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Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

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1 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Discussion of Institutions of Foreign Exchange Settlement in a Two-Country Model David C. Mills, Jr. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Disclaimer: Views of author not necessarily views of Federal Reserve Board or System

2 Freeman (AER 1996) Formulates role for central bank lending
Key ingredients Money used to purchase goods and repay debt Liquidity problem rationalizes central bank discount window

3 Fujiki (JME 2003) Adds foreign exchange market with liquidity need
Old creditors with taste shock must exchange currencies Only subsets (of different measure) from each country arrive early to foreign exchange market Different exchange rates contingent on arrival to foreign exchange market

4 Fujiki (JME 2003) Solution:
One of central banks provides liquidity for early foreign exchange Liquidity provision restricted by gold standard at optimal exchange rate

5 Today’s Paper Implicitly asks if such a policy is essential Answer: no
Private payment-versus-payment system with central bank liquidity provision Private Eurodollar accounts Currency union only under special case

6 Essentiality Definition of essential payment mechanism
Why essentiality test is important Approach to modeling payments systems: focus on fundamentals

7 Essentiality: A Definition
Achieves desirable outcomes that cannot be achieved by any other payment mechanism Example of desirable outcomes: public policy objectives Fed: safety, efficiency, accessibility Desirable outcomes strike right balance Today’s paper Focus on efficiency

8 Why an Essentiality Test?
Strong case must be made for central bank involvement Careful evaluation of private sector solutions Example: Monetary Control Act of 1980 Federal Reserve must compete with private sector in provision of payment services Must review whether provision of some services are essential

9 Why an Essentiality Test?
Determines degree of involvement Catalyst Regulation and oversight Direct provision of payment services Weigh adequacy of tools that favor less involvement with those that favor more

10 Essentiality Test in Today’s Paper
Equivalent Central bank liquidity provision under a gold standard Private payment-versus-payment system with central bank liquidity Private Eurodollar accounts Question: How robust is this equivalence?

11 Modeling Payments: Fundamentals
Policy-maker criticism: models seem highly stylized Risk that conclusions not taken seriously Solution: focus on relevant fundamentals

12 Lessons from Monetary Theory
Some necessary conditions for money to be essential as means of payment Imperfect memory about trading histories Imperfect commitment to (enforcement of) future actions Recast language of islands, hills and tunnels into language of information, commitment and enforcement Example: Mills (RED 2004) Recast Freeman (AER 1996) Assumptions about enforcement can raise doubts about essentiality of payment mechanism with need for liquidity

13 Conjecture about Today’s Paper
Strong assumptions about commitment of guardians are driving results Example: Eurodollar accounts Commitment to negotiable CDs Commitment to gold standard Commitment to cooperate Central bank liquidity provision under gold standard seems to require less commitment

14 Conclusion Essentiality test is important line of research in theoretical models of payments Explicit assumptions regarding fundamentals (such as information, commitment, enforcement) add to economist understanding and aid policy-makers


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