1. PPR July 2009

2. Figure 1 Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent, quarterly averages
Source: The Riksbank

3. Figure 2. CPI with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

4. Figure 3. GDP with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

5. Figure 4. GDP-growth abroad Annual percentage change
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Sources: IMF and the Riksbank

6. Figure 5. Stock market volatility Per cent
Note: Implicit volatility is estimated on the basis of index-linked option prices.
Source: Reuters EcoWin

7. Figure 6. Swedish companies' net borrowing via bonds denominated in foreign currency SEK, billions
Source: Statistics Sweden

8. Figure 7. GDP for the USA and the euro area Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and the Riksbank

9. Figure 8. Oil price, Brent crude USD per barrel, future price
Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank

10. Figure 9. Distribution of Consensus GDP forecasts for next year Percentage points
Source: Consensus Forecasts

11. Figure 10. TCW-weighted exchange rate Index, 18.11.92 = 100
Source: The Riksbank

12. Figure 11. Development of GDP in different regions and countries Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally adjusted data
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

13. Figure 12. Comparison of recovery following various recessions, GDP Sweden Index in the quarter preceding the beginning of the recession = 100
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

14. Figure 13. GDP Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

15. Figure 14. Households’ disposable incomes, consumption and saving ratio Annual percentage change, fixed prices and percentage of disposable income
Note. Broken lines and striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

16. Figure 15. Swedish exports and export market index for goods Annual percentage change
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

17. Figure 16. Public sector net lending Per cent of GDP
Note. Striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

18. Figure 17. Labour force and number of employed Thousands, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

19. Figure 18. Employment rate Employment as a percentage of the population, year, seasonally-adjusted data
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

20. Figure 19. Unemployed Percentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

21. Figure 20. Actual and trend productivity growth in the economy as a whole Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

22. Figure 21. Estimated gaps Percentage deviation from the HP trend
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

23. Figure 22. Nominal wages Annual percentage change
Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

24. Figure 23. Unit labour costs for the economy as a whole Annual percentage change
Note. Broken lines and striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

25. Figure 24. CPI, CPIF and CPIF excluding energy Annual percentage change
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

26. Figure 25. HICP in the euro area and in Sweden Annual percentage change
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Sources: Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

27. Figure 26. Repo rate Per cent, quarterly averages
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Source: The Riksbank

28. Figure 27. Real repo rate Per cent, quarterly averages
Source: The Riksbank

29. Figure 28. CPI Annual percentage change
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

30. Figure 29. CPIF Annual percentage change
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

31. Figure 29. Repo rate Per cent, quarterly averages
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Source: The Riksbank

32. Figure 31. Labour market gap (hours worked) Percentage deviation from the HP trend
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

33. Figure 32. CPIF Annual percentage change
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

34. Figure 33. Labour costs per hour Annual percentage change
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

35. Figure 34. Repo rate Per cent, quarterly averages
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Source: The Riksbank

36. Figure 35. Labour market gap (hours worked) Percentage deviation from the HP trend
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

37. Figure 36. CPIF Annual percentage change
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

38. Figure 37. GDP abroad TCW-weighted, quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Sources: National sources and the Riksbank

39. Figure 38. Labour market gap (hours worked) Percentage deviation from the HP trend
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

40. Figure 39. Repo rate Per cent, quarterly averages
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Source: The Riksbank

41. Figure 40. CPIF Annual percentage change
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

42. Figure 41. Real repo rate Per cent, quarterly averages
Source: The Riksbank

43. Figure 42. Long term interest rates Per cent
Note. Government bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity.
Source: Reuters EcoWin

44. Figure 43. Difference between interbank rates and government bond rates (TED spread) Basis points
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank

45. Figure 44. Difference between interbank rates and expected monetary policy (Basis-spread) Basis points
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank

46. Figure 45. Monetary policy expectations in the Euro area and the USA Per cent
Sources: Reuters Ecowin and the Riksbank

47. Figure 46. Monetary policy expectations in Sweden according to money market participants Per cent
Sources: Reuters Ecowin, TNS Prospera and the Riksbank

48. Figure 47. Stock market movements Index, 04.01.99 = 100
Source: Reuters EcoWin

49. Figure 48. Short-term interest rates in Sweden Per cent
Sources: Reuters EcoWin, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

50. Figure 49. Long-term mortgage rates in Sweden Per cent
Sources: Reuters EcoWin, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

51. Figure 50. Mortgage spread Basis points
Note. Refers to the difference between mortgage bonds rates and government bond rates, 5 year term.
Source: The Riksbank

52. Figure 51. Housing prices Annual percentage change
Source: Statistics Sweden

53. Figure 52. Lending to Swedish households and non-financial companies Annual percentage change
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

54. Figure 53. International comparison between central banks’ balance sheet totals Index, Januari 2007 = 100
Note. Weekly data until week 26.
Sources: The respective central banks

55. Figure 54. Monetary base Billion SEK
Source: The Riksbank

56. Figure 55. Money Supply Annual percentage change
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

57. Figure 56. Exchange rates SEK per Euro and dollar
Source: Reuters EcoWin

58. Figure 57. The spread between German government bonds and bonds issued by various countries Percentage points
Note: Government bonds with approximately ten years left to maturity.
Source: Reuters EcoWin

59. Figure 58. World Trade Monitor Index Index 2000 = 100, seasonally adjusted data
Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

60. Figure 59. Transport costs indicator (Baltic Dry Index) Index, 1985 = 100
Note. The Baltic Dry Index measures the price of transporting commodities by sea.
Source: Reuters EcoWin

61. Figure 60. Exports in Asia Index January 2007 = 100, USD current prices
Sources: National sources

62. Figure 61. Industrial production in Asia Annual percentage change
Sources: National sources

63. Figure 62. Employment and private consumption in the United States Annual percentage change
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and US Department of Commerce

64. Figure 63. Consumer confidence in the USA, (University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index) Index, December 1964 = 100
Source: University of Michigan

65. Figure 64. GDP Annual percentage change
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and OECD

66. Figure 65. Purchasing managers’ index in the euro area Index, seasonally adjusted data
Note. An index over 50 means growth, below 50 means a decline.
Source: Markit Economics

67. Figure 66. Industrial production Annual percentage change
Sources: Eurostat, Federal Reserve and OECD

68. Figure 67. Capacity utilisation in the manufacturing industry in the euro area Per cent
Source: European Commission

69. Figure 68. Purchasing managers’ index in the manufacturing industry in United Kingdom, Norway and Denmark Index, seasonally adjusted data
Note. An index over 50 means growth, below 50 means a decline.
Sources: DILF, Markit Economics and NIMA

70. Figure 69. Commodity prices USD, Index, 2000 = 100
Source: The Economist

71. Figure 70. Consumer prices Annual percentage change
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat and OECD

72. Figure 71. CPI excluding energy and food Annual percentage change
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat and OECD

73. Figure 72. The Economic Tendency Indicator Index, mean = 100
Source: National Institute of Economic Research

74. Figure 73. Confidence indicators in the business sector Seasonally adjusted net figures
Source: National Institute of Economic Research

75. Figure 74. Purchasing managers’ index in the manufacturing industry Index, seasonally adjusted data
Note. An index over 50 means growth, below 50 means a decline.
Source: Swedbank

76. Figure 75. Retail sales and household consumption Annual percentage change
Note. Non-calender-adjusted data
Source: Statistics Sweden

77. Figure 76. Disposable income and savings Annual percentage change and per cent of disposable income
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

78. Figure 77. Households confidence indicators Net figures
Source: National Institute of Economic Research

79. Figure 78. Government consumption Annual percentage change
Source: Statistics Sweden

80. Figure 79. Gross fixed capital formation Annual percentage change
Source: Statistics Sweden

81. Figure 80. Foreign trade with goods in fixed prices Three-month changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally adjusted data
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Three-month moving averages.

82. Figure 81. New export orders Net figures and annual percentage change
Note. Data before 2000 is spliced by the Riksbank.
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

83. Figure 82. Employment rate, labour force and unemployment Thousands, years and per cent of the labour force, seasonally adjusted data
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

84. Figure 83. New and unfilled vacant jobs and redundancy notices Thousands, seasonally adjusted data
Sources: Employment service and the Riksbank

85. Figure 84. Proportion of firms reporting a shortage of labour Per cent, seasonally adjusted data
Source: National Institute of Economic Research

86. Figure 85. Employees in the business sector according to the Economic Tendency Survey Net figures, seasonally adjusted data
Source: National Institute of Economic Research

87. Figure 86. Capital utilization in industry Per cent, seasonally adjusted data
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden

88. Figure 87. Wages Annual percentage change
Note. Preliminary outcomes for last 12 months, which are usually revised upwards.
Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

89. Figure 88. Wages in the business sector Annual percentage change
Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

90. Figure 89. Expectations of inflation one year ahead Annual percentage change
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and TNS Prospera

91. Figure 90. Inflation expectations one, two and five years ahead Annual percentage change
Note. Refers to all respondents.
Source: TNS Prospera

92. Figure 91. The difference between nominal and real five-year rates (break-even inflation) Percentage points
Source: The Riksbank

93. Figure 92. Prices of goods and services in the CPI Annual percentage change
Note: The weight of CPI of the respective components is given in brackets.
Source: Statistics Sweden

94. Figure 93. Harmonized index for consumer prices (HICP) Annual percentage change
Sources: Eurostat and Statistics Sweden

95. Figure B1. Global imbalances Current accounts as per cent of World GDP
Note. Growth economies includes China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand.
Source: IMF

96. Figure B2. Current account in Sweden Per cent of GDP
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

97. Figure B3. Savings and net worth in the USA Per cent of disposable income
Sources: Federal Reserve and U. S. Department of Commerce

98. Table A1. Repo rate forecast Per cent, quarterly average values
Source: The Riksbank

99. Table A2. Inflation, annual average Annual percentage change
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

100. Table A3. Inflation, 12-month average Annual percentage change
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

101. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A4. Summary of financial forecasts, annual average Per cent, unless otherwise specified
* Per cent of GDP
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

102. Sources: IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, OECD and the Riksbank
Table A5. International conditions Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified
Sources: IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, OECD and the Riksbank

103. Table A6. GDP by expenditure Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified
*Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

104. Table A7. Production and employment
Table A7. Production and employment Annual percentage change, unless otherwise stated
* Per cent of labour force
Source: Employment Service, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

105. *contribution to the increase in labour costs, percentage change
Table A8. Wages and unit labour costs for the economy as a whole Annual percentage change, unless otherwise stated
*contribution to the increase in labour costs, percentage change

106. Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A9. Scenario with higher repo rate Annual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, calendar-adjusted data
Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

107. Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A10. Scenario with lower repo rate Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified
Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

108. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A11. Scenario with weaker wage development Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

109. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A12. Scenario with more rapid international recovery Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank