1. Autonomous (ADAS) Bus & Truck Retrofits:
Implications on Public Safety, Occupational Safety
and Enhanced Trans-Hudson Mobility by
Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering Director, Program in Transportation
Faculty Chair, PAVE
(Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering)
Princeton University
Presented at
Strategic Market Alignment for Roadway Technologies
(SMART) Meeting
December 2, 2015
Kierman Plaza
Albany, NY

2. A Few Realizations about… Safety
Deaths/yr.: ~ 32K US; ~1.25M World
Leading cause of death for ages of 5 -> 35
One of the most dangerous occupations
Worse than coal mining
NHTSA: Car Crashes cost US $871B/yr (~ $2,800/person 5/29/14)
($2.8K/person); 1/3 Cash
Liability expenses 2013 (Transit Buses, US) $500M/yr.
$6,300/bus/yr (120 fatalities/yr)
> 90% involve Human error

3. A Few Realizations about… Safety
Effectiveness of Automated Collision Avoidance Systems:
Early Systems: 20% reduction
Google Estimates for Google Car: 78% reduction
Reasonable Expectation of Mature ACAS: 50%
Implications the 10% adoption level:
1,600 lives saved per year (~5 lives/day)
$45B/yr Economic Savings; $15B/yr. Cash
@$3K/System; Cash savings purchases 5M ACA Systems/yr.
1/3 new car sales
Implications the 20% adoption level:
3,200 lives saved per year (~10 lives/day)
$90B/yr Economic Savings; $30B/yr. Cash
@$3K/System; Cash savings purchases 10M ACA Systems/yr.
2/3 new car sales

4. A Few Realizations about… Safety
For Buses
Implications the 10% adoption level:
$25M/yr Cash Savings (6 Fatalities/yr)
@$5K/System; Cash savings purchases 5K ACA Systems/yr.
6% of bus Nationwide bus fleet
Implications the 20% adoption level:
$50M/yr Cash Savings (12 Fatalities/yr)
@$5K/System; Cash savings purchases 10K ACA Systems/yr.
12% of bus Nationwide bus fleet

5. A Few Realizations about… Safety
Implications:
For New Buses:
a $5k; 50% effective ACAS has an RoI of less than 2 years
Over the 14 year life of a bus, it will produce a
NetPresentValue (NPV) > $25K
ACAS Prints money!!!
Also: Lives saved, injuries averted, Occupational Safety Improved!

6. What about retrofit Opportunites?
What about retrofit Opportunites?

7. A Few Realizations about… Safety
Implications:
Action:
NY Must require ACAS on each new Bus Purchase
NY Must retrofit each Bus having > 2 yr service life
NY Must do the same for much of its fleet of other road vehicles

8. Implications: Action: NY Must require ACAS on each new Bus Purchase
NY Must retrofit each Bus having > 2 yr service life
NY Must do the same for much of its fleet of other road vehicles

9. What are the Bottlenecks in Trans-Hudson Mobility
Automobiles
Forget about it
Rail
The Amtrak Tunnels
Few stations
Buses
PABT
495 viaduct
Lincoln Tunnel

10. Can Anything be Done?

11. Just a Note:
Application of Existing Automated Collision Avoidance Systems (Which include: Lane Keeping & Intelligent Cruise Control)
(What exists today in Mercedes, Volvo & Tesla)
To the 3,000 buses that currently use the XBL today
3,000 x $5,000 = $15M (0.15% of $10B)
Could increase the capacity of the XBL by 50%
From 700 to 1,050 buses/hr (adding 17,500 commuters/hr = added capacity of new rail tunnel)
But ONLY if the $10B spent on the new terminal is designed to accommodate this 50% increase in throughput.

12. What are the Bottlenecks in Trans-Hudson Mobility
Implications:
Action:
PANYNJ Must Seriously Consider the role of ACAS-equipped buses in the design and operation of the new bus terminal. (This is the dog, not the tail)

13. Discussion!
Thank You

17. Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance
The Business Case
The Trend is NOT Good!

18. Automated Collision Avoidance
Near-Term Transit Opportunity:
Automated Collision Avoidance
The Business Case
2013 Nationwide
Bus Casualty and Liability Expense
Source FTA NTD
Casualty and Liability Amount
Vehicle-related
119 Fatalities
15,351 Injuries 
$499,872,628.
Total Buses
Commuter Bus (CB), Motor Bus (MB),
Bus Rapid Transit (RB), Demand Responsive (DR)
80,795
Sub-Total Casualty and Liability Amount Per Bus
$6,187/Bus/Year

19. Present: Safety is an Issue!
NHTSA: Car Crashes cost US $871B/yr (~ $2,800/person 5/29/14)
The Sensors, Actuators and Algorithms are on the verge of being able to
Drive as well as the best of us
without needing any infrastructure improvements
in enough places
at enough times
to make a substantial difference in Safety.

20. Port Authority Bus Terminal (PABT) New York City
Source: Google Earth 2013

21. Potential Increased Capacity of Exclusive Bus Lane (XBL) Using Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control (CACC) (Assumes 45 foot (13.7 m) with 57 seats)
Average Interval Between Buses (seconds)
Average Spacing Between Buses (ft)
Average Spacing Between Buses (m)
Buses Per Hour
Additional Buses per Hour
Seated Passengers Per Hour
Increase in Seated Passengers per Hour 1 6 2
3,600
2,880
205,200
164,160 47 14
1,800
1,080
102,600
61,560 3
109 33
1,200
480
68,400
27,360 4
150 46
900
180
51,300
10,260
5 (Base)
212 64
720 -
41,040

22. Increasing Bus Capacity To Mid-town Manhattan Would Involve Three Elements:  
Increasing the capacity of the PABT, particularly to accommodate outbound passengers in the PM peak*
Increasing the capacity to feed buses into the terminal for PM outbound service, either by making bus storage space available in Manhattan or by expediting the PM eastbound flow of buses through the Lincoln Tunnel.
Increasing the AM peak hour flow of buses through the XBL
*currently under study

23. But you say… Alain… Safety doesn’t Sell! Look… Few drive Volvos,
Public-sector Mandates and Threatens :
Up until now we have focused on crash mitigation
(This saves lives  , but
hasn’t reduced costs  )

24. Present: Safety is an Issue!
NHTSA: Car Crashes cost US $871B/yr (~ $2,800/person 5/29/14)
Buses:
The Sensors, Actuators and Algorithms are on the verge of being able to
Drive as well as the best of us
without needing any infrastructure improvements
in enough places
at enough times
to make a substantial difference in Safety.

25. More Likely: Future Vehicle Technologies
More Likely: Future Vehicle Technologies

26. More Likely: Future Vehicle Technologies
More Likely: Future Vehicle Technologies

27. More Viable Future: For Example
Driving a Bus is NOT Simple and Very Stressful
Requires Continuous Diligence
2 bus drivers in NYC arrested for striking a pedestrian while simply trying to do their job
Driving is one of the most dangerous occupation

28. Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance
The Political Case
Driving a Bus is NOT Simple and Very Stressful
Requires Continuous Diligence
2 bus drivers in NYC arrested for striking a pedestrian while simply trying to do their job
Driving is one of the most dangerous occupation
Drivers need help and ACA systems are available to help!
Transit Unions & OSHA need to be demanding deployment of ACAS on all buses!

29. Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance
The Business Case
Bus Collisions are Expensive!

30. Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance
The Business Case
Bus Collisions are Expensive!
In the next five days the bus transit industry will spend $6.8 million in casualty and liability expenses

31. Fundamental Business Model
Near-Term Transit Opportunity:
Automated Collision Avoidance
The Business Case
Bus Collisions are Expensive!
Fundamental Business Model
We are near a point where:
Cost of Automated Collision Avoidance Technology
<
Present Value {Expected Liability Savings over life of bus}

32. Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance
The Business Case
Bus Collisions are Expensive!

33. Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance
The Business Case
Bus Collisions are Expensive!

34. Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance
The Business Case
Bus Collisions are Expensive!
Plus: Lives Saved, Injuries Avoided, Disruptions Averted, and Arrests not Made All for Free!!!

35. Fundamentally Strong Business Case!
Future
Evolve the Sensors, Actuators and Algorithms to
be Cheaper & Drive Better than the best of us
without needing any infrastructure improvements
in More places
at More times
While continuing to improve Safety, AND
Revolutionize Mobility for All
Substantially Reduce
Energy Consumption
Pollution, and
Green House Gases (GHG)
Fundamentally Strong Business Case!

36. Fundamentally Strong Business Case! an Enormous Amount of Work
But,
an Enormous Amount of Work
Needs to be Done

37. Over the Past 3 Years A Number of US have been Meeting:
To Leverage the Region’s Assets:
Home of major NA HQ: Insurance, Auto OEM, Technology, Communications and University Research
Re-purposing of PU’s Forrestal Campus, Fort Monmouth & Bell Labs
To Create the Research, Certification & Commercialization Environment:
That Develops Automated Vehicle (AV) Technology such that:
PriceSDT < NetPresentValue {
Expected {AccidentLiability w/o AV }
- Expected {AccidentLiability w AV }}
To Create Jobs while Improving Safety, Mobility and the Environment

38. Over the Past 3 Years We’ve created :
Center for Automated Road Transportation Safety (CARTS)
Initial Board of Governance:
Initial Focus on Automated Collision Avoidance
A Scope that includes
Research
Certification &
Commercialization
That Spans all Road modes:
Cars
Buses
Trucks
And Recognizes the Importance of After-market as well as OEM

39. Automated Collision Avoidance
CARTS Focus:
Automated Collision Avoidance
Modal Dimension
Sector Dimension
Commercialization
Certification
Research
Transit
Cars
Trucks
CARTS Activity Matrix

40. After-market/Retrofit
CARTS Focus:
Automated Collision Avoidance
Center’s Activity Tensor
Trucks
After-market/Retrofit
Modal Dimension
Transit
OEM
Cars
Research
Certification
Commercialization
Sector Dimension

41. After-Market/Retrofit After-Market/Retrofit
CARTS Focus:
Automated Collision Avoidance
Center’s Activity Tensor
Research
Certification
Commercialization
Trucks
Trucks
Transit
Modal Dimension
Transit
After-Market/Retrofit
Cars
After-Market/Retrofit
Cars
OEM
OEM
Research
Certification
Commercialization
Sector Dimension

42. Next Steps
Launch the CARTS Research Activities @ PU’s Forrestal Campus,
Prepare for the CARTS Certification Activities @ Fort Monmouth, and
Prepare for the CARTS Commercialization Bell Works

43. Discussion!
Thank You

44. Just a Note:

45. Just a Note:
Application of Existing Automated Lane Keeping & Intelligent Cruise Control
(What exists today in Mercedes, Volvo & Tesla)
To the 3,000 buses that currently use the XBL today
3,000 x $5,000 = $15M (0.15% of $10B)
Could increase the capacity of the XBL by 50%
From 700 to 1,050 buses/hr (adding 17,500 commuters/hr = added capacity of new rail tunnel)
But ONLY if the $10B spent on the new terminal is designed to accommodate this 50% increase in throughput.

46. The following slides will NOT be used

48. McAfee Office Building
Princeton University Center for Research, Certification & Commercialization of Automated Vehicles at Fort Monmouth
McAfee Complex
1250’ x 865’ ~ 25.8 acres
Vehicle Bays
McAfee Office Building
~ 100,000sf
Support Buildings

49. Center for Automated Road Transportation Safety
McAfee Complex
1250’ x 865’ ~ 25.8 acres
Vehicle Bays
McAfee Office Building
~ 100,000sf
Support Buildings

50. Princeton University Center for Research, Certification & Commercialization of Automated Vehicles at Fort Monmouth
Secure Test Center
~ 80 acres

51. Mixed Use of Roadways in
Princeton University Center for Research, Certification & Commercialization of Automated Vehicles at Fort Monmouth
Mixed Use of Roadways in
½ the Fort ~ 1 sq. mile
Exclusive Use Roadways

55. APM: Automated People Mover: 1968 -
“Waterloo” limited to serve “Few to Few” demand

56. PRT: Personal Rapid Transit: 1968 -
Attempt to serve “Many to Many” but
“Waterloo” may well be the word “Personal” &
Exclusive Guideway?

57. Quality of Life 101: Important Elements
Environment
Clean air, water, …
Employment
“High Quality” Jobs
Correlated with Crime/Personal Safety
Mobility
Personal Desire with Societal Oversight Priorities:
Safety, Efficiency, Equity, Comfort, Convenience, …

58. Installed Cost ($C) of that Technology
Founding Premise
Automated Vehicle Technology can evolve such that:
If added to a single vehicle,
The probabilities that this vehicle will be involved in various types of accidents are substantially reduced.
Overall the expected Liability Cost Savings ($L) attributed to those avoided accidents
>
Installed Cost ($C) of that Technology

59. If ($L) > ($C) of that Technology
Founding Premise
If ($L) > ($C) of that Technology
Then there is an enormous Business Case for the adoption of that technology by that vehicle
and every other vehicle.
The technology more than pays for itself from the savings that it delivers. PLUS:
The created “High Quality” Jobs,
Improved Personal Safety
Avoided Personal Disruptions
Improved the Environment, and
Arguably Improved: Efficiency, Equity, Comfort, Convenience, …
All Come for FREE!

60. Fundamental Focus of the NJ Center for AV@ Fort Monmouth:
Advancing AV Technologies that ($L) > ($C)
Facilitating Fundamental R&D on
enabling sensor and control technologies, and
Vehicle<->driver/rider<->WWW<->Vehicle… interface elements
Quantifying the Expected Accident Probability implications of those AV Technologies.
To enable positive insurance and risk mitigation interests to propel adoption that also greatly benefits
Testing and Certification of those AV Technologies
Support Technically the Public Oversight/Regulation of those AV Technologies
Support Technically the Commercialization of those AV Technologies

61. Assets We Have: Enabling State Legislation S-734 passed NJ Senate 35-0
Assembly bill waiting to move. We can help.

62. Assets We Have: McAffee Center 25 acre Campus Eastern Gated Test Site
Enabling State Legislation
S-734 passed NJ Senate 35-0
Assembly bill waiting to move. We can help.
Option on Facilities
McAffee Center
25 acre Campus
100,000 ft2 office
2 large 1st class garages
Eastern Gated Test Site
80 acres
Existing streets and buildings
Limited use of Fort’s exiting roadways

63. Center for Research of SmartDrivingCars (CRS)
Princeton University
Center for Research of SmartDrivingCars (CRS)
at Fort Monmouth
McAfee Complex
1250’ x 865’ ~ 25.8 acres
Vehicle Bays
McAfee Office Building
~ 100,000sf
Support Buildings

64. Center for Research of SmartDrivingCars (CRS) at Fort Monmouth
Princeton University
Center for Research of SmartDrivingCars (CRS)
at Fort Monmouth
Exclusive Use Roadways Area
~ 60 acres
Vehicle Bays
McAfee Office Building
~ 100,000sf
Support Buildings

65. Center for Research of SmartDrivingCars (CRS)
Princeton University
Center for Research of SmartDrivingCars (CRS)
at Fort Monmouth
Mixed Use Roadways
½ The Fort ~ 1 sq. mile
Exclusive Use Roadways

66. Assets We Have: Many interested entities Enabling State Legislation
S-734 passed NJ Senate 35-0
Assembly bill waiting to move. We can help.
Option on Facilities
McAffee Center
Eastern Gated Test Site
Limited use of Fort’s exiting roadways
Many interested entities
Universities: Princeton, UTRC2, U Md, Monmouth, NJIT
Insurance: Munich Re, WSTIP, ICNJ, NJM,
Technology Co: Siemens, MobilEye, Rosco, Soterea, Lam Cloud
Foundations & Corporations: DCH Autogroup, Teen Safety Foundation, Comcast, Verizon,
Public & non-Profits: NJ Transit, GCTC, APTA, ATRA,
Consultants: HNTB, EPS,
Public Sector: NJ DoT, MVC, PANYNJ, NJTPA, L&PS

67. Organizational Stucture:
Example: Insurance Institute for Highway Safety
Mission Statement
The Insurance institute for highway safety is an independent, nonprofit, scientific and educational organization it identifies and evaluates ways to reduce the human and economic losses resulting from motor vehicle crashes and communicates the results of that research to the public, federal, state, and local highway and vehicle safety officials, vehicle manufacturers, insurers, the media, the research community and others (IIHS)
The NJ center for automated Ft. Monmouth is an independent, nonprofit, scientific and educational organization. It advances and evaluates automated vehicle technologies to reduce motor vehicle crashes and communicates the results of that research to the public, federal, state, and local highway and vehicle safety officials, vehicle manufacturers, insurers, the media, the research community and others (NJ

68. Organizational Stucture:
Example: Insurance Institute for Highway Safety
Impact Statement
Research projects undertaken identify and evaluate methods of reducing the personal injuries and property damage resulting from the use of motor vehicles (IIHS)
Research projects undertaken:
Advancing AV Technologies that ($L) > ($C)
Facilitating Fundamental R&D on enabling sensor and control technologies, and Vehicle<->driver/rider<->WWW<->Vehicle… interface elements
Quantify the Expected Accident Probability implications of those AV Technologies.
Test and Certify those AV Technologies
Support Technically the Public Oversight/Regulation of those AV Technologies, and
Support Technically the Commercialization of those AV Technologies (NJ

69. Business Plan/Membership Stucture:
Example: Insurance Institute for Highway Safety : 501 C6
Membership:
~ 100 Members (Munich Re, USAA, Progressive, GEICO , … Not: WTSIP)
& 3 “Funding Associations (American Insurance Association, National Association of Mutual Insurance Companies, Property Casualty Insurers Association of America )

70. Business Plan/Membership Stucture:
Create a 501 c6 (Mon-profit Trade Association)
Tax exempt
Contributions not tax deductible
Companies write-off contributions as business expense
Revenue can not be funneled to a single partner/member
Can participate in joint project with members as long as sponsoring entity funds Center and Member separately
Proposed Membership levels For
Founding/Charter Members
Supporting Members
Affiliated Members
Public Agency & Non-Profit Members
University Members
Associate Members

71. Business Plan/IPO (Initial Private Offering):
All have an OPTION to Join at Chosen Level OPTION expires on April 1.
Level
Board composition
Annual commitment pledged for four years
Founding/Charter Members
1 per member, senior board positions
$250,000/yr
Supporting Members
0.3 per member
Junior board positions
$100,000./yr
Public Agency & Non-Profit
0.25 per member
Contract authority
University Members
0.2 per member
$5,000/yr
Associate Member
No board representation
$25,000/yr

72. Supporting Collaborator Associate Collaborator
Budget
Center Membership
(Revenue $ in thousands)
Founding/
Charter
Supporting Collaborator
Associate Collaborator
Sum
Revenue ($)
Note
Founder's Fee (one-time) $ $ $
Annual Contribution $
Founding Members 5 15
$ 1,875
EoY 1 Members 6 7 20
$ 2,375
EoY 2 Members 10 27
$ 3,000
Steady-state Members 12 34
$ 4,000
FTE/member EoY 1 2 1
0.5 4
FTE/member EoY 2 3
FTE/member Steady-state 16
Office Space (sf) EoY 1
1,800
1,050
525
3,375
150 sf/FTE
Office Space (sf) EoY 2
3,150
3,000
750
6,900
Office Space (sf) S-S
15,000
9,000
900
24,900
Garage Space (# bays) EoY 1
1.75
0.7
Garage Space (# bays) EoY 2
2.5
Garage Space (# bays) S-S 14
1.2 18
Center Management
(Expense$ in thousands)
Numbers
Expenditure ($)
Note
Founding Staff 2
EoY 1 Staff 4
EoY 2 Staff 5
Steady-state Staff 7
Office Space (sf) Start
300 $
150 $20/sf
Office Space (sf) EoY 1
600 $
Office Space (sf) EoY 2
750 $
Office Space (sf) S-S
1,050 $
Salary*2.5 ($) Start $
$125
Overhead ($) EoY 1
$ ,300
$130
Overhead ($) EoY 2
$ ,688
$135
Overhead ($) S-S
$ ,450
$140
Research ($) EoY 1
$ ,150
Revenue$-Office$-Salary$
Research ($) EoY 2 $
Research ($) S-S
$ ,263

73. Value to Your Organization: Contributions from around the room

74. Strategic Market Alignment for Roadway Technologies (SMART) Meeting

76. AHS: Automated Highway Systems: 1939 - 1997
“Waterloo”: No feasible way to get started

77. V2V: Connected Vehicles: 1997 -
“Waterloo”: Little value until a substantial market penetration is achieved. Again a non-starter

78. Automated Vehicles (rather than Automated Highways) : 2004 -
Focus on making one Automated Vehicle co-exist with today’s infrastructure and human drivers; then simply replicate
Real beauty is in its “autonomy” (forgo the “Systems” concept) :
Each replicated vehicle benefits (Cost of Replication is Small) !
CityMobil2

79. A Capacity Bonus for NJ TRANSIT Exclusive Bus Lane (XBL) to New York City Source: Port Authority of New York and New Jersey

80. Port Authority Bus Terminal (PABT) New York City
Source: Google Maps 2013