2. Part 2: Country studies Monitoring the MDGs
A catalogue of procedures and an assessment of statistical capacity
Part 2: Country studies
It is important to emphasize that this part of the study is still in a very provisional shape because country visits have not been carried out yet
Only desk study

3. Study objective:
Assess the capability of two selected developing countries, Pakistan and Malawi, to monitor the MDG and Poverty Reduction Strategy developmental objectives
Determine the level of symmetry between the MDGs (internationally determined development aims) and the PRSP objectives (relating to domestic programme of development and poverty reduction).

4. Three areas of analysis:
Comparison between national and international data on MDG indicators
Comparison of MDG and PRSP indicators
Assessment of capability via…:
current status of education and health MIS
quality/institutionalisation of existing household surveys
In this phase of the study the objective has been addressed looking at three broad areas:
1) To see whether there exist any discrepancy, but also to assess the data coverage and timeliness in these two countries
2) To see the level of overlap (how much international concern is reflected in the national ones
3) This area is particularly preliminary

5. Comparison of national and international data on MDG indicators:
Shortcomings for both countries – esp. timeliness
Clear discrepancies for education indicators, and for access to water between national and international data for both countries, but…
Reasonable similarity between international and national data for other indicators
Coming to the first area, Comparison of … , what emerges is that
There are several shortcomings …

6. Indicator National International Pakistan Malawi 42% (2001)
NER
42% (2001)
66% ( )
Ratio female to male NER in primary
0.83 (2001)
0.6 (2001)
Survival ratio (% from class 1 to 5)
92% (2001) NA
Access to water in rural areas
77% (1999)
87% (2000)
Malawi
72% (2000)
101% ( )
79% (2000)
49% ( )
61% (2000)
44% (2000)
Issue about the NER in Pakistan:
UIS received an estimate of enrolment from the Ministry of education, and UIS thinks that this comprises enrolment of children aged 4 to 9 excluding Katchi class (a sort of nursery class)
The Ministry of Education believes that UIS estimates are higher because they included katchi class
The two are clearly not in control of what is happening. EMIS only for public schools (private about 30% of enrolment), huge problems with age and sex. MoE must have made some educated guess, but there was a clear misunderstanding between UIS and MoE.
Analysis of household survey data shows that even including katchi class or choosing a different age group 6-10 instead of 5-9 does not produce such a big difference as that between national and international estimates
This difference also appear in one very important gender indicator.
While the survival ratio was calculated through the PIHS, this indicator is not available in the international data
Difference in the access to water in rural areas is a difference in the definition (internationally protected wells are considered improved sources, but excluded from national) and this difference affects mainly the rural estimates.
Malawi
There are different factors that explain these differences:
The peculiarity of the primary education in Malawi, which is called basic education and is made of 8 classes, while the mapping of this system in the ISCED considers only the first 6 years of education.
2) But the problem is also related to some differences in the population estimates and the quality of EMIS data

7. Enrolment and population estimates in Malawi
Population 5-9 was 1.44 in 2000 (NSO)
Population 5-9 was 1.68 in 2000 (UN statistics division)
In 2000 children 6-10 enrolled in primary school were 1.78 (EMIS)
NER of children 6-11 was 101 in (UIS)
NER of children 6-10 was 72 in 2000 (MDHS)
This points to an overestimation of EMIS data

8. Comparison of indicators that monitor MDG
versus those that monitor the PRSP
Malawi:
Large number of country specific indicators (agriculture) that have no correspondence with the MDG indicators
Absence of HIV/AIDS and malaria impact indicators
Similarities in child and maternal health, poverty, and some education variables
However, some poor quality indicators: Female enrolment as % of total enrolment, Literacy for individuals over 5 years
Pakistan:
Broad similarities in education, but differences in health indicators (I-PRSP emphasis is on health infrastructure)
Differences in definition of access to safe/improved water sources
In I-PRSP no malnutrition indicator, but it will be considered for the PRSP
Pakistan:
However, data on malnutrition are particularly old in Pakistan (1995), though malnutrition is quite high, and this is definitely an area that needs more attention
Malawi:
Although the PRSP says that HIV/AIDS is one of the problem that can have serious consequences on poverty, it fails to define specific impact indicators, and there are not indicators in the list of selected indicators.
For both Pakistan and Malawi there could be special benefits from the adoption of some MDG indicators, at least in those areas that the PRSP identify as important, but that are not monitor appropriately.

9. Statistical capacity to monitor PRSP and MDG
Pakistan:
HMIS: delays in the flow of information from districts to higher levels; poor facilities to process and analyse reports
EMIS: poor quality of data (only public schools, problems in recording sex and age)
New challenges in household survey administration
More need for evidence to inform policy decisions
Malawi:
HMIS: Problems in timely reporting
EMIS: Inflated data
More dependent on external help in administering household surveys
Need to develop a “culture” of producing and providing information as a routine
Pakistan
There are talks on need of providing district data, the introduction of a CWIQ of more than households replacing the PIHS etc.
Malawi
Echoes from our correspondence pointed out there is need…

10. Further issues
Analysis of interaction between national authorities and international agencies
Examine the level of donors’ cooperation/coordination in recent efforts of capacity building
Exploring obstacles and benefits of harmonisation between MDG and PRSP indicators
Reviewing methodologies and definitions used by most recent surveys conducted in the country (CWIQ, WHS, DHS EdData)
Closer assessment of management information systems and vertical programs
Need to plan country visits