1. Bioterrorism in San Fransisco
Eric Manalac
University of California, Berkeley
Client – CDC/DOD
Problem:
Bioterrrorism is terrorism that involves the release of biological agents such as bacteria. parasites. viruses, among others as weapons against a populace. Arguably the most notorious of these agents is the Variola major variant of the virus smallpox, an an airborne disease which while eradicated as a naturally occurring virus, still remains in stockpiles in both Russia and the United States. Furthermore, undocumented samples of smallpox could possibly be acquired and deployed by terrorists. In order to reduce the damage this would cause, it would be useful to know the most likely locations for a smallpox attack.
Method
Download Census Block Data From Tiger
Create Population Density as POPS UNDER 42 / AREA
Take Logarithm of This to Get Weight
Download Public Schools, Private Schools, and Starbucks from Lab 10
Digitize Mall Data from Google Maps
Create 100m Buffer for all these places
Create weight for each of these buildings
Create Union of these Places
Sum combined weights to get total weight
Repeat Process for Transit
Union All of these Together to get total opportunity weight
Create raster from contour data (DEM)
Create solar radiation from this
Turn into polygon, take log of solar radiation as negative wt and use as cons
Result
According to the analysis, the best places for a bioterrorist group to strike is on the northeast side of San Fransisco. The key factor is because the population density here is the highest and this was assigned the highest weight. Furthermore this has the most millennial and transportation gathering grounds meaning this is the optimal place to strike for a bioterrorist group.
The limitations I had is that I did not have the computational resources to model the rest of the day and could not get high resolution weather data to get a better result.
Features Used:
Raster Suitability Analysis (Solar Radiation)
Vector Suitability Analysis (Everything Else)
Problem Breakdown
Opportunity 1 – Census Blocks by Population Density
Opportunity 2 – Places where People Under 42 Hang Out (Smallpox Vaccination Stopped 1972)
Opportunity 3 – Transit Stations with High Density (BART, Amtrak, Caltrain)
Constraint – Solar Radiation (Solar Radiation is Nature’s natural disinfectant)
Sources
data.sfgov - Elevation Contours
Googlemaps + digitizing – Malls
Lab 10 Data – Everything Else
TIGER Database – Census Block
Caltrans GIS Data – BART, Amtrak, Caltrain
A Map of Bioterrorist Opportunities
A Map of Bioterrorism Constraints
A Map of Bioterrorism Suitability