1. The Netherlands and IIASA Highlights (2008-2015)

2. CONTENTS Netherlands and IIASA objectives Summary
National Member Organization
Some Leading Dutch Personalities Associated with IIASA
Research Partners
Research Collaborations: Selected Highlights
Capacity Building
Further Information

3. NWO STRATEGY 2015-2018 Priority area 1
Collaboration within the sciences
“Competition and the development of individual talent are important principles in the current NWO policy. In the coming years, NWO will in addition place more emphasis on promoting collaboration within science. Collaboration contributes to mutual inspiration, novel perspectives and to the robustness of research. Collaboration will be encouraged at all levels by means of programming and funding: within research groups, between scientists from various disciplines, research institutes and across national borders.”

4. IIASA
An international research institute that conducts multidisciplinary research to help policymakers find long-term solutions to global challenges facing countries

5. SUMMARY (2008-2015) National Member Organization
Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO)
Membership start date
1977
Research partners
45 organizations in the Netherlands
Areas of research collaborations
Research collaborations to tackle climate change
Advancing energy and integrated assessment modeling in the Netherlands
Global Energy Assessment and the Netherlands
Projecting demographic change in the Netherlands
Increasing flood resilience
Smarter ways to manage the agricultural and forestry sectors
Analyzing global and European water challenges
The future of fisheries and other evolutionary studies
Capacity building
21 doctoral students from the Netherlands have participated in IIASA’s Young Scientists Summer Program and its new Southern African version
Publication output
341 publications have resulted from IIASA-Dutch collaborations

6. NATIONAL MEMBER ORGANIZATION
The Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO)
Professor Dr Jos J Engelen, Chairman of NWO, is the IIASA Council Member for the Netherlands
Dr Josef Stuefer, Senior Policy Advisor, Earth & Life Sciences/Policy Development, at NWO is the NMO Secretary for the Netherlands
The Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) is the National Member Organization (NMO) representing the Netherland’s membership of IIASA. NWO is one of the most important science-funding bodies in the Netherlands and ensures quality and innovation in science. NWO pays IIASA’s membership fees with funding provided by the Dutch Ministry of Education, Culture and Science.
Professor Dr Jos J Engelen, Chairman of NWO, is the IIASA Council Member for the Netherlands. The IIASA Council consists of one representative of each of IIASA’s National Member Organizations and is responsible for setting the overall strategic direction of the Institute as well as governing IIASA. Dr Josef Stuefer, Senior Policy Advisor, Earth & Life Sciences/Policy Development, at NWO is the NMO Secretary for the Netherlands.
The NMO has established an IIASA National Committee to strengthen collaboration and communication between IIASA and the broader science and technology community in the Netherlands.
Professor Dr Jos Engelen (Chair), NWO
Professor Dr Ir Wiebe Bijker, Maastricht University
Professor Dr Arjen Doelman, Leiden University
Professor Dr André Faaij, University of Groningen
Professor Dr Joyeeta Gupta, University of Amsterdam
Professor Dr IrArjen Hoekstra, University of Twente
Professor Dr Pieter Hooimeijer, Utrecht University
Professor Dr Rik Leemans, Wageningen University

7. SOME LEADING PERSONALITIES IN THE NETHERLANDS AND ASSOCIATED WITH IIASA
Paul Crutzen
Leen Hordijk
Pavel Kabat
Professor Dr Paul Crutzen, Nobel Prize Laureate (Chemistry, 1995), has been an IIASA Institute Scholar and a frequent collaborator with IIASA since the 1980s.
Professor Dr Leen Hordijk pioneered the development of integrated assessments of air pollution problems in Europe at IIASA during the 1980s. He returned as IIASA’s eighth Director ( ) after which he served as Director of the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre’s Institute for Environment and Sustainability until 2011.
Professor Dr Pavel Kabat has been IIASA’s Director General and Chief Executive Officer since 2012 and is a full Professor of Earth System Science at Wageningen University.
Professor Dr Tjalling Koopmans jointly won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1975 after which he soon joined IIASA to expand IIASA’s study of advanced systems science and methodology.
Professor Dr Peter Nijkamp, President of the Governing Board of the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) and Professor at VU University Amsterdam, served as the IIASA Council Member for the Netherlands from
Professor Dr Wim C Turkenburg, Head of the Department of Science, Technology and Society, and Scientific Director of the Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation both at Utrecht University, was a Convening Lead Analyst and member of the Executive Committee of IIASA’s Global Energy Assessment.
Tjalling Koopmans
Peter Nijkamp
Wim C Turkenburg

8. NWO STRATEGY 2015-2018 International Policy
“Active participation by Dutch scientists in research collaborations in Europe and elsewhere is considered a characteristic of strong science in The Netherlands. International consolidation of strengths increases the impact of the research. NWO will continue to promote international collaboration based on the needs of Dutch science, both from the bottom up and by means of participation in international programming.”

9. RESEARCH PARTNERS 45 institutions in the Netherlands, including:
Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN)
KWR Watercycle Research Institute
Leiden University
National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM)
Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI)
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research (TNO)
Royal Dutch Shell
University of Groningen
Utrecht University
VU University Amsterdam
Wageningen University
Research Partners in the Netherlands
IIASA is continually developing collaborations with the Netherlands and has recently been working with 45 organizations in the Netherlands via formal and informal connections
IIASA works with research funders, academic institutions, policymakers and individual researchers in the Netherlands. The following list includes the names of the organizations or the individual’s affiliated institutions that have all recently collaborated with IIASA.
Alterra Wageningen UR
Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI Wageningen UR)
Biomass Technology Group (BTG)
Biomass Research
Brinkman Climate Change Consultancy
Clingendael, Netherlands Institute of International Relations
CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
Deltares
Delft University of Technology
DuneWorks
Ecofys
Eindhoven University of Technology
Energy Academy Europe
Energy Delta Institute
ENERGIA International Network on Gender and Sustainable Energy
Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN)
Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), University of Leiden
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University Amsterdam
Institute for Marine Resources and Ecosystem Studies (IMARES Wageningen UR)
Institute of Biology (IBL), Leiden University
KIWA Water Research
KWR Watercycle Research Institute
Leiden University
Louis Bolk Institute
Maastricht University
MacFergus
National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM)
National Aerospace Laboratory (NLR)
Netherlands Institute for Space Research (SRON)
Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI)
Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research (TNO)
Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO)
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
PRé Consultants
Radboud University
Royal Dutch Shell
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
University of Amsterdam (UvA)
University of Groningen
University of Twente
Utrecht University
VU University Amsterdam
VU University Medical Center Amsterdam
Wageningen University
Wetlands International

10. RESEARCH COLLABORATIONS
Selected Highlights:
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Global Energy Assessment and the Netherlands
Projecting changing population in the Netherlands
European flood risk could double by 2050
Climate change, energy & water nexus
Better forest management could reduce forest fire danger in Europe
Identifying climate impact hotspots on crop yields, water availability, ecosystems, and health
Improved fishing policies
Research into policy

11. GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS 2000-2100
Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium includes IIASA & Dutch partners:
MESSAGE
(IIASA)
AIM
(NIES)
GCAM
(PNNL)
Dutch national interests are integrally connected to complex global systems that impinge on the country’s economy, energy systems, and climate among others. IIASA’s recent collaborations with researchers and institutions in the Netherlands are improving energy and integrated assessment modeling and thereby contributing to the Netherlands’ strategic research base through enhancing modeling knowledge and skills. In addition, the research improves understanding of how global and national energy and climate policies may impact the Netherlands.
Recent collaborations include:
• IIASA works closely with PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) and other international partners in the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC), an international research consortium created to lead the integrated assessment modeling community in the development of new scenarios to form the basis for future climate modeling, assessment of impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation and mitigation options. The first phase saw the development of projections of greenhouse gas emissions, known as the Representative Concentration Pathways (see box: IIASA’s Global Contribution, page xx), that serve as inputs for earth system and climate models. Both IIASA and PBL each developed one of the four different emission pathways. The global collaboration’s second phase, led by IIASA and PBL, is currently developing the Shared Socio-economic Pathways that facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation and mitigation options. Both these are critical to the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
IMAGE
(PBL)
Source: van Vuuren, D.P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Weyant, J. (eds) (2011). Special Issue: The Representative Concentration Pathways in Climatic Change. Climatic Change, 109(1-2). 11

12. GLOBAL ENERGY ASSESSMENT AND THE NETHERLANDS
: GEA defines a new global energy policy agenda—one that transforms the way society thinks about, uses, and delivers energy.
Significant Dutch contribution:
5 Convening Lead Authors
15 Lead Authors
4 Contributors & 13 Reviewers
One notable outcome: GEA guides targets of UN Secretary-General’s Sustainable Energy For All Initiative
The Global Energy Assessment (GEA), published in 2012, defines a new global energy policy agenda—one that transforms the way society thinks about, uses, and delivers energy. Coordinated by IIASA and involving over 500 specialists from a range of disciplines, industry groups, and policy areas, GEA research aims to facilitate equitable and sustainable energy services for all, in particular for around three billion people who currently lack access to clean, modern energy.
Dutch scientists contributed to the GEA through five Convening Lead Authors, fifteen Lead Authors, a further four contributors, and thirteen reviewers. Findings from the GEA were released in the Netherlands at the ECN in 2012.
The UN Secretary-General’s Sustainable Energy For All (SE4ALL) initiative adopted findings from the GEA as its key objectives for energy access, energy efficiency, and renewable energy. IIASA is also one of several institutions responsible for building up a global research and knowledge network for the initiative. 12
Source: GEA, 2012: Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press and IIASA

13. PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE NETHERLANDS
To update with Finland
IIASA has developed research methods to project population by level of education. This equips researchers with the tools to explore the implications of different education policies on a country’s future fertility, life expectancy, migration and population level as well as economic growth, transition to democracy and ability to adapt to climate change. In 2014, IIASA will publish the first projections of educational attainment by age and sex for 195 countries with Oxford University Press. Findings for the Netherlands show how different policies over the next few decades could lead to a very different composition of Netherlands’ future population.

14. PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE NETHERLANDS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
SSP 1: Sustainability
This world is making relatively good progress toward sustainability, with ongoing efforts to achieve development goals while reducing resource intensity and fossil fuel dependency. Elements that contribute to this progress are a rapid development of low-income countries, a reduction of inequality (globally and within economies), rapid technology development, and a high level of awareness regarding environmental degradation. Rapid economic growth in low-income countries reduces the number of people below the poverty line. The world is characterized by an open, globalized economy, with rapid technological change directed toward environmentally friendly processes, including clean energy technologies and innovations that enhance agricultural output. Consumption is oriented toward low material growth and energy intensity, with a relatively low level of consumption of animal products. Significant investments in education coincide with low population growth, and both government and private institutions are working together to promote public policy solutions and economic development. The Millennium Development Goals are achieved within the next decade or two, resulting in educated populations with access to safe water, improved sanitation and medical care. Other factors that reduce vulnerability to climate and other global changes include the implementation of stringent policies to control air pollutants and rapid shifts toward universal access to clean and modern energy in the developing world.
Population Component of SSP1: Rapid Development
This storyline assumes that educational and health investments accelerate the demographic transition, leading to a relatively low world population. This implies assumptions of low mortality and high education for all three country groups. With respect to fertility assumptions the story is more complex. For rich OECD countries the emphasis on quality of life is assumed to make it easier for women to combine work and family, making further fertility declines unlikely. For this reason the medium fertility assumption was chosen for this group of countries. Low fertility assumptions were chosen for all other countries as implied by the assumed rapid continuation of demographic transition. Migration levels were assumed to be medium for all countries under this SSP.

15. PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE NETHERLANDS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

16. PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE NETHERLANDS
To update with Finland
IIASA has developed research methods to project population by level of education. This equips researchers with the tools to explore the implications of different education policies on a country’s future fertility, life expectancy, migration and population level as well as economic growth, transition to democracy and ability to adapt to climate change. In 2014, IIASA will publish the first projections of educational attainment by age and sex for 195 countries with Oxford University Press. Findings for the Netherlands show how different policies over the next few decades could lead to a very different composition of Netherlands’ future population.

17. PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE NETHERLANDS CONVENTIONAL DEVELOPMENT
SSP 5: Conventional development
This storyline envisions a world that stresses conventional development oriented toward economic growth as the solution to social and economic problems through the pursuit of enlightened self-interest. The preference for rapid conventional development leads to an energy system dominated by fossil fuels, resulting in high GHG emissions and challenges to mitigation. Lower socio-environmental challenges to adaptation result from attainment of human development goals, robust economic growth, highly engineered infrastructure with redundancy to minimize disruptions from extreme events, and highly managed ecosystems.
Population Component of SSP5: Conventional Development
This world of conventional development features high education assumptions and low mortality assumptions across all countries. For fertility the pattern is strongly differentiated, with relatively high fertility assumed for the rich OECD countries (as a consequence of high technology and a very high standard of living that allows for easier combination of work and family, and possibly for immigrant domestic assistants) and low fertility assumed for all other countries. The emphasis on market solutions and globalization also implies the assumption of high migration for all countries.

18. PROJECTING CHANGING POPULATION IN THE NETHERLANDS CONVENTIONAL DEVELOPMENT

19. CLIMATE CHANGE, ENERGY & WATER NEXUS
Decrease in thermoelectric power generating capacity due to lack of cooling-water
Maps show : Projected changes in summer mean usable capacity of power plants in the US and Europe for the 2040s (2031–2060) relative to the control period (1971–2000).
This comes from your recent Nature and Climate Change paper:
Higher water temperatures and reduced river flows in Europe and the United States in recent years have resulted in reduced production, or temporary shutdown, of several thermoelectric power plants, resulting in increased electricity prices and raising concerns about future energy security in a changing climate.
Thermoelectric (nuclear or fossil-fuelled) power plants, supply 91% and 78% of total electricity in the US and Europe respectively, thus disruption to their operation is a significant concern for the energy sector.
A study published online on 3 June in Nature Climate Change projects further disruption to supply, with a likely decrease in thermoelectric power generating capacity of between 6-19% in Europe and 4-16% in the United States for the period , due to lack of cooling-water. The likelihood of extreme (>90%) reductions in thermoelectric power generation will, on average, increase by a factor of three.
Compared to other water use sectors (e.g. industry, agriculture, domestic use), the thermoelectric power sector is one of the largest water users in the US (at 40%) and in Europe (43% of total surface water withdrawals). While much of this water is ‘recycled’ the power plants rely on consistent volumes of water, at a particular temperature, to prevent overheating of power plants. Reduced water availability and higher water temperatures - caused by increasing ambient air temperatures associated with climate change - are therefore significant issues for electricity supply.
Further information: van Vliet MTH, Yearsley JR, Ludwig F, Vögele S, Lettenmaier DP & Kabat P (2012). Vulnerability of US and European electricity supply to climate change. Nature Climate Change.
Projected changes in summer mean usable capacity of power plants in the US and Europe for the 2040s (2031–2060) relative to the control period (1971–2000).
Source: van Vliet MTH, Yearsley JR, Ludwig F, Vögele S, Lettenmaier DP & Kabat P (2012). Vulnerability of US and European electricity supply to climate change. Nature Climate Change.

20. EUROPEAN FLOOD RISK COULD DOUBLE BY 2050
Present and projected flood losses for different return periods in the European Union (EU-27) calculated using the probabilistic modelling framework (Methods). a–c, Total losses (a) are separated into: insured losses (b) and Solidarity Fund claims with a maximum present budget of €1 billion (dotted line; c). d, The return periods (rp) represent statistical annual probabilities, with the annual exceedance probability given by 1/rp. Reported losses are derived from the Munich Re NatCatSERVICE database and include lower-bound estimates for the 2013 European floods15. Incorporating the established spatial dependencies in risk assessment, as compared with assuming full independence between basins and countries, leads to higher overall loss estimates at lower probabilities (that is, it leads to a fat-tailed distribution).
European flood risk could double by 2050
Losses from extreme floods in Europe could more than double by 2050, because of climate change and socioeconomic development. Understanding the risk posed by large-scale floods is of growing importance and will be key for managing climate adaptation.
Current flood losses in Europe are likely to double by 2050, according to a new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change by researchers from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), the Institute for Environmental Studies in Amsterdam, and other European research centers. Socioeconomic growth accounts for about two-thirds of the increased risk, as development leads to more buildings and infrastructure that could be damaged in a flood. The other third of the increase comes from climate change, which is projected to change rainfall patterns in Europe.
“In this study we brought together expertise from the fields of hydrology, economics, mathematics and climate change adaptation, allowing us for the first time to comprehensively assess continental flood risk and compare the different adaptation options,” says Brenden Jongman of the Institute for Environmental Studies in Amsterdam, who coordinated the study.
The study estimated that floods in the European Union averaged €4.9 billion a year from 2000 to These average losses could increase to €23.5 billion by In addition, large events such as the 2013 European floods are likely to increase in frequency from an average of once every 16 years to a probability of once every 10 years by 2050.
The analysis combined models of climate change and socioeconomic development to build a better estimate of flood risk for the region. IIASA researcher Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler led the modeling work on the study.
He says, “The new study for the first time accounts for the correlation between floods in different countries. Current risk-assessment models assume that each river basin is independent. But in actuality, river flows across Europe are closely correlated, rising and falling in response to large-scale atmospheric patterns that bring rains and dry spells to large regions.”
“If the rivers are flooding in Central Europe, they are likely to also be flooding Eastern European regions,” says Hochrainer-Stigler. “We need to be prepared for larger stress on risk financing mechanisms, such as the pan-European Solidarity Fund (EUSF), a financial tool for financing disaster recovery in the European Union.”
For example, the analysis suggests that the EUSF must pay out funds simultaneously across many regions. This can cause unacceptable stresses to such risk financing mechanisms. Hochrainer-Stigler says, “We need to reconsider advance mechanisms to finance these risks if we want to be in the position to quickly and comprehensively pay for recovery.”
IIASA researcher Reinhard Mechler, another study co-author, points out the larger implications arising from the analysis. He says, “There is scope for better managing flood risk through risk prevention, such as using moveable flood walls, risk financing and enhanced solidarity between countries. There is no one-size-fits all solution, and the risk management measures have very different efficiency, equity and acceptability implications. These need to be assessed and considered in broader consultation, for which the analysis provides a comprehensive basis.”
Hochrainer-Stigler presented testimony based on this research at a recent public hearing on the EUSF with the European Commission.
Reference
Jongman, B, S Hochrainer-Stigler, et. al. (2014). Increasing stress on disaster risk finance due to large floods. Nature Climate Change (letter). doi: /nclimate2124
Jongman, B, S Hochrainer-Stigler, et. al. (2014). Increasing stress on disaster risk finance due to large floods. Nature Climate Change (letter). doi: /nclimate2124

21. BETTER FOREST MANAGEMENT COULD REDUCE FOREST FIRE DANGER IN EUROPE
The left map shows that by 2090, the area burned by forest fires in the European Union could increase by 200% because of climate change. The right map shows how preventive fires could keep that increase to below 50%. 
Climate change to increase forest fire danger in Europe
Climate change is expected to contribute to a dramatic increase in forest fire damage in Europe, but better forest management could mitigate the problem, according to new research from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA).
Climate change is expected to bring increased temperatures and longer droughts—conditions that will make forests more susceptible to fires.
By 2090, the area burned by forest fires in the European Union could increase by 200% because of climate change, according to a new study published in the journal Regional Environmental Change. However, preventive fires could keep that increase to below 50%, the study shows. Improved firefighting response could provide additional protection against forest fires.
The study was the first to examine adaptation to forest fire danger on a pan-European scale. IIASA researchers, together with colleagues from the Joint Research Centre (JRC), worked with national forest representatives in EU countries and the EU Expert Group on Forest Fires to understand fire prevention options and their impacts. While there are many potential options for forest fire management, the researchers focused on two adaptation strategies identified together with the expert stakeholders: prescribed burns and fire suppression.
“There is still a big debate on the effectiveness of prescribed burning as a forest fire management tool. This study shows that it can be a promising option to protect European forests from the impacts of climate change,” says IIASA Ecosystems Services and Management Program Research Scholar Nikolay Khabarov, who led the study.
Fire is a natural part of the ecology of many forests, but when fires get out of control they can burn huge areas and spread to neighboring homes and settlements. Prescribed burns help prevent these major fires by removing dead wood from forests.
The study also examined the potential of better firefighting to additionally help decrease burned areas. However, no study has yet managed to quantify the cost and benefit of such efforts at a continental scale.
“European forests are vital reservoirs for wildlife, for biodiversity, and for our own enjoyment and well-being,” says Khabarov, “We need to find ways to protect them.”
The researchers note that in Europe, over 95% of all forest fires are caused by humans, including negligence when smoking cigarettes, using campfires and other open fires that are not put out properly, and even arson. “In more populous areas, the chance of occurrence of forest fires rises dramatically,” says IIASA researcher Andrey Krasovskii, a study co-author. “We could prevent many of these fires simply by being more responsible.”
Funding information
The study was carried out as part of the European Union FP7 Mediation Project, which  examined adaptation strategies for climate change impacts in Europe, including forest fires, river hydrology and wildlife, grassland biodiversity, and agricultural effects.  It was published as part of a special issue in the journal Regional Environmental Change.
Reference:
Nikolay Khabarov, Andrey Krasovskii, Michael Obersteiner, Rob Swart, Alessandro Dosio, Jesús San-Miguel-Ayanz, Tracy Durrant, Andrea Camia, Mirco Migliavacca Forest fires and adaptation options in Europe. Regional Environmental Change. September 2014. Doi: /s
Nikolay Khabarov, Andrey Krasovskii, Michael Obersteiner, Rob Swart, Alessandro Dosio, Jesús San-Miguel-Ayanz, Tracy Durrant, Andrea Camia, Mirco Migliavacca Forest fires and adaptation options in Europe. Regional Environmental Change. September 2014. Doi: /s 21

22. IDENTIFYING CLIMATE IMPACT HOTSPOTS ON CROP YIELDS, WATER AVAILABILITY, ECOSYSTEMS, AND HEALTH
IIASA and partners collaborate on a pioneering study to conduct multiple model assessments of the impacts of climate change (ISI-MIP). By carrying out comprehensive and rigorous model inter-comparisons, researchers find more robust findings and improve the underlying models. Results have recently been published in a 2013 special issue of PNAS.
The map shows the hotspots that are at risk in a worst-case scenario of the combined impacts on crop yields, water availability, ecosystems, and health. It identifies the Amazon region, the Mediterranean and East Africa as regions that might experience severe change in multiple sectors. Overlapping impacts of climate change in different sectors have the potential to interact and thus multiply pressure on the livelihoods of people in the affected regions.
Source: Piontek, F., Müller, C., Pugh, T.A.M, et al. (2013): Multisectoral climate impacts in a warming world. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

23. IMPROVED FISHING POLICIES
Northern Cod stock collapsed in and has not recovered since
Heavy exploitation favors earlier maturation at smaller size
We have documented a 15% drop in age at maturation and a 30% drop in size at maturation
Such evolutionary impacts of fishing are very slow and difficult to reverse
New tool: Evolutionary Impact Assessments (Science 318:1247, Science 320:48)
Moratorium
1975
1992
2004 30 80 70 60 50 40
Early warning
Size at 50% maturation
probability at age 5 (cm)
Nature 428:932

24. RESEARCH INTO POLICY (Example)
Dec 2013: European Commission proposed a new package of measures to reduce air pollution. Poor air quality is the number one environmental cause of premature death in the European Union. By 2030, the package will:
Avoid an extra 58,000 premature deaths
Protect an extra 123,000 km2 of ecosystems from nitrogen pollution (more than half the area of Romania)
Save km2 forests from acidification by the year 2030.
IIASA’s GAINS model guided European policymakers at every step of this process.
EU Commission designs new clean air policy with IIASA’s GAINS model
In December 2013, the European Commission proposed a new package of measures to reduce air pollution. Poor air quality is the number one environmental cause of premature death in the European Union. The new package is the culmination of a two year process to review and improve existing air pollution policies. IIASA’s GAINS model guided European policymakers at every step of this process.
The new clean air policy package is estimated to avoid an extra 58,000 premature deaths, protect an extra 123,000 km2 of ecosystems from nitrogen pollution (more than half the area of Romania), and save km2 forests from acidification by the year 2030.
"The air we breathe today is much cleaner than in past decades, but air pollution is still an 'invisible killer' and it prevents many people from living a fully active life,” said European Commissioner for the Environment, Janez Poto?nik. “The actions we are proposing will halve the number of premature deaths from air pollution, increase protection for the vulnerable groups who need it most, and improve quality of life for all. It's also good news for nature and fragile ecosystems, and it will boost the clean technology industry – an important growth sector for Europe."
IIASA’s GAINS model was the central scientific tool the European Commission used to analyze possible new measures. Through GAINS, policymakers were able to examine the costs and benefits of every available air pollution control measure.
“The health benefits of the package alone are worth more than 10 times the extra pollution control costs,” explained Markus Amann, Director of IIASA’s Mitigation of Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gases Program. Importantly, the GAINS analysis has shown that the new measures will have a positive net impact on economic growth in addition to the environment and health benefits.
The new policy package foresees national emissions ceilings for the six most important air pollutants that European Member States will have to respect by These ceilings were determined on a scientific basis with the GAINS model as the most cost-effective allocation of emission reductions and therefore ensure that Europe cleans up its air at the lowest possible cost.
“The European Commission has also used the latest scientific evidence about the dual role of methane as a greenhouse gas and a precursor of ground-level ozone,” commented Amann. “Targets to reduce methane are now included in the national emissions ceilings. In such a way, measures to tackle air pollutants also help combat climate change.”
The new policy package will now be considered by other EU institutions with the view to negotiate and agree on different elements in the package. 24

25. NWO STRATEGY 2015-2018 Goals include:
“Talent programmes that meet the needs of, and offer opportunities and career perspectives to, early and mid-career scientists.”

26. CAPACITY BUILDING
20 doctoral students studying in the Netherlands have won places on IIASA’s Young Scientists Summer Program since 2008.
Young Scientists Summer Program
Since 2008, twenty Dutch students have developed research skills and networks by taking part in IIASA’s Young Scientists Summer Program.
The Young Scientists Summer Program (YSSP) develops the research skills and networks of talented PhD students. Program participants conduct independent research within the Institute’s research programs under the guidance of IIASA scientific staff. Funding is provided through IIASA’s National Member Organizations. Since the first Dutch participant in the program in 1977, over 115 students have participated in the program with the following twenty Dutch students taking part since 2008:
Ligia Azevedo (YSSP ’13 & Radboud University) quantified the degree to which habitat transformation and fragmentation have driven decreases in red-listed animal populations worldwide.
Alessandra Carioli (YSSP ’13 & Groningen University) investigated whether heterogeneity in fertility trends across the different provinces of Spain would persist in the future.
Vassilis Daioglou (YSSP ’13 & Utrecht University) looked at the contribution of bio-energy as an emission mitigation measure and compared the results of two integrated assessment models to see how system representation affects the results.
Vasileios Dakos (YSSP ’09 & Wageningen University) developed general indicators of fragility for a wide range of complex systems which have similar network properties to foodwebs.
Oreane Edelenbosch (YSSP ’14 & PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency) used the integrated assessment models, IMAGE and MESSAGE, to assess both the direct and indirect effects of transport demand scenarios on long-term energy projections and emission mitigation possibilities.
David Eitelberg (YSSP ’13 & VU University Amsterdam) compared the downscaling methods of scenarios modeled using the CLUMondo, GCAM, and GLOBIOM models to explain differences in spatial allocation of global agricultural lands.
Lukas Figge (YSSP ’14 & Maastricht University) conceptualized and formulated a system dynamics model to develop different scenarios of humanity’s ecological footprint that take into account dynamic feedbacks from (degrading) ecosystems to human/socioeconomic systems.
Constanze Haug (YSSP ’09 & VU University Amsterdam) designed a policy exercise to elicit options to tackle deforestation.
Trond Husby (YSSP ’13 & VU University Amsterdam) analyzed the macroeconomic impacts on the Dutch economy that would occur if there were a partial shift in the allocation of flood risk from the public to the private sector.
Marieke Jesse (YSSP ’09 & Utrecht University) studied the evolution of virulence in fragmented populations.
Ka Yin Leung (YSSP ’13 & Utrecht University) researched how concurrent sexual partnerships impact the spread of HIV.
Amandine Pastor (YSSP ’14 & Wageningen University) used IIASA’s GLOBIOM model to analyze how irrigated land can be expanded while sustaining freshwater resources.
Katalin Petz (YSSP ’12 & Wageningen University) modelled the impact of land management on ecosystems services and biodiversity for the Baviaanskloof Nature Reserve in South Africa.
Louise Van Schaik (YSSP ’08 & ‘Clingendael’ - Netherlands Institute of International Relations) analyzed the role of EU member states in health negotiations within the World Health Organization comparing when they negotiated as individual countries with when they negotiated with a single EU voice.
Petronella Margaretha Slegers (YSSP ’11 & Wageningen University) worked with IIASA forestry researchers on the identification of bottlenecks in global large scale biofuel production, specifically from algae.
Floor Soudijn (YSSP ’14 & University of Amsterdam) extended a fisheries model to elucidate how the fishing of cod and sprat affects the Baltic Sea ecosystem.
Zepeng Sun (YSSP ’14 & University of Amsterdam) examined stage-structured consumer-resource interactions and the evolution of a consumer’s seasonal reproduction schedule using the theory of function-valued adaptive dynamics.
Abonesh Tesfaye Tulu (YSSP ’11 & VU University Amsterdam) worked with IIASA’s risk and vulnerability team to explore factors that affect farmers’ decisions to adopt soil conservation measures in Ethiopia.
Sinisa Vukovic (YSSP ’09 & Leiden University) analyzed the use of mediation as a conflict management activity in international relations.
Saskia Werners (YSSP ’08 & Wageningen University) studied under what conditions floodplain rehabilitation and mosaic land use (change) can offer an alternative water management strategy to reduce climate related risks in the Hungarian Tisza River Basin.

27. CAPACITY BUILDING
Southern-African Young Scientist Summer Program: (SA-YSSP)
Johanna Schild (SA-YSSP ‘13/14 & VU University Amsterdam) quantified water flow regulation within a semi-arid catchment and investigated the impact of implementing rainwater harvesting for more optimal water flow regulation.
In 2012 IIASA launched its first regional YSSP called the Southern African Young Scientists Summer Program (SA-YSSP). The Program is organized jointly by the South African National Research Foundation, the South African Department of Science and Technology, the University of the Free State in Bloemfontein, South Africa, and IIASA. The following Dutch national has participated in the program:
Johanna Schild (SA-YSSP ‘13/14 & VU University Amsterdam) quantified water flow regulation within a semi-arid catchment and investigated the impact of implementing rainwater harvesting for more optimal water flow regulation.

28. Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO)
FURTHER INFORMATION
IIASA
Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO)