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THE CHANGING BATTLEGROUND

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Presentation on theme: "THE CHANGING BATTLEGROUND"— Presentation transcript:

1 THE CHANGING BATTLEGROUND

2 Battleground States Battleground states usually defined as states in which the Presidential race is closely contested, in which the winner gets no more than (say) 53% of the two party vote. This definition works well in elections which are expected to be close, e.g., 2000 and 2004. Here I define a battleground states as those whose popular vote split deviates no more than ±3% from the midpoint of the popular vote range in which pivotal state = marginal state. In practice, this is just about the same as the states whose popular vote split deviates no more than ±3% from the national popular vote split.

3 Battleground States (cont.)
It is of interest to identify battleground states over the last several decades and see whether the battleground has expanded or contracted over time; whether the same states tend to have battleground status in election after election; whether battlegrounds tend to be concentrated in particular regions.

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