1. Urban Audit Analysis II Uwe Neumann, RWI Antje Seidel-Schulze, Difu
NUAC Meeting 2009
Luxembourg
Urban Audit Analysis II Uwe Neumann, RWI Antje Seidel-Schulze, Difu
Consortium:
Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI)
German Institute of Urban Affairs – Difu
NEA Transport research and training
Policy Research & Consultancy - PRAC
Research Project for the European Commission,
DG Regional Policy

2. Opinions expressed are those of the consortium
only and do not represent the Commission´s
official position.

3. Contents of the presentation
Tasks of the Urban Audit Analysis II
State of European cities report
Issues and research questions
Structural clustering of cities (typology)
Description of indicators and research findings
Conclusions and recommendations
3. Further steps

4. I. Statistical Analysis
1. UAA II - Tasks I
I. Statistical Analysis
Analysis of inter-city differentials and dynamics based on selected indicators from all UA domains
Analysis of differentials within and between structural city clusters
Analysis of the determinants of selected key indicators of urban dynamics
Description of structural city clusters,
Decription of cities per country in comparison to national averages or by their European regions
Statistical analysis by RWI, in consultation with consortium partners

5. III. Deepening analysis of „governance“
1. UAA II - Tasks II
II. City Panel
Discussion of Urban Audit usability in general and of interim results of UAAII with panel of city representatives from 30 UA-cities
Workshop meeting in Berlin (March 2009)
III. Deepening analysis of „governance“
Using data from UA and own questionnaire survey among City Panel participants

6. IV. State of European cities report
1. UAA II - Tasks III
IV. State of European cities report
Chapter 1: Research questions and hypothesis
Chapter 2: Structural city clustering (typology)
Chapter 3: Key trends of Urban Dynamics in Europe. Description of indicators and research findings
Chapter 4: Conclusions. Answers to research questions
Chapter 5: Recommendations for Regional Policy & UA

7. Research questions on urban trends (selection)
2. SoECR – Chapter 1 - Issues and research questions
Research questions on urban trends (selection)
Spatial concentration of people and demographic change
Relation of cities compared by their region
Relation between very large and smaller cities
Role of sub-urbanisation
Environmental situation
Role of highly specialised service activities
„Social polarisation“
Regional governance

8. 2. SoECR – Chapter 2 - Structural city clustering (typology)
What do we need a typology for?
Cities differ considerably in size, economic and administrative position and economic specialisation, and
across Europe, they are embedded in a wide range of regional economic surroundings.
This makes is impossible to define one single set of challenges and policy implications for all cities.
A basic structural classification, therefore, provides the basis of “comparing the comparable”.
Typology of the first “State of European Cities Report” has been taken into account by cross-checking.

9. 2. SoECR – Chapter 2 - Structural city clustering (typology)
Prerequisites
Number of cities and countries delivering information decreases significantly from 2001 to 2004.
Reponse or delivering rates by countries in 2004 varied between 25 to 99 percent.
To avoid the affection of statistical results by missing values.
Decision to the restriction of the analysis to selected indicators with
high response rates and
indicators which represent the key research questions

10. 2. SoECR – Chapter 2 - Structural city clustering (typology)
Used indicators
“Information compaction“ – factor, cluster, discriminant analysis
Economy
Demography
Total resident population
% of population < 5
% of population 35-45
% of population > 75
New businesses in % of all companies
Unemployment rate
% of units providing ICT services IT
Prop. of working age population qualified at level 5 or 6 ISCED (university)
ISCED 5-6 (university) students per 1000 inhabitants
Training & Education
Population change (in %)
Natural population change in % of population 2004
Total population: core city/LUZ ratio
Murders and violent deaths per inhabitants
Social Aspects TT
Multimodal accessibility (EU27=100)
Environment
Economy
GDP per head in PPS*
Patent intensity (applications per 100,000 inhabitants)**
Proportion of employment in services
Population density
Number of days PM10 concentrations exceed 50 µg/m3
% of solid waste processed by landfill
Culture & Recreation
Annual cinema attendance per resident
* Additional data on NUTS 3 level,
** Data from European Patent Office, compiled by RWI

11. 2. SoECR – Chapter 2 - Structural city clustering (typology)
Cluster 1 (“Big and Capital Cities”):
52 very large and capital cities from all parts of Europe, with an
average of over 1,000,000 inhabitants in core city
Cluster 2 (“Smaller Economic Cores”):
151 cities from all parts of Western Europe, average population of around 290,000, economic prosperity somewhat lower than in Cluster 1, but considerably higher than in 3 and 4
Cluster 3 (“Smaller Cities in Peripheral Regions”):
44 cities, mainly from Western Europe; high proportion of highly qualified residents and ICT services; population growth; ~population: 140,000
Cluster 4 (“Smaller Cities in Convergence Regions”):
82 Cities in Central and Southern Europe, ~ pop.: 160,000, high unemployment, low GDP per head and relatively lower share of service activities

12. Structural Clusters

13. 2. SoECR – Chapter 3 - Description of indicators and research findings
Every main domain will be represented in an own sub-chapter
Population (Chapter 3.1)
Economy (Chapter 3.2)
Knowledge and creativity (Chapter 3.3)
Social cohesion (Chapter 3.4)
Governance and civic involvement (Chapter 3.5)
Environment and transport (Chapter 3.6)
Every sub-chapter has a similar structure:
Starts with research questions (as defined in chapter 1)
Followed by description of central indicators of domain by clusters and regions and by using different maps and pictures
Terminates with answers to research findings

14. 2. SoECR – Chapter 3 - Description of indicators and research findings
Example for sub-chapter „Population“
Research questions (2 of 13 of the report)
Is there an ongoing spatial concentration process with regard to people and economic activity in the core zone of the European economy?
Are cities in Central Europe catching up with those in Western Europe?
Description by region, clusters and by comparing cities by their national averages
Used indicators (selection) population change, different GDP-indicators

15. Average annual population change 2001-2004 in %

16. 2. SoECR – Chapter 3 - Description of indicators and research findings
Population change by clusters
, in %
Own calculation based on the Urban Audit;
329 observations (core cities), 294 observations (LUZ).

17. Real GDP* growth 2001-2004 in % *in constant 2001 Euro
Own calculation based on the Urban Audit and regional Statistics from Eurostat (NUTS 3)

18. 2. SoECR – Chapter 3 - Description of indicators and research findings
GDP per head in PPS
Core cities*, by country and region, 2004 (in thousand)
Own calculation based on the Urban Audit and regional Statistics from Eurostat (NUTS 3),
* For 249 out of 356 core cities, missing data was replaced by data on NUTS 3 regions available from Eurostat via the internet.

19. 2. SoECR – Chapter 3 - Description of indicators and research findings
GDP per head in PPS
Core City/NUTS 3 region, by cluster, 2004 (in % of national average)
Cluster Cluster Cluster Cluster 4
Own calculation based on the Urban Audit and regional Statistics from Eurostat (NUTS 3)

20. 2. SoECR – Chapter 3 - Description of indicators and research findings
Is there an ongoing spatial concentration process with regard to people
and economic activity in the core zone of the European economy?
Are cities in Central Europe catching up with those in Western Europe?
High levels of prosperity, skills, innovation, entrepreneurship and cultural diversity in a European “core zone” of Western and Northern Europe, Northern Italy, parts of Spain, and the capital cities of Central Europe
Smaller cities in Central Europe and in more peripheral parts of Northern and Southern Europe have failed to keep pace with the more vibrant cities.
There is an ongoing spatial concentration process of people: the LUZ of big cities grew faster in population ( ) than those of smaller cities.
Some degree of recovery is apparent in smaller cities of Central Europe, particularly in Poland, Romania and Slovakia: positive natural population change.
Economic growth was also particularly high in the cities of a number of Central European countries in recent years ( ).

21. 2. SoECR – Chapter 3 - Description of indicators and research findings
Example for sub-chapter „Social Cohesion“
Research questions (1 of 13 of the report)
Are large cities focal points of social polarisation?
Description by region, clusters and by comparing cities by their national averages
Used indicators (selection)
employment rate, safety

22. 2. SoECR – Chapter 3 - Description of indicators and research findings
Employment rate
Ratio of employed persons to population of working age, 2004 (in %)
Own calculation based on the Urban Audit.

23. 2. SoECR – Chapter 3 - Description of indicators and research findings
17, , , ,529
Observations
Cluster Cluster Cluster Cluster 4
European Perception Survey “I feel safe in the neighbourhood (I live in)” (Answers in percent)
Own calculation based on the European Perception Survey, 2006

24. 2. SoECR – Chapter 3 - Description of indicators and research findings
Are large cities focal points of social polarisation?
Analysis of various indicators of cohesion (unemployment and employment rates, housing space, delinquency rate, residential segregation) suggests that problems in social interaction occur in densely populated urban agglomerations.
The indicators analysed here suggest that problems in the interaction between urban residents are most acute in those regions which have failed to catch up with more prosperous parts of Europe.
In Northern and Western Europe, urban employment rates are below the national averages. An “urban paradox” is apparent in these parts of Europe in that the em- ployment rates of the resident population are low in precisely those places where jobs are concentrated: in cities.

25. 2. SoECR – Chapter 3 - Description of indicators and research findings
Example for sub-chapter „Environment“
Research questions (1 of 13 of the report)
What is the environmental situation in (large) cities?
Description by clusters and by comparing cities by their national averages
Used indicators (selection) Number of days PM10 concentrations exceed 50 µg/m³
NO2 concentration

26. 2. SoECR – Chapter 3 - Description of indicators and research findings
Number of days PM10 concentrations exceed 50 µg/m³
2004
Cluster Cluster Cluster 3 Cluster 4
Own calculation based on the Urban Audit.

27. concentrations exceed 50 µg/m³ 2004
Number of days PM10
concentrations exceed
50 µg/m³
2004
Own calculation based on the
Urban Audit

28. 2. SoECR – Chapter 3 - Description of indicators and research findings
What is the environmental situation in (large) cities?
Urban sprawl: desire to combine the advantages of urban life with some of the assets of rural life, e.g. less densely populated and greener surroundings. In some large cities, people still feel an urge to settle in the outer urban zone.
With regard to air quality, in 43 of 229 cities for which data was available in 2004, NO2 concentrations were over the specified limit of 200 µg/m³ on at least one day.
In 250 of the 270 cities delivering data in 2004, PM10 concentrations were above the threshold on at least one day.
The highest air pollution levels in 2004 were recorded in Southern and Central European cities.
There is no link between the level of air pollution and the size of settlement. A comparison of structural city clusters reveals a wide range of cities, both big and small, with good and bad air quality. .

29. Regional Policy (selection)
2. SoECR – Chapter 4 - Conclusions and recommendations
Regional Policy (selection)
It is evident that economic concentration in highly accessible, central parts of Europe is not only inevitable but also necessary in order to boost the overall competitiveness of Europe as a location in line with the goals of the Lisbon agenda.
Smaller Cities in Convergence Regions require greater integration into the European economy.
To date, living conditions in many core cities are favorable primarily for younger working-age people.
Since regional and Europe-wide migration processes will be pivotal in determining the future prosperity of cities across Europe, regional and urban policy must aim to support cities in becoming attractive locations for all age groups, household types and lifestyle affiliations.

30. Recommendations concerning the Urban Audit (selection)
2. SoECR – Chapter 4 - Conclusions and recommendations
Recommendations concerning the Urban Audit (selection)
It is necessary to establish whether the Urban Audit should be an instrument with a broad-based application encompassing a larger number and range of user groups, or whether it should function primarily as a database for European policy purposes.
If the aim is to strengthen the Urban Audit database as a reporting tool to also be used by cities, it must be more firmly anchored at the city level. To date, only a few Urban Audit cities use Urban Audit data for city comparison. This was one of the findings of the City Panel Workshop.
With this purpose in mind, data availability and response rates should be improved.

31. Thank you for attention Any comments and questions?
3. Further steps
Comments to the report by DG Regio by the end of October 2009
Final draft in spring 2010
Thank you for attention
Any comments and questions?