1. Using Linked Administrative Data to Examine the Impact of the Seizure and Investigation of Illegal Drug Consignments on Local Communities
Ben Matthews1
Chris Dibben1
Susan McVie1
Stuart Weatherley2
1 University of Edinburgh
2 National Crime Agency

2. Project Background
Illegal Drug Consignments | Matthews et al. | 14/09/17

3. Project Background
Illegal Drug Consignments | Matthews et al. | 14/09/17

4. Identified somewhere like this
Royal Mail international hub, Heathrow (England), picture from
Illegal Drug Consignments | Matthews et al. | 14/09/17

5. Project Background
Distribution from cryptomarkets often relies on postal delivery (Mounteney et al. 2016:13)
Cryptomarkets are intertwined with commercial and social supply chains (Barratt 2016, Aldridge and Décary-Hétu 2014)
Illegal Drug Consignments | Matthews et al. | 14/09/17

6. Research Questions
Are drug parcel seizures and controlled parcel deliveries associated with lower prevalence of recent drug use, medical admissions and deaths among the drug using population within local communities?
Are drug parcel seizures and controlled parcel deliveries associated with a reduction in the numbers of crimes in local communities for drug offences, crimes of dishonesty and non-sexual crimes of violence?
Illegal Drug Consignments | Matthews et al. | 14/09/17

7. Research Design: Data Linkage
NCA Illegal Consignments Dataset: seizures and controlled deliveries
Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2016 (SIMD): datazone characteristics
Police Scotland: local area crime rates
NHS Scotland: drugs-related hospital admissions and mortality, mortality amongst registered drug using population
Data aggregated to datazone level, outcome as count per day
Illegal Drug Consignments | Matthews et al. | 14/09/17

8. Research Design: Data Linkage
NCA Illegal Consignments Dataset: seizures and controlled deliveries
Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2016 (SIMD): datazone characteristics
Police Scotland: local area crime rates
NHS Scotland: drugs-related hospital admissions and mortality, mortality amongst registered drug using population
Data aggregated to datazone level, outcome as count per day
Illegal Drug Consignments | Matthews et al. | 14/09/17

9. Descriptive Results
Illegal Drug Consignments | Matthews et al. | 14/09/17

10. NCA Dataset: Overview (1/2)
Table One: Key properties of NCA Dataset
N cases
1374
Period covered to
N datazones
979
Consignments adopted
346 (0.25%)
Consignments seized
1028 (0.75%)
Commodities included
Amphetamines, Benzodiazepines, Cannabinoids, Cathinones, Cocaine, GBL, Hallucinogens, Other, Ketamine, Khat, MDMA, Mephedrone, Methamphetamine, NPS, Opioids, Steroids, Suspected Cutting Agent (Note that packages containing Heroin, PCP and Methylphenidate are included as ‘other’ commodities in this report due to the small numbers of consignments identified containing these substances)
Source: NCA consignments dataset.
Illegal Drug Consignments | Matthews et al. | 14/09/17

11. NCA Dataset: Overview (2/2)
Figure Two: Number of consignments identified of different commodities
Illegal Drug Consignments | Matthews et al. | 14/09/17

12. Quantity of commodities
Category four:
Row N = 343
Category three, two or one:
Row N = 44
Commodity not covered by guidelines: Row N = 830
Below sentencing threshold (density plots not shown):
N = 157
Figure Two: Density plot of consignment size by commodity and tactic employed
Illegal Drug Consignments | Matthews et al. | 14/09/17

13. Characteristics of places with consignments identified
Figure Three: Average SIMD domains for datazones with no consignments, seized consignments only or at least one controlled delivery
Illegal Drug Consignments | Matthews et al. | 14/09/17

14. Next steps and questions raised
Further analysis of area characteristics
Modelling: within and between datazone comparisons
How large an effect on health outcomes and crime rates should we anticipate from these consignments?
Illegal Drug Consignments | Matthews et al. | 14/09/17

15. Thank you
References
Aldridge, Judith, and David Décary-Hétu ‘Not an “Ebay for Drugs”: The Cryptomarket “Silk Road” as a Paradigm Shifting Criminal Innovation’.
Barratt, Monica J ‘Everything You Always Wanted to Know about Drug Cryptomarkets* (*but Were Afraid to Ask)’. International Journal of Drug Policy 35 (September):1–6.
Mounteney, Jane, Alberto Oteo, and Paul Griffiths ‘The Internet and Drug Markets: Shining a Light on These Complex and Dynamic Systems’. In European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction. Insights 21. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union.

16. Any questions? Contact ADRC-Scotland: @adrc_scotland
Me:
@benmatthewsed

17. NCA Dataset: Temporal trends
Table Two: Number of consignments per year
Year
Number of consignments
2011 91
2012
214
2013
349
2014
384
2015
336
Total
1374
Source: NCA consignments dataset.
Figure One: Consignments adopted per year
Illegal Drug Consignments | Matthews et al. | 14/09/17