, stability, producing…>
CONTINUITY:
STAYS THE SAME
22 March 2002
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

4. Guidelines for thinking about the future...
11/23/2018
Guidelines for thinking about the future...
Make NO PREDICTIONS;
Remember, there are NO FUTURE FACTS;
TOMORROW WILL BE NOTHING LIKE TODAY;
Question assumptions when you hear, “[..X..]” could *never* happen…”
22 March 2002
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures 3

5. copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Futures Studies is…
a transdisciplinary, systems-science-based approach to..
analyzing patterns of change in the past;
identifying trends of change in the present; and
extrapolating alternative scenarios of possible change in the future,
in order to help people create the futures they most desire.
22 March 2002
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

6. Inter, trans, meta disciplinary:
futures studies
history
philosophy,
political science
international
relations
systems
science
literature
psychology
economics
…etc.
sociology
22 March 2002
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

7. Alternative possible futures...
11/23/2018
Alternative possible futures...
Reality is a non-linear -- i.e., chaotic -- system, and thus impossible to predict;
Possible futures emerge from the turbulent interplay of current trends and emerging issues of change.
This, again, articulates an exaggerated perspective to make the point that the interrelationship between the linear and non-linear systems which compose reality generates uncertainty.
trends
innovations
revolutions, etc.
possibility one
possibility two
possibility three
…etc.
22 March 2002
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

8. …alternative possible futures
11/23/2018
…alternative possible futures
A basic assumption of futures studies: not one future, but many possible futures;
of those possible futures, some are more probable than others -- evaluate changing probabilities by monitoring trend growth;
of those possible futures, some are more preferable than others -- evaluate preferability by dialogue within community.
Assessing the probability of any given image of the future actually occurring must of necessity be an ongoing process: as trends and emerging issues of change grow, transform, plateau, or collapse over time, the probability of a possible outcome, or possible future, may vary. Hence the need for ongoing identification and monitoring of indicators of change.
Secondly, evaluating any given image of the future as aligning more or less closely with community values is important in assessing which futures offer conditions that best fit community goals in achieving a vision – a preferred future – but that evaluation of a possible set of conditions as preferable is NOT THE SAME ACTIVITY as articulating a vision of a preferred future.
22 March 2002
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

9. Alternative futures: possible, probable, and preferable
11/23/2018
Alternative futures: possible, probable, and preferable
possible futures
probable futures
preferable
futures
objective of futures studies:
act to enhance the probability of our preferable futures.
Should be self-explanatory (if there is anything I can add to the notes page to make it clearer, please do not hesitate to me).
22 March 2002
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

10. copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Futures Studies is…..
NOT prediction, but
EXPLORATION
and
PROVOCATION.
22 March 2002
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

11. Evaluating forecasts:
Any useful statement about the future should seem to be ridiculous. -- Dator’s Axiom
22 March 2002
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures