1. Introduction & Guidelines For LULCC Workshop June 20, 2014
Scenario Planning
Introduction & Guidelines
For LULCC Workshop
June 20, 2014

2. Outline What is scenario planning?
Why and when to use scenario planning?
Overview of the scenario planning process

3. What is scenario planning?
A way of thinking about the future
A tool to develop and test management strategies/decisions under a range of plausible futures
NOT a tool to predict the probable future
A “rehearsal” for the future

4. Why scenario planning? What we don’t know we don’t know
Scenarios work here
What we know we don’t know
What we know
Based on a slide by The Scenario Planning Institute, 2013

5. When to use scenario planning?
From Peterson et al. 2003

6. 1. Develop focal question
What is the question that scenario planning will help you think about?
Example: How can Mongolian pastoral systems adapt to a changing climate?

7. 2. Identify key factors
What are all the factors that affect your focal question?
Adapted from The Scenario Planning Institute, 2013

8. 2.2 Rank key factors by impact
Which factors have the biggest impact?
High
Low
IMPACT
Adapted from The Scenario Planning Institute, 2013

9. 3. Rank key factors by relative uncertainty
High
UNCERTAINTY
Low
Low
IMPACT
High
Adapted from The Scenario Planning Institute, 2013

10. 4. ID Critical Uncertainties
High
UNCERTAINTY
Low
Low
IMPACT
High
Adapted from The Scenario Planning Institute, 2013

11. 5. Develop Scenarios High High Low Low
Adapted from The Scenario Planning Institute, 2013

12. Scenario Plan example
From Weeks et al. 2011

13. Water Water Conservation
Development
Cottonwood
Russian Olive
Slight Climate Change
Extreme Climate Change
Colorado Blue Spruce
Ponderosa Pine
Water
Conservation

15. 6. Wind Tunneling High High Low Low
Adapted from The Scenario Planning Institute, 2013