1. 2013 Macau Rainy Season Forecast
Macau Meteorological & Geophysical Bureau
Apr 2013

2. Climate normal (1981-2010) - Precipitation(mm)
Month
Average
Below normal
Normal
Above normal
Jan
26.5
< 7.0
> 35.6
Feb
59.5
< 8.4
> 55.7
Mar
89.3
< 44.9
> 88.5
Apr
195.2
< 105.5
> 222.6
May
311.1
< 200.1
> 386.8
June
363.8
< 235.2
> 431.9
July
297.4
< 175.7
> 354.3
Aug
343.1
< 233.7
> 393.5
Sept
219.5
< 123.2
> 278.0
Oct
79.0
< 20.5
> 92.1
Nov
43.7
< 7.4
> 54.2
Dec
30.2
< 6.8
> 35.8
Annual
2058.1
<
>

3. Climate normal (1981-2010) - Temperature(℃)
Month
Average
Below normal
Normal
Above normal
Jan
15.1
≤14.5
>15.7
Feb
15.8
≤14.6
>16.6
Mar
18.3
≤17.8
>19.0
Apr
22.1
≤21.7
>22.6
May
25.6
≤25.0
>26.2
June
27.6
≤27.2
>28.0
July
28.6
≤28.3
>29.0
Aug
28.4
≤28.1
>28.7
Sept
27.4
>27.8
Oct
25.0
≤24.7
>25.4
Nov
20.9
≤20.4
>21.6
Dec
16.8
≤16.2
>17.5
Annual
22.6
≤22.4
>22.9

4. Precipitation & Temperature Anomaly in Macau(1952-2012)
(1) Pre-flood season (Apr-June)
(2) Post-flood season (July-Sept)

5. Review of 2012 flood season in Macau
Precipitation(mm)
Apr-June
July-Sept
Temperature(℃)
Climate normal
( )
Average
870.1
860
25.1
28.1
Amount(2012)
679.6
611.2
25.5
27.9
Anomaly
-21.9%
-28.9%
+0.4
-0.2
Forecast(last year)
Normal

6. Model prediction for last year(2012) - ECMWF

7. 2013 rainy season forecast for Macau

8. Model prediction- ECMWF

9. Model prediction - NCEP

10. Model prediction - NCEP

11. System & Circulation Analysis

12. Historical pattern composite – AMJ

13. Historical pattern composite – JAS

14. Geopotential height – 500hPa

15. Streamline Anomaly – 850hPa

16. Precipitation Anomaly

17. ITCZ - OLR
数据源: Linear Inverse Modeling Tropical OLR and SST Anomalies Pentads 12,18,24,30,36,42 Forecasts, NOAA

18. Results Analysis
Subtropical-high is stronger than normal, which is not favored for precipitation but favored for high temperature in South China.
The convection between the eastern Indian Ocean and South China Sea which extends east to the Western Pacific is stronger than normal, which may imply the ITCZ is stronger than normal and is further north.

19. ENSO-neutral is favored into Northern Hemisphere fall 2013.
ENSO prediction throughout 2013
中部 (10S-10N, 165E-140W) 東部 (15S-5N, W) 西部 (10S-20N, E) Nino3.4 (5S-5N, W)
ENSO-neutral is favored into Northern Hemisphere fall 2013.

20. ENSO condition vs. Rainy season in Macau
Source: Running 3-month mean ONI values,

21. Conclusion Apr-June (Prec.) Apr-June (Temp.) July-Sept (Prec.)
July-Sept (Temp.)
ECMWF
below normal
above normal
normal
NCEP
above normal
IRI
no signal
ENSO reference
System analysis
Conclusion

22. Thank you !