1. Changing Demographics in Texas
Texas City Management Association Annual Conference
June 10, 2011
Frisco, TX
Lloyd Potter is the Texas State Demographer and the Director of the Texas State Data Center based at the University of Texas at San Antonio.

2. Growing States, 2000-2010 United States 281,421,906 308,745,538
Population*
2010
Numerical
Change
Percent
United States
281,421,906
308,745,538
27,323,632
9.7%
Texas
20,851,820
25,145,561
4,293,741
20.6%
California
33,871,648
37,253,956
3,382,308
10.0%
Florida
15,982,378
18,801,310
2,818,932
17.6%
Georgia
8,186,453
9,687,653
1,501,200
18.3%
North Carolina
8,049,313
9,535,483
1,486,170
18.5%
Arizona
5,130,632
6,392,017
1,261,385
24.6%
*Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and 2010.
15.7% of numerical change in U.S.
Texas is the second largest state in terms of population (2nd to CA) and area (2nd to AK). In terms of number of people, Texas’ growth exceeds that of all other states between 2000 and 2010.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and 2010 Census Count.

3. Population Change of Fast Growing States between 2000 and 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and 2010 Decennial Census

4. Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2009
Percent Change Due to
Year*
Population
Numerical
Change
Natural
Increase
Net
Migration
Percent
1950
7,711,194 --
1960
9,579,677
1,868,483
1,754,652
113,831
24.2
93.91
6.09
1970
11,196,730
1,617,053
1,402,683
214,370
16.9
86.74
13.26
1980
14,229,191
3,032,461
1,260,794
1,771,667
27.1
41.58
58.42
1990
16,986,510
2,757,319
1,815,670
941,649
19.9
65.85
34.15
2000
20,851,820
3,865,310
1,919,281
1,946,029
22.8
49.65
50.35
2009
24,782,302
3,930,484
2,124,124
1,781,785
18.8
54.04
45.33
* All values for the decennial dates are for the indicated census year. Values for 2009 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio.
Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.
The components of change include natural increase (births-deaths) and net migration (in-out migration). In recent years, natural increase and net migration have contributed almost equally to Texas’ growth. Natural increase is much more predictable and stable than net migration. Net migration tends to fluctuate with economic factors.

5. Estimated Annual Net Migration to Texas, 2000 to 2009
Migration into Texas has made very significant contributions to our population growth for the past few decades. International migration is estimated to have made significant contributions this decade. Generally, international migration is regulated and tends not to vary substantially from year to year. Internal (state-to-state) migration is estimated to have increased significantly in the middle of this decade and has remained relatively high. This peak in was also fueled by significant migration from Louisiana post hurricane Katrina. However, with the economic downturn, internal migration into Texas is likely slowed. Internal migration is not regulated by the government and is largely driven by the presence or absence of jobs and economic opportunity. Therefore, internal migration tends to be variable and dependent upon economic fluctuations.
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 2009 Estimates

6. Percent of Migrants to Texas between 2000 and 2009 by Race and Ethnicity
52% of all migrants were international
(848,702 migrants )
(933,083 migrants)
Sources: Percentages of domestic and international migrants by race and ethnicity derived from the American Community Survey. Total numbers of domestic and international migrants between are from Table 4. Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2009, U.S. Census Bureau

7. Estimated domestic migration (2000-2008) by county as a percentage of 2000 population
This map demonstrates DOMESTIC, or internal, migration made up largely of persons who are citizens or legal residents of the United States. International migrants are not included on this map. Generally, western counties had U.S. residents and citizens moving out and the areas around urban cores had U.S. residents and citizens moving in. Note that Dallas and Harris county have net out domestic migration indicating that persons from these counties may be moving to more suburban adjacent counties.
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, Map produced by the Texas State Data Center

8. Estimated international migration (2000-2008) by county as a percentage of 2000 population
This map demonstrates in migration of international migrants. Domestic migrants are not included on this map. It is estimated that international migrants made significant contributions to population growth in large urban counties and along the border. Note that Dallas and Harris counties experienced substantial international migration resulting in a positive net in-migration to those counties. These major urban areas have been cosmopolitan for the past couple of decades, and are becoming even more so.
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, Map produced by the Texas State Data Center

9. Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition,
As of the 2000 Census, about 53% of Texas’ population was non-Hispanic Anglo, about 32% where of Hispanic descent, about 11% where non-Hispanic African American, and about 4% were non-Hispanic Other.
In 2010, it is estimated that about 45% of the Texas population was non-Hispanic Anglo, 38% of Hispanic descent, 11% were non-Hispanic African American, and about 6% were non-Hispanic Other (largely of Asian descent).
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and 2010 Census count

10. Projected Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
This Texas population pyramid indicates that the portion of the population that is non-Hispanic Anglo is generally older than the other racial/ethnic groups. The portion of the population that is of Hispanic descent is comparatively young. This is also true for the African American portion of the population.
Source: Texas State Data Center Population Projections, 2009

11. Projected Texas Population Pyramids by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
These two pyramids demonstrate the differences in age structure between the Anglo population in Texas and the minority population. The Anglo pyramid characterized what demographers would refer to as an “aging” population that is in a state of decline (not reproducing itself). This type of age-structure is often associated with declining economic growth as well. The age structure of the pyramid for the minority population would be characterized by most demographers as healthy. There is a sizable labor force and a sound base of children. Generally, pyramids of this structure are associated with healthy, growing economies.
Source: Texas State Data Center Population Projections, 2009

12. Total Population by County, 2010
The counties of Harris, Bexar, Dallas, Tarrant, and Travis are the most populated in the State. Collin, Denton, Fort Bend, Hidalgo, and El Paso counties also have significant population concentrations. Many counties west of Interstate 35 are more sparsely populated.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census

13. Change of the Total Population by County, 2000 to 2010
175 counties gained population while 79 lost population over the decade. Note that those losing population are generally in western and in rural counties.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Decennial Census

14. Percent Change of Total Population in Texas Counties, 2000-2010
Population increase for
Texas was 20.6%
during this period
This map demonstrates the percent change in population over a ten year period. Percent change is one indicator of the speed of population change but is not always an indicator of the absolute change in numbers. For example, county A with 100 people added 100 people, and has a 100% increase. Meanwhile county B with 1,000 people added 100 people and has a 10% increase. County A is growing at a more rapid rate than county B, but in terms of total numbers, they grew by the same amount.
Counties surrounding the major urban counties of Dallas and Tarrant, Harris, and Travis grew most rapidly. In particular, Collin, Denton, Rockwall in the Dallas/Ft. Worth area, Montgomery and Fort Bend in the Houston Area, and Williamson and Hays in the Austin area.
The major urban counties did not grow as rapidly as those surrounding them. This may be a function of density, most of the land use has been set, combined with the relative cost of development in an already urbanized area compared to one with large plats of undeveloped land.
The State of Texas grew by 20.6% between 2000 and 2010.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census

15. Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2000-2040
This graph represents variable population projections for the State under different migration scenarios. The base (brown dashed line) is the assumption of no migration. Under this scenario, the State will grow as a function of natural increase (births-deaths). The ½ scenario (the red split line) is the most conservative. The and scenarios reflect estimates of migration for those two periods and suggest more rapid population growth. Under any scenario, even no migration, Texas will continue to grow. The 2010 Census count for Texas fell in between the and the scenarios.
Year
Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections

16. Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2000-2040
The migration scenario is likely the most realistic to consider in short term projections. Using this scenario, the number of Hispanics will likely exceed the number of non-Hispanic Anglos in the State around 2015.
Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections, Migration Scenario

17. Projected population by county, Texas, 2040
Texas State Data Center projections indicate that the most significant growth will continue to occur in the major metropolitan areas and along the southern border area.
Source: Texas State Data Center, vintage 2008 Population Projections, Migration Scenario

18. Percent Projected Change of Total Population in Texas Counties, 2008-2040
The Texas State Data Center population projections indicate the trends in population growth and decline will continue. Major metropolitan areas will continue to increase as will the southern border region. More rural, less populated counties will continue to lose population.

19. Economic, Social, and Health Characteristics

20. Texas Total Nonfarm Employment Quarterly Growth
Texas has generally faired better than the rest of the country in the creation of nonfarm employment. During the worst of the most recent recession, loss of nonfarm employment in Texas lagged the loss in the U.S. and job growth rebounded more quickly. 20

21. Texas and U.S. Unemployment Rate
Historically, Texas’ unemployment rate has exceeded that of the U.S. However, as the recent recession started, unemployment in Texas fell below that of the U.S. and has stayed below to date.
Note that the low of unemployment in Texas coincided with the peak of domestic migration to Texas in 21

22. Median Household Income by County, 2006-2008
Median household income is highest in some urban counties and in the fast growing counties surrounding urban counties. It is lowest in border counties and in many rural counties.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 3-Year Sample

23. Percent of Population Less than 18 Years of Age, Living Below Poverty During Past 12 Months,
Almost the opposite of median household income, counties along the Mexico border have higher percentages of children living below poverty. Many rural counties also have higher percentages of children living below poverty. Counties surrounding more urban counties have lower percentages of children in poverty.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 3-Year Sample

24. Percent of the population, aged 5 years and over, who speak Spanish at home, 2009
Over three-fourths of Hispanics in Texas speak English well, very well, or only English at home.
Texas leads all other states in the number of persons who speak Spanish at home.
Source: American Community Survey, 2009

25. Percent of Population 5 years and over who speak Spanish at home, 2005-2009
While persons who speak Spanish at home can be found across the State, the counties radiating from the Mexico border have higher percentages of persons who speak Spanish at home.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample

26. Educational attainment of persons 25+ years of age by ethnicity, Texas, 2009
Source: 2009 American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates

27. Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040tc

28. Estimated Number of Adults with Obesity in Texas by County, 2008
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: National Diabetes Surveillance System. Available online at:

29. Estimates of the Percentage of Adults 20 years and older with Obesity in Texas by County, 2008
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: National Diabetes Surveillance System. Available online at:

30. Share of Obese, Overweight and Normal-Weight Adults by Race/Ethnicity, 2009, Texas
46%
74%
(Percent of total Texas population in 2010)
Source: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System

31. Projected Increase in Obesity in Texas by Ethnicity, 2006 to 2040
Source: Office of the State Demographer Projections, using migration scenario population projections

32. Projected Number of Adults with Diabetes by Race and Ethnicity, Texas, 2010-2040
Source: Office of the State Demographer Projections, using migration scenario population projections

33. Demographics and Destiny
Texas is growing – with more people being added than in any other state we added 4 additional seats to our representation in the U.S. Congress.
Texas is becoming more urban. Many rural counties are losing population. Urbanized metropolitan areas have been growing dramatically over the decade.
Texas is becoming more diverse – much of our growth is attributable to growth of the Hispanic population.

34. Contact Lila Valencia, Ph.D.
Office: (512) Internet:
Lila Valencia, Ph.D.
The Office of the State Demographer and the Texas State Data Center are committed to supporting your work through providing you with the best, most accurate, and objective information we can identify about our greatest asset, the people of Texas.

35. 25 Million Reasons to be Proud of Texas (among a few more)
Demographic Highlights
TEXAS is:
big.  The population of Texas is the second largest in the United States, exceeding 25 million people in
young.  Approximately 28% of Texas’ population is under 18 and only 10% of the population is older than 65 years.1  Webb County in Texas, has the youngest population in the U.S. with children younger than 5 comprising 12.8% of the population.8
embracing of culture and diversity.  Approximately 9 million or 38% of Texans are of Hispanic descent,  2.8 million or 12% are African Americans, and 1 million or 4% are other (non-Anglo mainly of Asian descent).1  In about a decade, it is expected that Texas’ population will have more persons of Hispanic descent than any other racial or ethnic group.4
a desired place to live and work.  Net in-migration to Texas accounts for almost half of the population growth in recent years.1 More than 171,900 college graduates moved into Texas each year between 2006 and 2008, placing Texas as 2nd in the Nation by this measure.
urban. Texas has three of the top 10 largest cities in the Nation.3 Several of the metropolitan areas in Texas are among the most rapidly growing in the Nation.5
The Office of the State Demographer and the Texas State Data Center are committed to ensuring that our policy makers, state and local government agencies, businesses, and the general public have ready access to information about our greatest asset: our people. Our mission is to help our constituents to understand the population characteristics and trends that are relevant to their areas of responsibility and interest and to present that information in a way that is easily understood. Toward this end, we are working to craft products and informational interfaces that will target the informational needs of our constituents. We are also very committed to providing timely responses to our constituents specific informational needs. This slide provides a number of relevant demographic facts about our State’s greatest asset.
Data sources: 1. Texas State Data Center, Population Estimates; 2.  U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey; 3. U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; 4. Texas State Data Center, Population Projections; 5. U.S. Census Bureau,  Metropolitan Statistical Area Estimates; 6. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; 7. U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census; U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

36. 25 Million Reasons to be Proud of Texas (among a few more)
Demographic Highlights
TEXAS is:
rural. Texas is the second largest state in the Nation in terms of square miles (268,601) and approximately 17% of the population lives in rural areas.1 
a working state. Texas has a civilian labor force of more than twelve million workers and an unemployment rate lower than in most States.6
family oriented.  Texas ranks 3rd among states for the percent of households which are married-couple families with children (24.4%).2
multigenerational.  Texas ranks 3rd among states for percent of households which are multigenerational (4.5%).2
growing – fast.   Texas gained more population than any other state in the last estimate year (between 2000 and 2010), adding 4,293,741 people.7   Among cities over 100,000 population in the U.S., 4 of the 10 fastest growing areas are in Texas ( change).7  
The Office of the State Demographer and the Texas State Data Center are committed to ensuring that our policy makers, state and local government agencies, businesses, and the general public have ready access to information about our greatest asset: our people. Our mission is to help our constituents to understand the population characteristics and trends that are relevant to their areas of responsibility and interest and to present that information in a way that is easily understood. Toward this end, we are working to craft products and informational interfaces that will target the informational needs of our constituents. We are also very committed to providing timely responses to our constituents specific informational needs. This slide provides a number of relevant demographic facts about our State’s greatest asset.
Data sources: 1. Texas State Data Center, Population Estimates; 2.  U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey; 3. U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; 4. Texas State Data Center, Population Projections; 5. U.S. Census Bureau,  Metropolitan Statistical Area Estimates; 6. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; 7. U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census; U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates