1. Real Estate Supply Structure and Unemployent
Ing. David Slavata, Ph.D.
VŠB-TU Ostrava
Faculty of Economics
Czech Republic

2. Basic Idea Discussion with students
Are the countries with a high share of homeownership richer?
Is rental housing suitable only for poor?
Should the governments support homeownership?
Housing policy of Great Britain of 90 ´s, USA 2008, Eastern Europe of 90 ´s

3. A. Oswald – The Housing Market and Europe´s Unemployment, 1999
Low level of employment mobility of families in home ownership
Low level of regional development due the ownership clubs, who restrict technical infrastructure development.

4. Does the unemployment affect the share of flats ready for rent?
Research questions
Is there any economical relationship between numbers of adverts in newspapers and economical and political events?
Does the unemployment affect the share of flats ready for rent?
Is it possible to estimate unemployment by changing the share of rental dwellings in the market

5. Advertisements Analysis
Lidové Noviny from –
312 newspapers
5000 adverts were recorded
Recalculated as average to avoid seasonal fluctuations
To avoid identical advertisements the duration between searched edition was two months
The adverts were sorted into homogenous groups

6. Genetic Code of the Real Estate Market – 51 years
CZECHOSLOVAK REPUBLIC
I WW
Emigrat.
G D
II WW
HABSBURG EMPIRE

7. Multiflat houses for sale Farmhouses for sale Family houses for sale
The main segments of real estate market in 20 ´s and 30´s in Czechoslovakia
Flats for rent
Multiflat houses for sale
Farmhouses for sale
Family houses for sale

9. Statistical estimation
Descriptive statistics
Pearson correlation coefficient
Ordinary least squares

11. Time shifts between unemployment and structure of housing market

13. Confirmation of Osvald's postulate: Employment mobility in rental sector is significantly sensitive, while the mobility in family housing segment is inconclusive.

14. New postulate: The share of rental sector predates future level of unemployment.

15. Explanation Maximization of tenant´s benefit
If the tenant loses his job and is not able to find comparable, he leaves current rented flat
He maximizes his benefit if the day when leaves rental flat is his last day to have job.
Notice period (for rental agreement and for job agreement) force tenants to start the negotiation in advance (contract economy – Holmstrom, Hart))
Maximization of landlord´s benefit
If he is informed in advance the tenant will release the flat, he offers flat for rent it does not matter if it is still occupied.