Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Manajemen Industri Teknologi informasi

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "Manajemen Industri Teknologi informasi"— Presentation transcript:

1 Manajemen Industri Teknologi informasi
LESSON 8

2 Managing Risk Manajemen Industri Teknologi Informasi - Ganjil 2012
1 Risk ID 2 Risk Assessment 3. Risk Response Development 4. Risk Response Control Manajemen Industri Teknologi Informasi - Ganjil 2012 24/11/2018

3 Risk Management Process
An uncertain event that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on project objectives Risk Management A proactive attempt to recognize and manage internal events and external threats that affect the likelihood of a project’s success What can go wrong (risk event) How to minimize the risk event’s impact (consequences) What can be done before an event occurs (anticipation) What to do when an event occurs (contingency plans) Usually negative Manajemen Industri Teknologi Informasi - Ganjil 2012 24/11/2018

4 The Risk Event Graph Risks are more likely to occur early, but addressed in a timely way are not too costly to fix. Manajemen Industri Teknologi Informasi - Ganjil 2012 24/11/2018

5 Risk Management’s Benefits
A proactive rather than reactive approach Reduces surprises and negative consequences Prepares the project manager to take advantage of appropriate risks Provides better control over the future Improves chances of reaching project performance objectives within budget and on time Manajemen Industri Teknologi Informasi - Ganjil 2012 24/11/2018

6 The Risk Management Process: a 4 Step Program
1 Risk ID: What the {bleep} can happen? 2 Risk Assessment: How {bleep}-ing serious is it? 3. Risk Response Development: What the {bleep} can be done about it? 4. Risk Response Control: Get off your {bleep} and fix it! I’ll give the Ned Flander’s version in class. People can do the Homer version on their own. Manajemen Industri Teknologi Informasi - Ganjil 2012 24/11/2018

7 Managing Risk Step 1: Risk Identification Step 2: Risk Assessment
Generate a list of possible risks through brainstorming, problem identification and risk profiling. Macro risks first, then specific events Step 2: Risk Assessment Scenario analysis Risk assessment matrix Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) Probability analysis Decision trees, NPV, and PERT Semi-quantitative scenario analysis Manajemen Industri Teknologi Informasi - Ganjil 2012 24/11/2018

8 Partial Risk Profile for Product Development Project
Manajemen Industri Teknologi Informasi - Ganjil 2012 24/11/2018

9 Risk Breakdown Structure
Manajemen Industri Teknologi Informasi - Ganjil 2012 24/11/2018

10 Risk Assessment Form: A Typical Example
Detection Difficulty is a misnomer-better to consider it as “ability to mitigate/avoid upon discovering the problem” before having to resort to a full blown contingency plan Although the text shows how to calculate “risk value” by multiplying these numbers together, be cautious about relying on such an arbitrary measure Scores may not be symmetrical. Even book cautions on this usage. Manajemen Industri Teknologi Informasi - Ganjil 2012 24/11/2018

11 Impact Scales- One Example
Manajemen Industri Teknologi Informasi - Ganjil 2012 24/11/2018

12 Risk Severity Matrix- an example
Manajemen Industri Teknologi Informasi - Ganjil 2012 24/11/2018

13 Managing Risk Step 3: Risk Response Development Mitigating Risk
Reducing the likelihood an adverse event will occur Reducing impact of adverse event Transferring Risk Paying a premium to pass the risk to another party What multibillion$ industry handles this? Avoiding Risk Changing the project plan to eliminate the risk or condition Sharing Risk Allocating risk to different parties Lastly….Retaining Risk Making a conscious decision to accept the risk The rest of these are not listed in order necessarily (Avoiding could be moved up, IMHO), but “Retaining risk” is usually the last option. Manajemen Industri Teknologi Informasi - Ganjil 2012 24/11/2018

14 Contingency Planning Contingency Plan
An alternative plan that will be used if a possible foreseen risk event actually occurs A plan of actions that will reduce or mitigate the negative impact (consequences) of a risk event Risks of Not Having a Contingency Plan Having no plan may slow managerial response further Decisions made under pressure can be potentially more dangerous and costly A Contingency plan is a BACK-UP (a Plan B)- so if it is more attractive than Plan A, why is it a contingency?? AKA Escape Route, Plan B Classic example With 2 hours before take-off, your ride to the airport flakes out. Not having a celphone- way to look up MUNI routes or a phone number for a taxi service means you are already wasting time. Panic-driven decisions don’t tend to be as rational. Manajemen Industri Teknologi Informasi - Ganjil 2012 24/11/2018

15 Sample Risk Response Matrix
Note: although unclear from this text example the Detailed Response Strategy and Contingency Plans are not the same thing. We might Reduce the chance of User Backlash by designing a more user-friendly interface. But, if we fail to do that, our Contingency Plan is to have a large support staff help frustrated users navigate Lisa Malachowsky/Nonstop document Risk event, probabililty of occurence, severity, risk reduction strategy (if any), mitigation/contigency plan We didn’t include Who and trigger explicitly Manajemen Industri Teknologi Informasi - Ganjil 2012 24/11/2018

16 Risk and Contingency Planning
Technical Risks Backup strategies if chosen technology (or tech standard) fails Assessing whether technical uncertainties can be resolved Schedule Risks Use of slack increases the risk of a late finish Imposed duration dates (absolute project finish date) Compression of schedules due to shortened project duration date Costs Risks Time/cost dependency links: costs increase when problems take longer to solve than expected. Avoid use the schedule to solve cash flow problems. Price protection risks (a rise in input costs) increase if the duration of a project is increased. Funding Risks Changes in the supply of funds for the project can affect the likelihood of implementation or successful completion of a project. Technical Risks- Market may change over time (technology outdated before begin!) Good vignette in book on WAP/Java Protocols Schedule Risks- more on this in CH9- Crashing Cost risks: Also, for international projects, exchange rate fluctuation may be appropriate to consider ( although it’s usually not a part of risk planning, according to the text) Manajemen Industri Teknologi Informasi - Ganjil 2012 24/11/2018

17 Contingency Funding and Time Buffers
Contingency Funds: Funds to cover project risks— identified and unknown Size of funds reflects overall risk of a project Budget reserves Are linked to the identified risks of specific work packages Management reserves Are large funds to be used to cover major unforeseen risks (e.g., change in project scope) of the total project Time Buffers Amounts of time used to compensate for unplanned delays in the project schedule Budget reserves work best if done some BOTTOM UP cost estimates. Management reserves not linked to specific WBS- they consider unplanned or unanticipated events. Can be done from a Top Down - broader view is sometimes useful. Manajemen Industri Teknologi Informasi - Ganjil 2012 24/11/2018

18 Contingency Fund Estimate-Sample
Pretty small management reserve there. Figures in 000’s $ Note: the Management Reserve is too small for my comfort Manajemen Industri Teknologi Informasi - Ganjil 2012 24/11/2018

19 Managing Risk Step 4: Risk Response Control Risk control
Execution of the risk response strategy Monitoring of triggering events Initiating contingency plans Watching for new risks Establishing a Change Management System Monitoring, tracking, and reporting risk Fostering an open organization environment Repeating risk identification/assessment exercises Assigning and documenting responsibility for managing risk Manajemen Industri Teknologi Informasi - Ganjil 2012 24/11/2018

20 Risk Goes Hand in Hand with…
Change is your only constant Anyone ever heard “Change is your only constant?” Working in the Bay Area, this is very true. Industries like Tech, Media, apparel and home fashion retail (Gap, WilSonoma, CostPlusWorldMarket, RestoHardware)… Start-up environment…. Lots of superstar founders/execs with ADD syndrome! Manajemen Industri Teknologi Informasi - Ganjil 2012 24/11/2018

21 Change Management Control
Sources of Change Project scope changes Implementation of contingency plans Improvement changes Scope changes- typically customer wants a new feature or to change the way an existing one is supposed to work When a contingency plan is implemented because of an event (natural disaster, market shift, whatever). Sometimes during the beginning of a project team members will discover better ways to do something than was initially planned. (A good thing in general, but we have to have a way of handling it) Manajemen Industri Teknologi Informasi - Ganjil 2012 24/11/2018

22 Change Management Control
The Change Control Process Identify proposed changes. List expected effects of proposed changes on schedule and budget. Review, evaluate, and approve or disapprove of changes formally. Negotiate and resolve conflicts of change, condition, and cost. Communicate changes to ALL parties affected. Assign responsibility for implementing change. Adjust master schedule and budget. Track all changes that are to be implemented. Manajemen Industri Teknologi Informasi - Ganjil 2012 24/11/2018

23 The Change Control Process
Manajemen Industri Teknologi Informasi - Ganjil 2012 24/11/2018

24 Benefits of a Change Control System
Inconsequential changes are discouraged by the formal process. Side benefit- record for future who makes a lot of change requests Costs of changes are maintained in a log. Integrity of the WBS and performance measures is maintained. Allocation and use of budget and management reserve funds are tracked. Responsibility for implementation is clarified. Effect of changes is visible to all parties involved. Implementation of change is monitored. Scope changes will be quickly reflected in baseline and performance measures. Manajemen Industri Teknologi Informasi - Ganjil 2012 24/11/2018

25 Change Request Form: Sample
Manajemen Industri Teknologi Informasi - Ganjil 2012 24/11/2018

26 Change Request Log: Sample
Manajemen Industri Teknologi Informasi - Ganjil 2012 24/11/2018

27 End of This Chapter Manajemen Industri Teknologi Informasi - Ganjil 2012 24/11/2018


Download ppt "Manajemen Industri Teknologi informasi"

Similar presentations


Ads by Google