1. House, Senate, & Gubernatorial Races
2018 Midterm Elections
House, Senate, & Gubernatorial Races
Make slides simpler
Need a more introductory slide about # of seats in play

2. Special Elections

3. Special Election Summary 10 special elections 2 changes of party
Both from Republican to Democratic representatives
Connor Lamb won Tim Murphy’s seat
Doug Jones won Jeff Sessions’ seat
Special Election
Summary
This is good enough
Who are the big changes
House and senate

4. The President’s Impact

5. Trump’s Approval Rating
January 2017: 45%
January 2018: 37.25%
July 2018: 41.5%
September 2018: 41%
Gallup
Maga and protesters
Too much information
January
Which year
What the rating was when he came in
Compare this to other presidents
One slide-trump’s approval jan 2016, 2017, 2018 and now
For some group of presidents
What their highest and lowest approval ratings were

6. Trump’s Approval Rating
Disapprove vs Approve
FiveThirtyEight:
53.8% % %
Real Clear Politics:
54.4% % %

7. Generic Congressional Vote
Real Clear Politics:
Democratic Republican
48.5% %

8. What it will be about? The President
The year of the angry white college educated suburban women
Intensely Republicans vs Democrats

9. Republicans want it to be about the economy/tax cuts and low unemployment
Democrats want it to be about the President and the need for check on his unbridled power

10. Key Issues Trump Immigration/the wall Deregulation
Judge Kavanaugh/ Judge Gorsuch: The Role of Courts
Trade
Taxes
Key Issues
Republicans
Two lists-d and r

11. Key Issues Trump Healthcare
Judge Kavanaugh/Judge Gorsuch: The role of Courts Role of Courts
Immigration/The wall
Tax fairness
Infrastructure
Education
Environment
Key Issues
Democrats

12. Realignment of the Parties

13. Republicans
Used to be the Party of Highly Educated, Rich, Rural and Southern Americans Especially White Suburban Women
Supported small government and free trade
Balanced Budgets

14. Trump’s Party is Now Made up Overwhelmingly of:
Less Educated Working Class Whites
Especially White Men
But Whites are now Only 66% of Turnout vs. 88% in 1988

15. The Affluent
White Men Especially in Rural South and the Plains States
Protection on trade
Deficits of 1 Trillion or more
Geography:
Rust Belt States of Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, & Wisconsin, the South, Plains States

16. Democrats
Used to be:
The Party of Unionized White Working Class, as Well as Minorities and the Intelligentsia
Now:
Democrats Largely Dependent Upon Educated White Women, Upper Middle Class, Under 30, and Minorities

17. Geography Overwhelmingly:
California, Oregon, Washington, New York, New Jersey, New England, Illinois, Delaware, and Maryland, and New Mexico
Increasing in States:
Colorado, Nevada, Virginia

18. Major Inroads:
Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Texas
Toss Ups:
Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin

19. Federal Level Elections

20. Senate

21. Democrats Would Need to Net 2 Seats to Win Majority
Senate Breakdown
Democrats Would Need to Net 2 Seats to Win Majority

22. Current Senate Breakdown
Democrats: 49 Seats
Republicans: 51 Seats
51 Seats Needed for Majority
Democrats Would Need to Net 2 Seats to Win Majority
Current Senate Breakdown
No pictures

23. Senate Seats in Play Safe Democrat: 14 Likely Democrat: 3
Leans Democrat: 4
Toss up: 9
Leans Republican: 0
Likely Republican: 1
Safe Republican: 4
35 Senate Seats
26 D/ 9 R
Real Clear Politics
Senate Seats in Play

24. Real Clear Politics 2018 Senate Toss up Elections
FL: Nelson (D) Scott (R)
IN: Donnelly (D) Braun (R)
MO: McCaskill (D) Hawley (R)
MT: Tester (D) Rosendale (R)
ND: Heitkamp (D) Cramer (R)
O AZ: McSally(R) Sinema (D)
NV: Heller (R) Rosen (D)
O TN: Blackburn (R) Bredesen (D)
TX: Cruz (R) O’Rourke (D)

25. Real Clear Politics Senate RCP Averages
Missouri
Hawley (R) +0.6
Tennessee
Bredesen (D) +1.6
Florida
Scott (R) +1.7
Montana
Tester (D) +5.5
North Dakota
Cramer (R) +0.5
Nevada
Rosen (D) +0.6
Arizona
Sinema (D) +5.4
Texas
Cruz (R) +4.4
West Virginia
Manchin (D) +8.4
Wisconsin
Baldwin (D) +8.0
Minnesota
Smith (D) +8.4
New Jersey
Menendez (D) +8.3

26. Cook Political Report vs
Cook Political Report vs. Real Clear Politics 2018 Senate Toss up Elections
Likely to Lean
OH: Brown (D)
Toss Up to Likely
MT: Tester (D)
5D Toss Up
FL: Nelson (D)
IN: Donnelly (D)
MO: McCaskill (D)
ND: Heitkamp (D)
WV: Manchin (D)
3R Toss Up
AZ: McSally (R) vs Sinema (D)
NV: Heller (R)
TN: Blackburn (R) vs Bredesen (D)
Likely R TX

27. Sabato’s Crystal Ball 2018 Senate Toss up Elections
TX Likely R
WV Leans D
TN Leans R

28. Current Senate Leadership
Majority Leader: Mitch McConnell (KY)
Majority Whip: John Cornyn (TX)
Commerce Chairman: John Thune (SD)

29. What a Democratic Senate Would Look Like
Majority Leader: Chuck Schumer (NY)
Majority Whip: Dick Durbin (IL)
Commerce Chairman: Bill Nelson (FL)/ Maria Cantwell (WA)/ Amy Klobuchar (MN)
Two separate slides
Energy commerce and senate commerce
For each one also add current leadership

30. House of Representatives

31. Democrats Would Need to Net 23 Seats to Win Majority
House Breakdown
Democrats Would Need to Net 23 Seats to Win Majority
Two separate slides

32. Current House Breakdown
Democrats: 193 Seats
Republicans: 235 Seats
Vacancies: 7 Seats
218 Seats are Needed for Majority
Democrats Would Need to Net 23 Seats to Win Majority
No pictures

33. Republicans In Trouble In The House
63 Republican seats without an Incumbent
One in Six Republican Seats in The House
Democrats Have Raised More Money in 71 of 101 Districts
Two/Thirds of These Districts are Republican Districts

34. Outside Money Requires a Spend of Two to Three Times That of a Candidate
Reduced Rates for Candidates
Too Many Fires to Put Out
Trump Can’t be Everywhere

35. Real Clear Politics 98 Seats in Play
Likely D Lean D Toss Ups Lean R Likely R
4R/10D R/8D D/41R D/16R D/11R

36. Charlie Cook 103 Seats in Play
Likely D Lean D Toss Ups Lean R Likely R
8D/3R 2D/7R D/28R R 1D/25R

37. Larry Sabato 119 Seats in Play
Likely D Lean D Toss Ups Lean R Likely R
10D/2R 13D/9R 29D/2R 19R R

38. 76 Republicans/10 Democrats
Roll Call
86 Seats in Play
76 Republicans/10 Democrats

39. State Breakdown - Seats in Play
California
Florida
State Breakdown - Seats in Play
Aggregate
CA, PA, IL, FL, MN, VA
Toss up are one thing
Now going to look at seats in play
Four or five or six top seats
Or do them all and he can delete them

40. Real Clear Politics Toss Ups
2 in New York
OH1
3 in Pennsylvania
3 in Texas
UT4
2 in Virginia
WA8
WI1
WV3
2 in Minnesota
5 in California
CO6
FL26
2 in Iowa
2 in Illinois
2 in Kansas
KY6
2 in Michigan

41. Current House Leadership
Speaker: Paul Ryan (WI)
House Majority Leader: Kevin McCarthy (CA)
Energy & Commerce Chairman: Greg Walden (OR)

42. What a Democratic House Would Look Like
Speaker:  Nancy Pelosi (CA-12) ??? House Majority Leader:  Steny Hoyer (MD-5) ??? Ways & Means Chairman: Frank Pallone, Jr. (NJ-6)

43. Gubernatorial Races Tennessee State House Ohio State House
Pictures who are these people-captions
Ohio State House

44. Current Governors
Democrats Independent Republicans

45. 38 Governors Up Democratic Leans D Toss Ups Leans R 3 Likely
CT CO AK IA
IL+ ME AZ OH PA MI FL TN
3 Safe MN GA
CA NM KS
HI OR NV
NY RI OH WI

46. Real Clear Politics: 2018 Gubernatorial Toss up Elections
AL: Walker (I) Dunleavy (R) Begich (D)
AZ: Ducey (R) Garcia (D) +
FL: Desantis (R) Gillum (D) +
GA: Kemp (R) Abrams (D) Tie
NV: Laxalt (R) Sisolak (D) +
OH: Dewine (R) Cordray (D) +
TN: Lee (R) Dean (D)
WI: Walker (R) Evers (D)

47. Real Clear Politics Gubernatorial RCP Averages
Kansas
Kelly (D) +1.0
Ohio
Cordray (D) +1.6
Nevada
Sisolak (D) +1.0
Arizona
Garcia (D) +1.0
Georgia
Abrams (D) Tie
Florida
Gillum (D) +2.5
Wisconsin
Evers (D) +3.5

48. Cook Political Report: 2018 Gubernatorial Toss up Elections
FL: Open (R)
IA: Reynolds (R)
ME: Open (R)
MI: Open (R)
NV: Open (R)
OH: Open (R)
MN: Open (D)
CT: Open (D)
AK: Walker (I)

49. Sabato’s Crystal Ball: 2018 Gubernatorial Toss up Elections
AK: Walker (I)
CO: Open (D)
CT: Open (D)
MN: Open (D)
FL: Open (R)
IA: Reynolds (R)
MI:Open (R)
NV: Open (R)
OH: Open (R)