1. Trends and Transitions
Colorado:
Trends and Transitions
2018
Heather Champeau
State Demography Office
Colorado Department of Local Affairs
Demography.dola.colorado.gov

2. Big Picture: 2016-2017 Pop Change
US – million, million or .7%
Colorado - 5,609,445
Ranked 9th fastest 1.4% - ID, NV, UT, WA, FL
8th in total growth 77,049 – TX, FL, CA, WA, NC, GA, AZ

3. 29 negative growth 10-13 – 27 negative growth 10-14 – 22 negative growth 10-15 (14 lost pop in 2015)
19 with negative pop change 13-14
12 negative natural increase 12-13
9 negative natural increase 13-14
23 negative net migration 13-14
30 negative net migration 12-13

7. 2015 – 66,300 births and 36,200 deaths to give a natural increase of 30,100 – slowest natural increase since 1995
2016 – a slight uptick of less than 300 in natural increase – numbers still yet to be finalized by CDPHE

9. Population changes as a result of three things – a birth, a death, or a mover. Those moved in minus those that moved out is net migration.
As we look back – times with significant job growth, saw significant population growth. (1970s, 1990s) Natural resource bust, tech bust, great recession.
Note that of 100,000 person increase last year as well as forecast for this year – only 60% of that change is due to migration – the remainder due to births.
Natural Increase is projected to decline after 2028 as the population transitions from a young age distribution to a more average distribution causing an increase in the death rate.
The number of births will continue to increase, a result of a larger population base from which they are born.
The number of deaths also increases, but increases faster, given a larger population base and a larger share of older persons who are subject to higher mortality rates. Slow our overall population growth. In recent years births also slowed – consistent with slowing of births during recessions, also unique new trend – significant decreases in younger women’s fertility.
Colorado’s economy was growing rapidly in 1970……

10. Jobs are People!

11. Colorado by Generation, 2017
Youngest Mills = 21
Oldest Mills old enough to run for president for 2 years
BBs fall off near/after 60
Post-70 pop drops dramatically
All Gen X closer to 50 than 20
Oldest PMs cannot drink; youngest = toddlers

12. Much greater representation of Mills
Denver by Generation, 2017
Much greater representation of Mills

13. Much more even representation across Xers, Mills, and PMs
Adams by Generation, 2017
Much more even representation across Xers, Mills, and PMs

14. Jefferson by Generation, 2017
More even representation across generations, but strong showing in BBs

15. Considerations on Age and Aging
Varying Preferences and Needs: Housing Income Service Demands Labor Force

16. Economic Impact From Aging
Support .3 jobs per person 65+
Many of the jobs created to serve 65+ are in occupations with low wages, a few at higher wages.
1 of every 10 jobs forecast to be home health aides and personal care aides. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

17. Age

19. Source: State Demography Office

20. A higher ratio indicates more financial stress between working people and dependents. You can lower dependency ratio by bringing in more young adults without kids.

21. Aging and Public Finance
Ratio of 65+ per year olds in CO
Meeting national trends
Public Finance – reduced revenue
Income tax – downward pressure
Sales tax – downward pressure
Property tax – downward pressure
Public Finance – increased need
Health services – increasing
Medicaid – increasing

22. Continuing Trends in Racial/Ethnic Diversity

24. This makes it look like aging Hispanics may not be a big deal but between 2000 and 2010 Hispanic 65+ increased by 56% compared to the entire population which increased by 32% Forecast to increase by 97%
Census Bureau

25. About 60% of the growth in the labor force will be Hispanic.
If the Labor force increases by 100, 60 of them will be Hispanic.

26. Source ACS yr PUMS

27. Educational Attainment Gap
Colorado has 2nd/3rd highest educational attainment gap in nation between non-Hispanic Whites and those of Hispanic heritage
- 1. Washington D.C.- 51
- 2. California – 31
- 3. Colorado – 30
- 4. Hawaii - 28
- 5. Massachusetts – 28
One of the highest bachelor’s attainment levels in US by non-Hispanic Whites (46%)
Colorado is 24th in attainment by Hispanics (16%)
Colorado's gap in 2006 was 27.7, 2.6 percentage points lower than the gap is today.  At that time White non-Hispanic was 39.6% (6.4 lower than today) and Hispanic was 15.7 (3.8 lower than today).
A much higher increase in attainment of Bachelor's or higher for White non-Hispanic than Hispanic.
ACS 2016 Population 25+ with bachelor’s degree or higher.

28. 2017 ACS 1-year estimates

30. Trends and Conclusions
Growth in racial/ethnic diversity – especially at the young end.
Growth in aging adults 65+
Dependency Ratio Changes
Educational/Labor Force Challenges
Transition Decade

31. Thank you State Demography Office Department of Local Affairs
Heather Champeau
demography.dola.colorado.gov