1. Educational Attainment and Economic Prosperity
Educational Attainment & Economic Prosperity
November 14, 2018

2. Agenda State Goals & Trends Benefits of Postsecondary Attainment
Demographic Trends
Understanding the Need and Impact of Attainment
Reaching the Goal
Benefits of Postsecondary Attainment
Economic
Societal Benefits

3. State Postsecondary Goals & DEMOGRAPHIC Trends

4. Goals
The Virginia Plan for Higher Education: Be the best-educated state by 2030
70 percent of adults with high quality credential or degree, 1.5 million awards
What are the goals/priorities?
Access/affordability
Student success and completion
Traditionally underserved populations
Innovation and efficiency
Workforce needs/economic development/Research

5. Virginia’s goal to be best-educated state

6. Overall population change is increasing about the same as the national average, but there are differences across age, racial/ethnic groups, and regions
Source: American Community Survey Data, 2016

7. While younger aged Virginians make up the largest proportion of total residents, seniors and older workers represent fastest growing population

8. And Hispanic residents represent the fastest growing demographic population
Source: American Community Survey Data, 2016

9. While Virginia is among the top 10 States in levels of attainment…

10. …Within these total figures, there are stark differences in educational attainment among different populations. Virginia’s Black, Hispanic and Native American populations are on average ~20 points behind the White majority population.

11. There are also significant regional disparities across the state
Falls Church City 84.5%
Sussex – 12.1%
Listing by locality provided in appendix
Source: Lumina Foundation
Source: Lumina Foundation

12. There are differences in the rates of working age populations with some college, but no degree by race.

13. BENEFITS OF POSTSECONDARY ATTAINMENT

14. Economic Impact
Educational attainment data are a key component to many state rankings (Best State for Business, Best State to Live and Raise a Family)
A one point increase in the percentage of postsecondary educated people lifts their wages 1.5%, and the earning of other citizens by 1.1%
A one point increase in the percentage of people with post-secondary degrees and credentials increases overall economic growth over ten years by one–half percentage point

15. Individuals with postsecondary credentials typically earn higher income and are more likely to be employed
Source: American Community Survey Data, 2016

16. Attainment Impacts Income
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT AND PERSONAL INCOME, BY VIRGINIA REGION,
Percentage of Population with a Bachelor’s
Degree or Better
11.1% to 15%
15.1% to 20%
20.1% to 25%
25.1% to 30%
30.1% to 35%
35% or higher
Northern
$65,296
Eastern
$40,781
Valley
$38,056
Central
$48,044
West Central
$37,808
Southwest
$32,561
Southside
$32,160
Hampton Roads
$44,790
Prepared by the Council on Virginia’s Future, 2017, Using the nine cultural regions designated for its work.
15 15

17. Societal Benefits
Notes: Public Assistance = any public assistance in past 22 months Supplementary Security Income = Social Security for those with  disabilities preventing them from working, and their dependents in  past 22 months
Source: American Community Survey Data, 2016

18. Benefits to the Commonwealth
Source: It’s Not Just the Money, Lumina Foundation

19. Benefit to Individuals & Communities
Individuals with an associate degree or higher are…..
38% more likely to have health benefits
79% more likely to volunteer
30% more likely to vote in an election
…than individuals with a high school diploma
Source: It’s Not Just the Money, Lumina Foundation

20. Reaching the Goal

21. By 2020, 67% of jobs in Virginia will require postsecondary education
Source: Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce, Projections of Jobs through 2020,

22. Virginia Compared to the Nation and Other States
Virginia’s educational attainment rate ranks 6th in the nation for working-aged adults
Virginia is at 51%
However, Virginia’s educational attainment rate ranks 11th for its younger population (ages 25 – 34)
Note: Certificate and credential data based on estimates developed by Georgetown Center on Education and Workforce
Source: Lumina Foundation

23. Younger Cohort Falling Behind Global Competition: Where We Are Now
Massachusetts
Maryland
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10% 0%
80%
Educational Attainment (Bachelor’s and Above) of Virginia and Key Competitors, 2015
Ages 25 to 34 Ages 25 to 64
Virginia
Korea Canada Japan UK France US
SOURCE: Country Data - Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Education at a Glance, 2016/ State Data – SCHEV staff analysis of US Census and Lumina foundation data
NOTE: State data represents 2014 while country data shows 2015 data. 6
Prepared by the Council on Virginia’s Future, 2017

24. Virginia’s Educational Attainment
Virginia’s Educational Attainment by Age Group
Graduate or professional degree
Bachelor’s
Associate
Some college
Virginia’s Educational Attainment
Rates by Age and Type
Educational attainment rates vary by age.
35-44 year olds have the highest percentage of postsecondary degrees.
This could shift in the coming years as more individuals ages earn a degree.
Source: American Community Survey, year Estimates, B15001.

25. Number of High School Graduates is Relatively Flat
Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, knocking.wiche.edu
* Total is the sum of Public School graduations and does not include Private School graduations, which data was not available in a disaggregated form. A table that includes Private School totals is included in the appendix. The Public Schools Total will not exactly equal the sum of the races/ethnicities columns, which are projected separately. Academic Year refers to the K-12 calendar running fall to spring and may include graduates from any point in that school year, including the summer after the year end.

26. Of 100 high school graduates in VA . . .
72 students in 2015 enrolled within 16 months at a:
4-year public,
4-year private, or
2-year institution
Little change in the percentage of HS graduates enrolling
Enrollment in postsecondary remained between 71-72% from 2008 to 2015
Source: Virginia Department of Education. Postsecondary enrollment report

27. Percentage of 2015 HS Graduates Going to College
Source: Virginia Department of Education. Postsecondary enrollment report

28. School Divisions w/ Lowest Percent of HS Graduates Enrolled in College
Total Students
Number Enrolled
Percent Enrolled
King and Queen County 39 15
38%
Page County
263
110
42%
Westmoreland County 97 42
43%
Caroline County
229
102
45%
Charles City County 49 25
51%
Petersburg City
172 89
52%
Staunton City
171
Appomattox County
167 87
Amelia County
125 66
53%
Richmond City
990
530
54%
Total Number of Lowest = 1,155

29. School Divisions w/ Greatest Number of HS Graduates Attending College
Total Students
Number Enrolled
Percent Enrolled
Fairfax County
12,048
10,111
84%
Prince William County
5,338
4,052
76%
Loudoun County
4,458
3,825
86%
Virginia Beach City
4,546
3,313
73%
Chesterfield County
4,165
2,984
72%
Henrico County
3,125
2,246
Chesapeake City
2,767
2,106
Stafford County
2,102
1,526
Spotsylvania County
1,620
1,053
65%
Arlington County
1,247
1,026
82%
Total of top 10 = 32,242

30. HS Graduate College Enrollment
Trends by Race
White/
2 or more races
Black
Hispanic
Hispanic
Source: Virginia Department of Education. Postsecondary enrollment report

31. Where Did 2015 HS Graduates Go to College?
Percent of Graduates Enrolling by Institution Type
4-year public
4-year private
2-year
Source: Virginia Department of Education. Postsecondary enrollment report

32. Pell Undergraduate Enrollment Distribution 2016-17
Source: All students

33. Pell Undergraduate Enrollment Trends
Percent of Total Enrollments by Institution Type
Public 2-year
Public 4-year
Source:

34. Virginia Plan Measure: Success
Target: Annually improve completion rates that close the gap between underrepresented populations and traditional students by 2030
Underrepresented populations
Non-underrepresented populations
Completion/Success Index for Public Institutions
Note: Underrepresented populations include those who are minority race/ethnicity, students ages 25 and older, low-income or from areas of the state in the lowest quintile for postsecondary attainment. Completion is measured by the student success index which includes students who graduate or remain enrolled at any Virginia institution within the measurement timeframe. The Student Success index is a broader measure than traditional graduation rates as it includes all students, including full-time, part-time, transfer and first-time in college students. In addition, success is counted by students who either graduate at their institution or another institution or remain enrolled after the measurement period.
Source: for 4-year/ for 2-year within 100% time frame

35. Success Index Public 4-Year (Normal time)

36. Success Index Public 2-Year (Normal time)

37. 6-year graduation rates by income are improving, but gaps remain largely the same
Source:

38. Attainment Rates in Rural Virginia
Educational attainment in the Commonwealth’s “rural horseshoe” lags the remainder of the state
If the rural horseshoe were its own state of nearly 2.1 million residents, it would be tied with Arkansas at 50th and ranked between Mississippi and West Virginia with only 19% of its residents holding a bachelor’s degree or higher – and 19% of adults fail to graduate high school
Nearly 1 in 3 adults are not in the workforce in Southside and Southwest Virginia
Source: Virginia Community Colleges, Rural Virginia Horseshoe Initiative

39. Individuals with Credits Earned and No Degree at a VA Public or Private, Nonprofit Institution
Total Individuals
Earning wages less than $44k
0-10 credits
318,808
257,315
11-29 credits
180,752
152,302
30-59 credits
101,861
87,643
60-89 credits
33,450
31,696
90+
13,039
12,301
Total Credits
647,910
541,257
Source: SCHEV research
Notes:
Credits--Virginians Enrolled in Public and Nonprofit Private Colleges between and who Passed at Least One Class with a "D" or Better.
Earnings—Earnings are based on years 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, or 2015

40. Virginia Plan Measure: Awards
Target: Grant 1.5 million undergraduate degrees and workforce credentials by 2030, including those that close the gap in unfilled jobs
Actual and Projected Cumulative Awards to reach 1.5 million Target by 2030
Projections
Actuals
Source: Commonwealth Degree, Certificate Completion Scorecard

41. Strategy Labs
StrategyLabs.LuminaFoundation.org

42. Virginia Attainment Rates by County and Independent City
Source: Lumina Foundation

43. Virginia Attainment Rates by County and Independent City
In NCHEMS data from the 2000 Census, Virginia had the widest gap between counties (not cities), which was 61.2%.  Not only was it the widest, it far exceeded most others.  The second widest was in New Mexico, at 57.6%; but then the gap sizes dropped off significantly -- i.e., the third widest was 48.6% (Texas), with the number dropping slowly to the 14.0% (the narrowest gap) in Delaware.   Lumina’s 2017 Stronger Nation Report indicates the data remains very similar (this analysis includes cities and counties):  Virginia gap = 71.4 ( ); New Mexico still appears to be second = 57.5 ( ) and Texas comes in third = 53.7 ( )  Lowest is Delaware = 11.0 ( ) but they are very small and homogeneous.
Source: Lumina Foundation

44. Virginia High School Graduations
Source:

45. Virginia High School Graduations. 
Source: