1. AMREF International Training Center, Nairobi
Assessing GAC risk and emerging good practices: Public Expenditure Tracking Surveys
March , 2011
AMREF International Training Center, Nairobi
Sahr J. Kpundeh

2. The presentation Why new tools for public expenditure analysis?
What are Public Expenditure Tracking Surveys (PETS)?
Examples (Uganda, Mozambique, and more)
Strengths and limitations of PETS

3. Why new tools to analyze public spending and service delivery?
Limited impact of public spending and external aid on growth and human development (WDR 2004)
Inappropriate allocation of resources
Resources do not reach service delivery units
Poor quality of service delivery
Services are not used by the population
New approaches to aid delivery (budget support, PRSCs, etc) => fiduciary and accountability concerns
Are budget allocations pro-poor?
Are budget outturns consistent with allocations?
Do expenditures result in intended outputs and outcomes?
Lack of reliable data in many developing countries

4. Public Expenditure Tracking and Service Delivery Surveys
First Public Expenditure Tracking Survey (PETS) carried out in Uganda in 1996
Since then, a large number of PETS and related surveys have been implemented
Scope and nature of surveys have differed, but common theme is link between public spending and development outcomes
Surveys to date
Completed
Uganda (3)
Tanzania (2)
Ghana
Rwanda
Mozambique
Zambia
PNG
Honduras
Peru
Bangladesh
and more…
Ongoing
Ethiopia
Nigeria
Brazil
Laos

5. The Approach
Approach has varied considerably depending on context and focus
Multilevel focus, but frontline providers (schools or health facilities) as main unit of observation
Multi-angular approach for validation of data
Representative sample
Data collected through interviews and record reviews
Some surveys include detailed surveys of frontline provider, including availability/adequacy of inputs, quality, staff and user interviews, etc.

6. What a PETS can and cannot do
Resource flow Money Drugs Equipment Schoolbooks etc.
Issues that PETS can address
Outturn consistent with allocation (leakage?)
Consistency of records between different levels (leakage?)
- Actual allocation of resources across districts and facilities (equity and efficiency?)
Delays in financial transfers or distribution of material
Central
“Paper trail”
Province
District
Budget records Stock cards Payrolls Student lists etc.
Fee revenues
School /
Facility
Issues that PETS can’t address
“Cooked” books
Services

7. Uganda Education PETS (1995)
Education sector
Data from 250 schools and administrative units
Only 13 percent of capitation grant entitlement actually reached schools ( ).
Mass information campaign by Ministry of Finance (the press, posters)
Follow-up surveys (PETS, provider surveys, integrity surveys, etc.)
High leakage has also been found in other countries (Tanzania, Ghana, Zambia, Peru)
Many improvements since 1992
macroeconomic stability and growth
shift of public resources from defense to roads and social sectors
decentralization
Poverty Eradication Action Plan (PEAP)
Poverty reduced from 56% in 1992/93 to 35 % in 2000
Strong budget management
MTEF, Poverty Action Fund (PAF)
Sector level performance did not keep up
SYSTEMATIC PATTERNS IN LEAKAGE:
Large schools with wealthier parents and qualified teachers were able to obtain more of their budget allocation.

8. Mozambique Health ETSDS (2002)
No budget allocations to individual primary health facilities => focus on:
Consistency of records between different levels
Equity and efficiency in allocation of resources
Timeliness of resource transfers
Perceptions of staff and users
Sampled 90 health facilities in 35 districts nationwide

9. Mozambique ETSDS findings
Weak record keeping and “leakage”
District-level financial records for recurrent budget inconsistent with province-level records for 75% of districts, but no systematic pattern
Discrepancies in drug records and some evidence of leakage
Inconsistent HR records (provincial admin., district admin, facilities)
Facility reporting of user fee revenues approx. 70% of expected amounts
Considerable inequities in allocation of resources (recurrent budget, drugs, HR, etc) across districts and facilities

10. Nigeria: Health PETS
Motivation: To assess a decentralized delivery of health services under a federal system.
Findings:
Large-scale leakage of public resources in Kogi State.
42 percent of health staff had not received salaries in over six months, despite the fact that budget allocations were sufficient to cover costs.
To supplement salaries, public health providers charged for services illegally, while expropriating drug supplies and selling them to patients.
Follow Up: Though the study suggested that providing service users and citizens with more information about budget resources so they could hold providers accountable, no documented post-PETS experiences currently exist.
11/24/2018
Sahr J. Kpundeh

11. The strengths of the approach
Useful tool for diagnosing and understanding problems in budget execution and service delivery
District and frontline provider perspective often forgotten at central level
Representative sample provides credibility not achieved through small-sample studies or institutional reviews
Validation of administrative data (financial and output)
Can provide basis for monitoring of changes over time
Surveys provide data for research that can improve our understanding of the determinants of poor service delivery
Process of designing and implementing survey is useful for understanding PEM and service delivery system

12. Some limitations Surveys only provide part of the answer
What about inter- and intra-sectoral allocations?
Link with outcomes?
Surveys should supplement rather than supplant routine information, control, and integrity systems
Surveys are not audits
Enumerators do not have appropriate skills
Too time consuming for large sample
Focus on system-diagnostic rather than particular districts or facilities
Surveys provide information but don’t necessarily result in change
A lack of information may not be primary constraint to improving PEM and service delivery – findings need to be used strategically

13. PETS and the demand-side
Dissemination is a often the most critical part of converting PETS findings into reforms
For example, Ugandan government subsidized information campaign
The media can be a strong ally
Sustained dissemination is important
Implementation
CSOS can be involved in different stages of PETS implementation, and also sometimes are enlisted to carry out monitoring PETS
Monitoring PETS, which are also analytical in nature, ask whether an intervention is working as intended and other narrow questions about service delivery at the local level.
Institutionalization
For sustainability, it is important to think about how PETS can become a CSO led or collaborative exercise
Tracking exercises institutionalized at the community level can also be tied to performance-based budgeting of service providers
Institutionalization can take a variety of forms depending on country circumstances. Models can be: (i) independent civil society organizations undertake in partnership with external organizations (Uganda), (ii) governments monitor their own performance as part of ongoing public sector reforms, and (iii) an oversight agency such as the Auditing Bureau undertakes the
ICT offers opportunities to track and disseminate expenditures on a more real-time basis as well as to extend dissemination of traditional PETS findings

14. Tanzania: Primary Education Project
A pilot PETS was conducted on the PEDP in The pilot which covered a limited number of schools and local authorities, suggested that leakage was at less than 5 percent. This meant for every Tshs. 100 disbursed to schools from Central Government, an average of more than Tshs. 95 made it to the schools.
It turned out this finding was mistaken since the survey had only registered funds disbursed from the Ministry of Finance.
The Consultants had not realized, nor were they told that both the Ministries of Education and Local Government had also disbursed significant portions of the funding to the PEDP.
This meant that the survey only captured about a third of the money going into the PEDP, and what the pilot identified as “minimal” leakage was, in fact, a considerable leakage.
11/24/2018
Sahr J. Kpundeh

15. Tanzania Cont’d.
After this on the surface, successful pilot, the GoT decided to run a nation-wide Tracking Survey on the PEDP, and hired a prominent research organization, REPOA.
REPOA presented its first draft of the findings at the CG in May Among other things, the findings documented that approx. 40% of the grant was not accounted for.
The MoF quickly issued a rebuttal questioning the methodological authenticity of the REPOA study.
REPOA made clarifications to the methodological questions raised in their final report which did not affect any of their earlier findings.
REPOA did not receive any reactions from the GoT on their response to the rebuttal or the final draft of the report. Neither has the draft PETS ever been officially acknowledged, not is it available on any website (except for a brief summary on the U4 website
11/24/2018
Sahr J. Kpundeh

16. Conclusions
A key lesson from the successful application of PETS in Uganda was that the empowerment of communities to claim monetary entitlements was the main driver of improvements and the significant reductions in leakages.
It appears that in Tanzania, informing communities of their entitlements was done poorly and patchily, and this left people with limited and unreliable information for follow-up.
The story of the Tanzanian PETS experience clearly shows that PETS cannot be seen as a silver bullet. The application of PETS is only likely to help bring about successful reform if it is seen as part of a comprehensive drive to streamline and simplify what is a complex and opaque system of financial management.
Although learning from “best practice” is a good thing, being informed about “poor practice” is also important when learning from previous experience. The Uganda PETS demonstrated the potential impact of a very attractive approach for improving efficiency in service delivery. The question then is why are there so few examples of successful replication of the Uganda accomplishments elsewhere?
11/24/2018
Sahr J. Kpundeh