1. Exchange Rates by Alan V. Deardorff University of Michigan 2018
PubPol/Econ 541
Exchange Rates by Alan V. Deardorff University of Michigan 2018

2. Announcement
I will be leaving town after class and will miss my office hour this afternoon.
Lecture 1: Overview

3. Nominal Value of US Dollar Trade-Weighted Index, Daily 2018
10%
Dollar Index Broad.xlsx
Source: Federal Reserve
Lecture 2: Tensions

4. $/€ 9%
Jan 1, 1018
Source: X-rates.com
Lecture 2: Tensions

5. $/¥ 9%
Jan 1, 1018
Source: X-rates.com
Lecture 2: Tensions

6. Lecture 2: Tensions Economist 9/7/18
Lecture 2: Tensions

7. 29%
Lecture 2: Tensions

8. $0.000,025,0= 67% $0.000,008,3= Lecture 2: Tensions
67%
$0.000,008,3=
Lecture 2: Tensions

9.
Lecture 2: Tensions

10. China’s Exchange Rate, US$/Yuan, 2000-2018
37%
China currency.xlsx
From IMF, IFS
Econ 340, Deardorff, Lecture 14: Pegging

11. China’s Exchange Rate, US$/Yuan, 2000-2018
The exchange rate did not change at all between 2000 and 2005
China currency.xlsx
From IMF, IFS
Econ 340, Deardorff, Lecture 14: Pegging

12. And reserves more than quadrupled!
See China Currency.xlsx
Econ 340, Deardorff, Lecture 14: Pegging

13. China’s Exchange Rate, US$/Yuan, 2000-2018
The yuan appreciated steadily between 2005 and 2008
China currency.xlsx
From IMF, IFS
Econ 340, Deardorff, Lecture 14: Pegging

14. Reserves continued to rise, to almost $2 trillion
See China Currency.xlsx
Econ 340, Deardorff, Lecture 14: Pegging

15. China’s Exchange Rate, US$/Yuan, 2000-2018
China currency.xlsx
From IMF, IFS
The yuan stopped rising in 2008, then rose slowly
Econ 340, Deardorff, Lecture 14: Pegging

16. Reserves mostly rose after 2008, to over $4 trillion in 2014
See China Currency.xlsx
Reserves mostly rose after 2008, to over $4 trillion in 2014
Econ 340, Deardorff, Lecture 14: Pegging

17. China’s Exchange Rate, US$/Yuan, 2000-2018
China currency.xlsx
From IMF, IFS
The yuan reached its peak in 2013, and began to fall in 2015
Econ 340, Deardorff, Lecture 14: Pegging

18. From 2014-16, China’s reserves were falling
See China Currency.xlsx
From , China’s reserves were falling
Econ 340, Deardorff, Lecture 14: Pegging

19. China’s Exchange Rate, US$/Yuan, 2000-2018
China currency.xlsx
From IMF, IFS
Most recently, the yuan has moved up in 2017, down in 2018
Econ 340, Deardorff, Lecture 14: Pegging

20. While reserves have moved little
See China Currency.xlsx
While reserves have moved little
Econ 340, Deardorff, Lecture 14: Pegging