1. Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute
Understanding the 2013/2014 Maize Harvest
Ballard Zulu and Nicholas J. Sitko
Agricultural Cooperating Partners , June 10th 2014
Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute

2. Introduction
According to the 2013/2014 CFS, Zambia is forecasted to harvest 3.4 MMT this season, up from 2.5 MMT last season
This was despite a season that had a late onset of rains & late government input delivery
Is the increase of 900,000 MT real or the result of incorrect forecast data?

3. Understanding the Crop Forecast Survey
The crop forecast is a statement of the most likely yield or production of a crop in a given year.
Conducted prior to harvest (March to April) based on the expert judgement of farmers
Most crops have reached physiological maturity
Assumptions- weather conditions and damage during the remainder of the season will be about the same as the average over previous years
A total sample of 680 SEAs (13,600 households) are drawn out of the 12,788 SEAs as defined by the Census (sampling frame).

4. Standard Enumerations Areas

5. High Level of Quality Assurance
Use high standards of scientific sampling based on probability selection methods that are widely known and accepted
Training is provided at all levels
Enumerators, supervisors, trainers, data entry staff etc…
Release of results is preceded by systematic data quality control and verification by a joint team from CSO and MAL with technical support from IAPRI and MSU

6. CFS results are confirmed by PHS

7. Source of growth in maize production
In total maize production expanded by 32% between 2012/13 and 2013/14
22% due to yield increase
8% due to area expansion
2% due to the interaction of area and yield
What were the conditions that facilitated this growth in yield?
Improvements in prices and market conditions
Increased use of commercially purchased inputs
Aided by improved rainfall conditions

8. Real Mean Monthly Wholesale Maize Prices 2012-2013
Source: CSO

9. Fertilizer Trade Data Imports 270,765 317,523 448,040 397,727 545,384
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Imports
270,765
317,523
448,040
397,727
545,384
Exports
6,851
10,985
2,425
4,813
2,802
Non Agric use (Ammonium & Sodium Nitrate)
28,693
37,645
62,860
62,562
49,315
Domestic Availability
235,222
268,893
382,755
330,353
493,267
Source: Zambia Revenue Authority

10. Change in Smallholder Fertilizer Use By Source
2012/13
2013/14
Change in basal use (kg)
Change in top dressing use (kg)
% change basal
% change top
Kg basal
Kg Top Dressing
FISP/FSP/MAL (Direct from FISP or via a COOP)
723853
715530
721681
719693
-2172
4163
-0.3%
0.6%
Cash purchase from private trader/retailer
773874
808230
913682
945837
139808
137607
18.1%
17.0%
Loan purchase from out-grower scheme or others
40635
29133
69444
56679
28809
27546
70.9%
94.6%
Purchase from cooperative or farmer association
32790
33632
59030
58205
26240
24573
80.0%
73.1%
Source: CFS 2013/14

11. Rainfall Pattern
Generally, the soil moisture was sufficient over most parts of Zambia and a substantial improvement was observed over the eastern parts of the country by first dekad of January.
The water requirement satisfaction index (WRSI) which is a crop performance indicator of the degree to which a maize crop has been satisfied indicated very good yield prospects for the 2013/14 season.
Source: MET

12. Soil Water Index for Maize in 2013/14
Source: MET

13. Contextual analysis supported by econometric modelling
VARIABLES
Log production se
Female
-1.674***
0.433
Education
0.109***
0.040
Log(adults)
0.178
0.133
Log(hectares)
1.210***
0.222
Log(fert.kg: FISP)
0.037
0.068
Log(fert.kg: other)
0.092***
0.021
Log(maize t-1)
1.467***
0.284
Rainfall
0.002
Rainfall2
-0.000*
0.000
Rainfall CV
-0.692*
0.367
Observations
147
Number of dist 74
Household controls
Inputs
Prices
Rainfall
Dep. variable is the log of the district average of HH production/yield

14. Contextual analysis supported by econometric modelling

15. Implications of the bumper harvest
Regional surplus
South Africa recorded a record white maize surplus of 1.8 million tons
Malawi projected to have 3.9 million tons
Tanzania, and Mozambique are anticipating adequate to surplus harvests
Zimbabwe and Congo remain structurally deficit, but this deficit is shrinking.
Zimbabwe reports nearly adequate supplies though likely due to conversion of other cereals to maize equivalents
Implications:
Zambian maize prices likely to trade at export parity.
Given export opportunities and transactions costs SAFEX prices likely to set Zambia export parity

16. Anticipated Maize Prices
Mean SAFEX white maize contracts
September 2014
$185.20/mt
December 2014
$190.85/mt
March 2015
$211.05/mt
Lusaka export parity prices (assuming 7 kwacha to the dollar)
September 2014
66.57 per 50 kg bag
December 2014
68.54 per 50 kg bag
March 2015
75.61 per 50 kg bag

17. Anticipated Maize Prices
Mean SAFEX white maize contracts
September 2014
$185.20/mt
December 2014
$190.85/mt
March 2015
$211.05/mt
Lusaka export parity prices (assuming 5 kwacha to the dollar)
September 2014
47.55 per 50 kg bag
December 2014
48.96 per 50 kg bag
March 2015
54.01 per 50 kg bag

18. Conclusions
Zambia’s 2013/14 CFS provides an accurate assessment of the nation’s crop production figures

19. Conclusion The bumper harvest was enabled by a combination of factors:
Increased predictability about government’s intentions in the maize market
Encouraged private sector investment in maize procurement and input credit, and drew commercial farmers back into maize production
Higher spot market prices and emergent credit systems helped farmers intensify production through increased fertilizer use
Good rainfall helped farmers reap higher yields from their investments in inputs.

20. Conclusion
FISP fertilizer does not appear to have contributed to the production increase, possibly due to late delivery.
Lower prices for cotton and soya also drew more land into maize production.

21. Recommendations
The private sector and Zambian smallholders show an incredible ability to respond to positive policy developments. To build on this GZR must:
Immediately announce FRA’s intention to only purchase the current shortfall between its carry over from last year and what is needed for the nation's strategic reserve requirements (~400,000 tons)
Announce the FRA purchase price and intended areas of activity.
These should be in remote rural markets
Announce the price at which FRA maize will be sold to the market. If private sector prices remain below this level FRA maize should be directed at needy populations
Maize exports will have no restrictions for the entirety of the 2014/15 marketing season

22. Thank you

23. Maize production trends
Source: CFS various years

24. Crop
Expected Production
2012/2013
2013/2014
% change
Maize
2,532,800
3,350,671
32.29
Maize (for seed)
35,190
28,968
(17.68)
Sorghum
14,971
11,557
(22.80)
Rice
44,747
49,640
10.93
Millet
23,942
30,504
27.41
Sunflower
33,733
34,264
1.57
Groundnuts
106,792
143,591
34.46
Soya beans
261,063
214,179
(17.96)
Cotton
139,583
120,314
(13.80)
Irish potatoes
22,038
33,833
53.52
Mixed beans
56,411
61,749
9.46
Bambara nuts
4,842
7,140
47.45
Cowpeas
4,143
5,301
27.96
Sweet potatoes
188,355
150,158
(20.28)
Wheat
273,584
201,504
(26.35)
Barley
11,524
8,425
(26.89)
Popcorn
7,203
4,377
(39.23)
Virginia Tobacco
21,195
26,105
23.16
Burley Tobacco
8,704
9,564
9.88

25. Crop
Area planted (ha)
2012/2013
2013/2014
% change
Maize
1,312,402
1,419,326
8.15
Maize (for seed)
6,903
5,926
(14.16)
Maize (for silage)
1,682
1,759
4.56
Green Maize
293
220
(24.82)
Sorghum
23,112
17,335
(25.00)
Rice
38,520
40,974
6.37
Millet
33,834
39,535
16.85
Sunflower
66,515
66,616
0.15
Groundnuts
207,249
249,432
20.35
Soya beans
124,858
116,515
(6.68)
Cotton
172,160
133,975
(22.18)
Irish potatoes
1,757
0.14
Mixed beans
104,177
110,739
6.30
Bambara nuts
5,155
6,765
31.23
Cowpeas
7,873
7,952
1.01
Sweet potatoes
48,454
47,689
(1.58)
Wheat
41,810
28,161
(32.65)
Barley
1,528
1,130
(26.07)
Popcorn
5,562
6,280
12.90
Virginia Tobacco
11,348
15,292
34.75
Burley Tobacco
7,091
7,297
2.90

26. Crop
Yield (MT/ha)
2012/2013
2013/2014
% change
Maize
1.93
2.36
22.32
Maize (for seed)
5.10
4.89
(4.15)
Sorghum
0.65
0.67
2.57
Rice
1.16
1.21
4.44
Millet
0.71
0.77
8.67
Sunflower
0.51
0.85
Groundnuts
0.52
0.58
10.71
Soyabeans
2.09
1.84
(12.05)
Cotton
0.81
0.90
10.87
Irish potatoes
12.54
19.23
53.35
Mixed beans
0.54
0.56
3.26
Bambara nuts
0.94
1.06
12.27
Cowpeas
0.53
25.78
Sweet potatoes
3.89
3.15
(19.06)
Wheat
6.54
7.16
9.41
Barley
7.54
7.46
(1.09)
Popcorn
1.30
0.70
(46.38)
Virginia Tobacco
1.87
1.71
(8.71)

27. Crop
Expected Sales
2012/2013
2013/2014
% change
Maize
1,336,141
1,912,533
43.14
Maize (for seed)
29,671
28,124
(5.22)
Sorghum
4,000
2,384
(40.41)
Rice
21,432
29,751
38.82
Millet
6,959
11,020
58.36
Sunflower
659
2,026
207.46
Groundnuts
44,661
64,773
45.03
Soya beans
244,882
194,833
(20.44)
Irish potatoes
20,983
32,749
56.07
Mixed beans
29,733
34,871
17.28
Bambara nuts
1,245
2,340
87.94
Cowpeas
1,176
1,687
43.46
Sweet potatoes
85,473
83,381
(2.45)
Wheat
267,317
195,004
(27.05)
Barley
11,524
8,425
(26.89)
Popcorn
5,475
4,420
(19.28)