1. POL 3162 Introduction to American Politics
PUBLIC OPINION AND THE MEDIA
SHANG E. HA
SOGANG UNIVERSITY

2. Overview APT, Chapter 6 What is public opinion?
Where do opinions come from?
How is public opinion measured?
What are the characteristics of US public opinion?
How does public opinion matter?
How do people use the media to learn about politics?
How does media coverage influence public opinion and policy?

3. Public Opinion on Gun Control

4. Public Opinion on Gun Control
Pictured are teddy bears with the names and ages of the children who were shot and killed at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, CT on December 14th, (20 elementary school students and 4 teachers were killed by a mentally ill shooter.)
In a January 2013 poll
91% of respondents favored criminal background checks for gun sales
73% favored criminal penalties for anyone who sold a gun to someone who had not passed a background check
Why has apparent public support for gun control not resulted in new legislation?

5. What is Public Opinion?
Citizens’ opinions about politics and government actions
Ideally, public opinion should
Motivate public officials
Help explain policy outcomes
However, older scholarship interprets the evidence to conclude that “Americans have no firm beliefs about government and thus can be easily swayed by candidates, media, and interest groups.”

6. Two Types of Opinion
Some opinions are formed early and remain stable throughout a lifetime
Political socialization – the process by which an individual’s political opinions are shaped by other people (e.g., parents) and the surrounding culture
Party identification (like “religious affiliation”)
Political ideology (liberal vs. conservative)
Others are more fluid and vary with events
Various issue positions
Presidential approval

7. Surveying Political Principles SOURCE: Pew Research Center, “Beyond Red vs. Blue”

8. Liberal-Conservative Ideology in America SOURCE: Data from 2008 General Social Survey

9. Liberal–Conservative Ideology in America, 1970– 2010

10. Tracking Events and Public Opinion, 2004–2010 SOURCE: Pew Research Center, “Midterm Election Challenges for Both Parties,” February 12, 2010

11. Approval Ratings for President Obama, 2009-2010

12. Measuring Public Opinion
Survey: a way to measure public opinion by interviewing a large number of people
Population: the group of people that a researcher wants to study
Sample: within a population, the group of people surveyed in order to gauge the whole population’s opinion
Researchers use samples because it would be impossible to interview the entire population
“Representative Sample”: a sample that represents the population reasonably well.

13. Measuring Public Opinion (con’t)
Random sample: a subset of a population chosen to participate in a survey through a selection process in which every member of the population has an equal chance of being chosen.
It makes the sample “representative” of the population
Sampling error: a calculation that describes what percentage of the people surveyed may not accurately represent the population being studied
Increasing the number of respondents lowers the sampling error

14. Sampling Error

15. Various Modes of Survey
Face-to-face interviewing is best, but it is difficult to generate a random sample
Random digit dialing (telephone survey) is useful, but the inability to call cell phone numbers may be a problem
Internet-based polls face criticism and doubts about sample selection
Mailing is usually not recommended because the response rates tend to be too low

16. The Impact of Question Wording on Opinions
In this 2013 survey on the surveillance of phone records and digital metadata by the National Security Agency (NSA), support or opposition to the NSA surveillance changed based on whether the questions mentioned court approval or the terrorist threat and based on the types and source of data.
In light of how the responses to survey questions are shaped by the precise wording of these questions, what sort of question would you ask if your goal was to show that Americans favored increased surveillance? What if you wanted to show high levels of opposition?

17. Question Wording

18. Problems of the Survey
Surveys often ask about complex issues that respondents may not have thought about
Samples may be biased, despite heroic efforts to randomize them
Some people may also be reluctant to say their opinions to an interviewer
Respondents’ opinions may change from day to day
The wording of the questions may distort respondents’ results
The timing of the survey (including events on the day the survey was carried out) can influence responses.
Answers may reflect how familiar people are with the topics of the questions.
All surveys that use a sample of the population can only measure public opinion within a margin of error (sampling error)

19. The Accuracy of Public Opinion
Survey results are most believable when:
The problems with surveys are taken seriously by the survey developer.
Representative sample, response rate, question wording, etc
Multiple surveys confirm the same result.

20. Measuring What a Nation of 300 Million Thinks

21. Surveying the 2012 Elections

22. Politicians and Public Opinion
Politicians, parties, party leaders, interest groups, and religious leaders not only reflect but can also influence our political preferences.
Politicians try to shape opinion rather than pander to it by describing their proposals in language that taps into deeply-held public opinions.
Politicians can fail to persuade the public when they have the wrong issue, the wrong message, or bad communications strategy.

23. News Media in America
Mass Media: Sources that provide information to average citizens on a day-to-day basis.
Examples
Newspapers: New York Time, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, etc
Magazines: Time, Newsweek, The Economist, The New Republic, The Nation, etc
Television: CBS, NBC, ABC, Fox, CNN, etc
Radio
Internet (including blogs, Youtube, Twitter, etc)

24. Media Effects: How Does Media Affect Our Political Perceptions?
Filtering (or Agenda-Setting) – the influence on public opinion that results from journalists’ and editors’ decisions about which of many potential news stories to report
Slant – the imbalance in a story that covers one candidate or policy favorably without providing similar coverage of the other side

25. Media Effect (con’t)
Priming – the influence on the public’s general impressions caused by positive or negative coverage of a candidate or issue
Framing – the influence on public opinion caused by the way a story is presented or covered, including the details, explanations, and context offered in the report

26. Framing Effects

27. Examining Framing Effects (Nelson, Clawson, and Oxley 1997)

28. Measuring Framing Effects

29. Measuring Framing Effects

30. Summary of Nelson, Clawson, and Oxley (1997)
According to the results of the study, the group that heard the “public safety frame” was significantly less tolerant than the group that had the safety concerns omitted.
This shows that media framing—the details that are included and omitted and the way the story is presented—can have a big impact.
Additional research shows that when frames are simple, easy-to-understand, and only one side of the issue is presented are the situations when framing is most powerful.
TV, with its short, simple messages and striking visual imagery, has especially strong framing effects on viewers.

31. Partisanship and News Source Credibility

32. Assessing Media Coverage of American Politics
Hostile media phenomenon – the idea that supporters of a candidate or issue tend to feel that media coverage is biased against their position.
Attack journalism – A type of journalism where “bad news makes for good news,” “the mere whiff of a controversy or scandal is grounds for a story.”
Horse race coverage – The type of election coverage that focuses more on poll results and speculation about a likely winner than on substantive differences between the candidates.

33. Political Apathy
Even if reporters did explain how government works and why debate and compromise are necessary, it is not very likely that citizens would start loving politics and the political process.
Citizens do not like being exposed to uncertainty, debate, bargains, and so forth. An old saying in American politics is “If you want to enjoy sausage or legislation, don’t watch it being made.”
The law-making process can leave many Americans disgusted or frustrated—but just as many are bored or more interested in something else.