1. The Need for Change Pete Lindsay – UK Space Agency
21 May 2018

3. The Space Industry Act 2018
The Space Industry Act received Royal Assent on 15 March.
It is a major milestone in establishing the environment for safe, responsible and commercial operations from UK spaceports.
It is the result of collaboration across UK Government Departments.
Safety of the uninvolved general public is at the heart of this Act.
The Act’s provisions also ensure that spaceflight activity taking place from the UK is carried out in compliance with the UN space treaties.

4. Modelling Risk A framework for modelling overall (financial) risk Pi
Determine loss distribution for probability of scenario
Probability Pi of ith scenario
Value of loss, Vi, of ith scenario (e.g. impact)
Law of total probability
(Pi, Vi) pairs
Orbital environment scenario impact model
Orbital environment scenario probability model
Initial orbital environment data
Background population
System implementation (e.g. Constellation architecture)
Spacecraft specifications
Physics: Time-dependent physics models
Propagators
Collision/interaction models
Fragmentation
Statistical Analysis:
Uncertainty quantification
Sensitivity analysis
Data ensembles
Time-dependent orbital environment data/models
SRP
Atmospheric conditions
CONOPS input Pi
Time-dependent asset value data/models
Revenue
Depreciation
Dynamic economic models:
Redundancy
State/company economic interactions
Non-linear repercussions Vi
Initial asset value data
Cost of spacecraft
Launch cost
A framework for modelling
overall (financial) risk
What is the
probability of a particular scenario occurring?
What is the cost
of a particular a scenario?
What are the
expected losses?
Scenario physical impact e.g. assets damaged

5. GEOF/HERL (Herstmonceux)
Current Capability
Starbrook (Cyprus)
GEOF/HERL (Herstmonceux)
CASTR (Chilbolton)
UK SpOC
RAF Fylingdales 5

6. Key Questions What services should Government provide?
How to source data?
Build or buy?
Better data?
Increased analytical capability?
New Sensors? Radars? Telescopes? Laser ranging systems? Orbital surveillance systems? Something Else?

7. Thank You