Download presentation
Presentation is loading. Please wait.
Published byJason Holmes Modified over 6 years ago
1
One State, Two State, Red State, Blue State: The Regional Outlook
Presented by: Jim Diffley Group Managing Director, US Regional Services Global Insight June 8, 2005
2
4/05 Jobs Update — States Payroll employment up y/y in all but Michigan and South Carolina Revisions showed Ohio positive! Mountain states +3.3%, Pacific 1.9%, Southeast +1.7%; Midwest, New England < 1% NV (6.4%), AZ, UT, OR, FL lead Employment in 32 states back to March 2001 level Unemployment varies from 2.9% in Hawaii to 7.0% in Michigan New methodology BLS now ascribing statistical significance SC very slight, though even MI not New unemployment methodology SOS = US 11/24/2018
3
Employment Growth 2005 – 2010 (average annual growth rate)
11/24/2018
4
Return to Peak Employment
11/24/2018
5
Personal Income Growth 2005 – 2010 (average annual growth )
11/24/2018
6
Real GSP Growth 2005 – 2010 (average annual growth rate)
11/24/2018
7
2004 Population As usual Nevada, Florida, Arizona lead the way
Massachusetts was negative, North Dakota not Surprises? Fast growing NV, FL even faster than expected Laggards ND, PA, LA, MS also slightly faster More resort casinos in Las Vegas- Cosmopolitan to follow Wynn’s retail surge there 11/24/2018
8
Census Projections 88% of expected growth is in Sun Belt GII
Northeast 5.9% Midwest 14.6% South 42.5% West 48.5% US 30.5% Source: US Census Bureau, Population Division, Interim State Population Projections, 2005 11/24/2018
9
Net Migration 2005 – 2010 (thousands)
Electoral College Sun Belt gains , Frost Belt losses 4 electoral votes for 2012 11/24/2018
10
The Bush Years Tax Cuts Defense and Homeland Security Spending
Budget Deficits Trade Deficit High Oil Prices Weak Dollar Low Interest Rates and Baseball to Washington Stem Cell Research to California Frey notes from Census projections (Ohio no longer decisive) 11/24/2018
11
Winners and Losers: Jobs 2000 – 2005
Top Ten Nevada Wyoming Florida Arizona New Mexico Alaska Hawaii Montana Idaho North Dakota Bottom 10 Michigan Ohio Illinois Massachusetts South Carolina North Carolina Connecticut Missouri New York Mississippi 11/24/2018
12
Per Capita Income 2004 (thousands of dollars)
Who benefits from the tax cuts? 11/24/2018
13
State Budgets Oil, Natural Gas, and Commodities Prices
Alaska, Wyoming, New Mexico Wyoming Web site: ‘Oh God, let there be another mineral boom. I promise not to screw it up this time.’ 2005 April surprises Non-wage income gains Surprising capital gains 15% rate? Amnesty surprises WY refers to 80s problems 11/24/2018
14
Military and Security Spending
DOD Prime Contracts (213b US) California Virginia Texas Maryland Connecticut Arizona Florida 11/24/2018
15
BRAC Losers Winners Connecticut Maryland Maine Georgia Alaska Texas
South Dakota Colorado New Jersey Oklahoma Missouri Arkansas Kentucky Kansas New Mexico Alabama Illinois Indiana September 8 – list to Bush 11/24/2018
16
Exports as % of GSP, 2001 11/24/2018
17
Forecast: Housing Starts
11/24/2018
18
Forecast: Top States Housing Starts 2005 Florida 248,000
California ,000 Texas ,000 Georgia ,000 North Carolina ,000 Arizona ,000 11/24/2018
19
Housing Affordability in 2004
11/24/2018
20
Average Household Income Growth 2005 – 2010
11/24/2018
21
Where are the Bubbles? 11/24/2018
Similar presentations
© 2025 SlidePlayer.com. Inc.
All rights reserved.