1. SmartDrivingCars & Older People:
Sooner Rather Than Later by
Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering Director, Program in Transportation
Faculty Chair, PAVE
(Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering)
Princeton University
Presented at
95th Annual Meeting of Transportation Research Board
January 11, 2016
Washington, DC

2. As we Age… Traffic Safety…

3. As we Age… Biggest Impact of Losing One’s Driving Privilege…
Loss of Independence
Impact faced by many Others:
The Young (12->17)
The Handicapped (Blind/Visually Impaired, Physically Impaired)
The Poor (Especially the Rural Poor, no access to Public Transportation)
Mobility also becomes enormously EXPENSIVE
We now need to be chauffeured!... Meaning a substantial Labor Charge
Challenging to share that Labor Charge even in the presence of good public transportation …
Public Transportation relies on personal mobility capabilities to access the vehicles at widely separated stations/stops

4. How can Smart Driving Cars Help?
Substantially Reduce Accidents of Elderly still driving
Now Available… “NHTSA Level2” ADAS (Automated Driver Assistance Systems)
Provide Door2Door On-Demand Mobility in 55+ Gated Communities
Now Available… “Slow-Speed, NHTSA Level4” Driverless Systems

5. How can Smart Driving Cars Help?
Substantially Reduce Accidents of Elderly still driving
Now Available… “NHTSA Level2” ADAS (Automated Driver Assistance Systems)
Provide Door2Door On-Demand Mobility in 55+ Gated Communities
Now Available… “Slow-Speed, NHTSA Level4” Driverless Systems

6. How can Smart Driving Cars Help?
Substantially Reduce Accidents of Elderly still driving
Now Available… “NHTSA Level2” ADAS (Automated Driver Assistance Systems)
Provide Door2Door On-Demand Mobility in 55+ Gated Communities
Now Available… “Slow-Speed, NHTSA Level4” Driverless Systems

7. How can Smart Driving Cars Help?
Substantially Reduce Accidents of Elderly still driving
Now Available… “NHTSA Level2” ADAS (Automated Driver Assistance Systems)
Provide Door2Door On-Demand Mobility in 55+ Gated Communities
Now Available… “Slow-Speed, NHTSA Level4” Driverless Systems

8. How can Smart Driving Cars Help?
Substantially Reduce Accidents of Elderly still driving
Now Available… “NHTSA Level2” ADAS (Automated Driver Assistance Systems)
Provide Door2Door On-Demand Mobility in 55+ Gated Communities
Now Available… “Slow-Speed, NHTSA Level4” Driverless Systems

9. How can Smart Driving Cars Help?
Provide Inexpensive Door2Door Mobility to all w/o Driver Privilege
Obviously enormous societal benefits; HOWEVER….
Requires “NHTSA Level4” Driverless “autonomousTaxi”
Else it must incur a labor cost
Bad News….Unlikely Soon…
California Proposed Regulations Forbid Testing of “Driverless” on Public Streets
We have yet to go the “first meter” Driverless on an “unprepared” Public Street
Good News…. Experience with the near-term “Level2” & “slow-speed Level 4” will prepare us to achieve the general “NHTSA Level4” Driverless aTaxi”

10. Discussion!
Thank You

11. Where are we really?
autonomousTaxis (aTaxis; Adam Jonas Upper RD Quad)
Driverless (where less can be zero)
“Mass” Transit system of the future.
Chauffeured from A2B
True Horizontal Elevator Level-of-Service
Shares existing roads with human drivers
Shares the ride
Enormous opportunity to
Reduce the cost
Reduce the environmental Consequences of increased PMT
Eliminates congestion

12. Where are we really?
autonomousTaxis (aTaxis; Adam Jonas’ Upper RH Quad)
Fact: We have yet to go even “one meter” Driverless in an “unprepared” environment.
But in moderately “prepared” environments we can get started
Recommendation #3: Let’s focus on as many as possible “Deployments” in “Gated Communities”
Low speed (under 25mph), Last mile, ….
And gradually serve more “unprepared”… We’ll get to that “first meter” Unprepared.

13. How can Smart Driving Cars Help?
Near-term “NHTSA Level2” ADAS (Automated Driver Assistance Systems)
Substantially Reduce Accidents of Elderly that are still driving
Near-term “Slow-Speed, NHTSA Level4” Driverless Systems
Provide Door2Door On-Demand Mobility throughout 55+ Gated Communities

14. How can Smart Driving Cars Help?
Near-term “NHTSA Level2” ADAS (Automated Driver Assistance Systems)
Substantially Reduce Accidents of Elderly that are still driving
Near-term “Slow-Speed, NHTSA Level4” Driverless Systems
Provide Door2Door On-Demand Mobility throughout 55+ Gated Communities

15. How can Smart Driving Cars Help?
Near-term “NHTSA Level2” ADAS (Automated Driver Assistance Systems)
Substantially Reduce Accidents of Elderly that are still driving
Near-term “Slow-Speed, NHTSA Level4” Driverless Systems
Provide Door2Door On-Demand Mobility throughout 55+ Gated Communities

16. How can Smart Driving Cars Help?
Near-term “NHTSA Level2” ADAS (Automated Driver Assistance Systems)
Substantially Reduce Accidents of Elderly that are still driving
Near-term “Slow-Speed, NHTSA Level4” Driverless Systems
Provide Door2Door On-Demand Mobility throughout 55+ Gated Communities

17. How can Smart Driving Cars Help?
Near-term “NHTSA Level2” ADAS (Automated Driver Assistance Systems)
Substantially Reduce Accidents of Elderly that are still driving
Near-term “Slow-Speed, NHTSA Level4” Driverless Systems
Provide Door2Door On-Demand Mobility throughout 55+ Gated Communities

18. How can Smart Driving Cars Help?
Near-term “NHTSA Level2” ADAS (Automated Driver Assistance Systems)
Substantially Reduce Accidents of Elderly that are still driving
Near-term “Slow-Speed, NHTSA Level4” Driverless Systems
Provide Door2Door On-Demand Mobility throughout 55+ Gated Communities

19. How can Smart Driving Cars Help?
Long-term “NHTSA Level4” ADAS (Automated Driver Assistance Systems)
Substantially Reduce Accidents of Elderly that are still driving
Near-term “Slow-Speed, NHTSA Level4” Driverless Systems
Provide Door2Door On-Demand Mobility throughout 55+ Gated Communities

20. Where are we really?

21. Where are we really?

23. Past There seems to be a new Transportation Technology realization…
What started out in “1939” as Automated Highways

24. AHS: Automated Highway Systems: 1939 - 1997
“Waterloo”: No feasible way to get started

25. V2V: Connected Vehicles: 1997 -
“Waterloo”: Little value until a substantial market penetration is achieved. Again a non-starter

26. Automated Vehicles (rather than Automated Highways) : 2004 -
Focus on making one Automated Vehicle co-exist with today’s infrastructure and human drivers; then simply replicate
Real beauty is in its “autonomy” (forgo the “Systems” concept) :
Each replicated vehicle benefits (Cost of Replication is Small) !
CityMobil2

27. Present: Safety is an Issue!
NHTSA: Car Crashes cost US $871B/yr (~ $2,800/person 5/29/14)
The Sensors, Actuators and Algorithms are on the verge of being able to
Drive as well as the best of us
without needing any infrastructure improvements
in enough places
at enough times
to make a substantial difference in Safety.

28. But you say… Alain… Safety doesn’t Sell! Look… Few drive Volvos,
Public-sector Mandates and Threatens :
Up until now we have focused on crash mitigation
(This saves lives  , but
hasn’t reduced costs  )

29. Present: Safety is an Issue!
NHTSA: Car Crashes cost US $871B/yr (~ $2,800/person 5/29/14)
Buses:
The Sensors, Actuators and Algorithms are on the verge of being able to
Drive as well as the best of us
without needing any infrastructure improvements
in enough places
at enough times
to make a substantial difference in Safety.

30. More Likely: Future Vehicle Technologies
More Likely: Future Vehicle Technologies

31. More Likely: Future Vehicle Technologies
More Likely: Future Vehicle Technologies

32. More Likely: Future Vehicle Technologies
More Likely: Future Vehicle Technologies

33. Discussion!
Thank You