1. Population

2. Population Geography Distribution of World Population
Population Statistics
Population Pyramids
Demographic Transition Theory
Population Control
Overpopulation (Malthus and Neo-Malthusians)

4. Arithmetic Density – the total number of people per a unit of land area. U.S. = 76/mi2; NYC=1,000,000/mi2; Australia = 7/mi2
Physiological Density – the total number of people per a unit of arable (farmable) land.

6. World and Country Population Totals
Distribution and Structure: 3/4 of people live on 5% of earth's surface!
Total: 6 billion on planet as of Oct. 12, 1999
Current Population Counter
Five most populous regions and countries
REGION POPULATION COUNTRY POPULATION
East Asia 1.5 billion China billion
South Asia 1.2 billion India 986 million
Europe 750 million U.S million
SE Asia 500 million Indonesia 206 million
East N. Am.120 million Brazil 168 million

8. Rates of Natural Increase

9. ALWAYS EXPRESSED AS A PERCENT!!!
NIR Formula
CBR – CDR=NIR
Example: 20 (CBR)-5 (CDR)=15 per 1,000 or
1.5%
ALWAYS EXPRESSED AS A PERCENT!!!

11. Total Fertility Rate TFR - the average number of children a women will have in her childbearing years. This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan, Italy) to around 7 (Niger, Mali). The U.S. rate is 2.
Palestinian Territories
Fertility Rate
7.39
7.00
6.43
6.46
5.99
5.57
U.K.
Total fertility rate
1.72
1.80
1.81
1.78
1.70
1.66
2.1 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world. In less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for so many children not reaching childbearing age.
Africa
Fertility Rate
6.60
6.45
6.11
5.67
5.26
4.97

12. Infant Mortality Rate IMR – the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births. The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore, Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone, Afghanistan). The U.S. rate is just over 6. High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek “insurance” for the loss of children.

13. Family Planning Programs
One family/one child policies
Female infanticide
Social compensation fees
Sterilization
Loss of status
Termination healthcare/food coupons
Free birth control
Increased literacy and education

15. Demographic Transition Model

16. Demographic Transition Model
Stage one (preindustrial/pre-agricultural)
Crude birth/death rate high
Several spikes and drops in CBR/CDR
Stage two (improved agriculture and medicine)
Lower death rates
Infant mortality rate falls
Natural increase very high
Stage three (Social change)
Indicative of richer developed countries
Higher standards of living/education
Crude birth rate finally falls
Stage four
Crude birth/death rates low
Population stable
Populations aging

17. 3 reasons for stage changes
Agricultural
Revolution
Industrial
Medical
Occurred around 8000 B.C.
Humans began to farm and establish ecumene
Famine, droughts and wars kept CBR and CDR unstable
Occurred in 1750
Improvement in industrial technology
Increased wealth, sanitary conditions, agricultural production
Led to higher CBR and lower CDR
Late 20th century
Helped LDCs enter stage 2
Increased CBR and decreased CDR
Improved life expectancy
Immunizations, anitbiotics

18. Change from stage 2 to stage 3
Technology
Economic
Social
Medical technology allows for CBR and CDR to decrease
Infant mortality rate declines
People live in urban areas with less room
People work in offices or factories
Kids are not economics assets to their parents
No child labor in urban cities
Women enter labor force
Access to birth control methods
Increased wealth and leisure time
No need to reproduce

19. Cape Verde Stage 2 Remained in stage 1 until 1950
Still in stage 2 for several reasons
Famine
Fluctuating CBR and CDR
Long term effects of fluctuation
Medical revolution

20. Chile Stage 3
Changed from an agricultural society to an industrial society
Moved to stage 2 because of medical revolution
Moved to stage 3 because of government family planning policies in Reduced incomes and high employment postponed marriage and childbearing
Will not move into stage 4 because Chile has reversed policy and most Chileans are Roman Catholic who do not believe in artificial birth control methods

21. Denmark Stage 4 Increasingly high number of elderly
CBR is declining while CDR is rising
CDR will continue to rise unless a new medical revolution takes place
Denmark has a column population pyramid that is top heavy with the elderly

23. Stage 2 countries have a dependency ratio of 1:1
10:1 for younger dependants
Stage 4 countries have a dependency ratio of 2:1
Elderly and young are roughly equal
More than ¼ government expenditures are on the elderly in stage 3 and 4 countries
Women outnumber men in most MDCs
Countries with high immigration have more males
Retirement communities have more women than men
Population Pyramids are effected by ethnic compositions

26. 4 3 5 2 1 1

27. Analysis of Italy’s Population Pyramid
1. Decline in Birth Rate
2. Baby Boom
3. Fewer men due to World War I and II
4. More women due to: a. longer life expectancy and b. World Wars (I and II)
5. More yrs than 0-4 yrs. Signs of a future worker shortage and an overall declining population. 1

29. Thomas Malthus on Population
An Essay on the Principle of Population, 1798
Malthus predicted population would outrun food supply, leading to a decrease in food per person.
Assumptions
Populations grow exponentially.
Food supply grows arithmetically.
Food shortages and chaos inevitable.

30. Neo Malthusians People who support Malthus’ original hypothesis but tweaked the theory
Malthus failed to include LDCs in his theory
LDCs entered stage 2 not because of wealth but because of medical revolution
Overpopulation affects not just food production but also other resources
Population will continue to rise in LDCs therefore people will be fighting over resources not just food

31. Critics of Malthus Possibilism allows for humans to change environment
Larger population stimulates economic growth and ideas
Marxists believe poverty and hunger are a result of unjust social institutions
Higher population for national defense (armies)
Capitalism creates unequal access to resources

32. Declining Birth Rates
The only way to stop overpopulation is to control the CBR of LCDs
Reasons for decline are lower CBR or higher CDR
Two ways to lower CBR
Increased economic development provides better education and health care
Distribution of contraceptives and education about family planning

33. Epidemiological Transition
Stage 4 delayed stage 3 because of medical technology
Possible stage 5 reemergence of stage 1 (infectious and parasitic diseases)
Evolution of diseases, poverty and increased travel
Malaria, TB and SARS
Stage 1 Pestilence and famine
Black Plaque
Stage 2 Pandemics
Cholera
Stage 3 degenerative diseases
Cardiovascular disease, heart attacks

34. Summary
Overpopulation is a relationship between the size of the population and a region’s level of resources
CBR must be reduced in order to curb global population growth
Countries experience different population and epidemiological transitions
Malthus was only partly correct
LDCs increasing populations make up for MDCs declining populations