1. google: cisn shakemap nc
38°
google: cisn shakemap nc
37.5°
37°
123°
122°
121°

2. The Next Bay Area Earthquake
What to expect
What is the Hazard in San Jose?
Dr. John Boatwright, Bay Area Earthquake Alliance Co-Chair
Co-Regional Coordinator for Northern California US Geological Survey

3. California urban areas are prisoners of the Plate Boundary
North American Plate
E-A
SF Bay Area
Greater LA
Pacific Plate
California urban areas are
prisoners of the Plate Boundary

4. 40 mm/yr Farallons-Sierra Nevada
North
American
plate
Pacific
plate

5. Hayward Earthquake
1868
“We need to correct our style of architecture … to work a savings of untold sums of money in the future”
- San Jose Mercury News October 29, 1868
Note types of building damage

6. 1906 San Francisco 20 foot fence offset in 1906 near Pt. Reyes
“mole track” is a common surface expression of an earthquake fault in soil

7. Loma Prieta
1989

10. Moment Accumulation in the SF Bay Region
Cumulative M0, dyne-cm
Stress Shadow

11. 2007-2036 63% In the next 30 years there is a 62%
probability, nearly a 2
in 3 chance, of a
magnitude 6.7 or larger
earthquake in the
greater Bay Area.
Hazard is highest in
the East Bay due to
the larger number of
faults there, including
the Hayward fault.
UCERF2 Report (2007) 3% 1%
31%
21%
11%
63% 7% 6%

12. M ≥ 6.7 Hazard is highest in the East Bay due to the larger
number of faults
including the
Hayward Fault.

13. 1868 Hayward Earthquake this ShakeMap is based on damage reports-
there were only 260,000 people in the Bay Area
38°
the shaking
was strongest
in San Leandro and Hayward
-121.5°
-121°

14. Hayward Fault Earthquake: The Infrastructure Earthquake14

15. Animation of Shaking from a M7.0 on the Hayward Fault
San Leandro Epicenter

16. Losses by county - M7.0 scenario
Sonoma
Solano
Santa Clara
Santa Mateo
San Francisco
Marin
Contra Costa
Alameda
$ $40B $ $100
Economic Loss ($Billions) 16

17. What will happen in the next large earthquake?
Soft-Story Damage & Failures
Fire Following Earthquake

18. Soft-Story Buildings
the mayor of San Francisco just made soft-story retrofits voluntary rather than mandatory 18

19. 1989 Favorable Fire Conditions
Marina fire