1. Lecture 27: Things Fall Apart
May 28, 2010

2. Questions That Should Have Been Asked Before the Invasion but Weren’t
Is Saddam deterrable? What changed in 2003?
Is democracy so easy?
What happens when a historically victimized group takes power?
Effect on regional balance of power
What if Iraqis don’t love being occupied?
Could invasion play into al-Qaeda’s hands?
What if things go wrong?...

3. Most Egregious Blunders in the Occupation
Not enough troops
Disdain for expertise, triumph of ideology
“De-Baathification”
Dismantling the Iraqi army
Early elections
Breakdown of security
Insurgency
Capture of state by one sectarian group

4. Unintended Consequences…
Costs
Blood: ,000 (Iraqbodycount.org) 655,000 (Lancet, 2006) Iraqis, 4,700 Americans
Treasure: $900 billion so far, $7 billion a month, (estimated) $3 trillion overall
State collapse  civil war ( )
New balance of power in Middle East

5. “Shia Crescent”

6. Unintended Consequences…
Costs
Blood: ,000 (Iraqbodycount.org) 655,000 (Lancet, 2006) Iraqis, 4,700 Americans
Treasure: $900 billion so far, $7 billion a month, (estimated) $3 trillion overall
State collapse
New balance of power in Middle East
Refugees

7. Refugees

8. Unintended Consequences…
Costs
Blood: ,000 (Iraqbodycount.org) 655,000 (Lancet, 2006) Iraqis, 4,700 Americans
Treasure: $900 billion so far, $7 billion a month, (estimated) $3 trillion overall
State collapse
New balance of power in Middle East
Refugees
“Winning” the “war on terror”?
Rumsfeld (2003): “Are we capturing, killing or deterring and dissuading more terrorists every day than the madrassas and the radical clerics are recruiting, training and deploying against us?”
Anti-Americanism