1. Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution
and streamlined air quality legislation
Particulate Matter- What is it?
Small droplets or solid material suspended in air. It can be made up from many different chemical constituents depending upon the source of the particles and how it has been formed. The photograph above shows a particle interacting with a human cell.
Particles can be classified according to their size and how they are formed. Primary particles are emitted directly into the atmosphere from processes such as the combustion of fuels such as diesel or coal. Secondary particles are formed in the atmosphere via chemical reactions of gases such as sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, ammonia and volatile hydrocarbons.
The two most common size fractions are PM2.5 (”Fine fraction” and PM10. These refer to all particles with a diameter less than 2.5 microns (millionths of a metre) and 10 microns respectively. The particles in the size range 2.5 to 10 microns are referred to as the “coarse fraction”.
Some Europeans are estimated to die now due to particulate matter. This is significant. As a public health problem air pollution is estimated to be similar in size to car accidents or cigarette smoking. However, there is a difference. You can choose to take a car or smoke a cigarette but you cannot stop breathing.
CAFE team, DG Environment

2. Thematic Strategy is a response to 6th EAP
6th EAP- Decision of Council & EP of July 2002:
‘achieving levels of air quality that do not give rise to significant negative impacts on and risks to human health and the environment’; (Art 7.1. of 6th EAP)
Integrated approach; consistency with other environmental policies; exploit synergies;
Better Regulation
supported by thorough impact assessment;
new legislative proposal to streamline air quality legislation
What is the Thematic Strategy
The 6th Environmental Action Programme (Decision 1600/2002/EC) was adopted jointly by the Council and the European Parliament in July 2002.
The 6EAP:
Obliges the Commission to propose a thematic strategy on air pollution not later than July 2005.
States that the Thematic strategy should be coherent and take an integrated approach and ensure linkages through to other environmental areas such as climate change.
“a thematic strategy to strengthen a coherent and integrated policy on air pollution to cover priorities for further actions, the review and updating where appropriate of air quality standards and national emission ceilings with a view to reach the long term objective of no-exceedence of critical loads and levels and the development of better systems for gathering information, modelling and forecasting”
Art 7 (f) of the 6EAP stipulates that the thematic strategy should achieve levels of air quality that do not give significant negative impact on human health and the environment.
A critical load is, for a particular ecosystem, a level of pollution below which the ecosystem ought not to be at significant risk of harm. The 6EAP sets an objective of no exceedence of critical loads for acidification and eutrophication.

3. Objective of Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) Programme
Established in 2001 to provide the technical input for the Thematic Strategy on air pollution
Best available science & transparency
Benchmark current and future air pollution with regard to significant impacts
Define interim objectives up to 2020 – based on analysis of closing the gap between business as usual and Maximum Technical Feasible improvement
Inform the review of air quality legislation
Starting point in 2000
≈ 350,000 premature deaths attributable to PM
Average statistical life expectancy shortened by roughly 9 months, in some MSs: 1 to 2 years.
Clean Air For Europe Process (CAFE)
The Clean Air For Europe Programme was established in 2001 following the Commission Communication “Clean Air For Europe Programme: Towards A Thematic Strategy on Air Quality”
CAFE was established to provide the scientific knowledge and the vehicle for stakeholder participation that would underpin the development of the Thematic Strategy as required by the Sixth Environmental Action Programme (6EAP)
Significant resources have been deployed over the expected four year lifetime of the process. Several million Euro have been invested in outside expertise and significant human resources deployed in the Commission services.

4. How were these interim objectives defined?
Peer-reviewed health (WHO) and scientific advice
Assessment of the effect of current policies
Peer-reviewed integrated assessment to develop cost-effective solutions for both health and environment
Peer-reviewed Cost-Benefit Analysis
Macro-economic analysis
Lisbon Strategy & Competitiveness
Stakeholder involvement and consultation
Over 100 stakeholder meetings and over responses to internet based consultation
Accompanied by comprehensive impact assessment (170+ pages)
Analyses under the CAFE Programme:
The best, most recent and independent health assessment of air pollutants from the World Health Organisation. They have conducted a “Systematic Review” of air quality guidelines to underpin the CAFE Programme.
The RAINS integrated assessment model (Regional Air pollution Information & Simulation) was extensively improved:
Updated energy baselines and emissions after extensive consultation with Member States
Updated abatement costs and potentials now used in the model again following consultation with MS, industry stakeholders and experts in the Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP)
The RAINS model was independently peer-reviewed with respect to its use as a policy analysis tool
An extensive cost-benefit analysis was undertaken as part of the preparation of the Thematic Strategy. The methodology has been published and peer-reviewed by independent experts in the field. This has been complemented by macroeconomic analysis to address issues relating to competitiveness of European Industry and the Lisbon Agenda.

5. Impacts addressed by the Strategy (1)
Health: Fine Particles (PM2.5) & Ozone
Range of problems from minor respiratory effects to premature death; also cardiovascular effects.
No known thresholds for effects
Acid rain (SO2, NOx, NH3)
Affects freshwaters and terrestrial ecosystems
leads to loss of flora & fauna; reduced growth of forests, leaching of toxic metals into soil solution
In its “Systematic Review of Air Pollution” the World Health Organization has reviewed the scientific literature about the impacts of air pollution on health.
It has concluded that there are a range of health impacts associated with human exposure to fine particulate matter and ozone. These impacts range from minor respiratory effects to bronchitis, hospital admissions and premature mortality. Young and old alike can be affected.
The WHO was not able to differentiate between different types and sizes of particles in terms of the observed health impacts. In addition, there is currently no known safe threshold for exposure to fine particles or ozone.

6. Impacts addressed by the Strategy (2)
Eutrophication (NOx, NH3)
Excess nutrient nitrogen causes species composition change & loss of biodiversity
Also causes nutrient imbalances in plants/trees -increases susceptibility to other stresses such as drought
Ozone (non-health)
Damages trees and plants including agricultural crops
Damages buildings/materials
Eutrophication
Europhication of ecosystems (i.e. excess nitrogen inputs) is caused by excess deposition of nitrogen in the form of nitrogen oxides and ammonia. Excess nitrogen can result in plant community change and loss of biodiversity as well as leaching of nitrogen into freshwaters where it can effects on aquatic ecosystems. In addition, excess nitrogen can induce nutrient imbalances in trees which makes them more susceptible to stresses such as drought.
Ozone
Ozone is taken by plants through the stomata or pores. It can cause visible injury and reduced growth. Agricultural crops are also effected in the same way.
In addition, building materials such as elastomers etc. are damage by ozone.

7. Defining cost-effective solutions is complicated
NOx
VOC
NH3 PM
Health
Complex interactions between pollutants and effects
The interaction between pollutants and impacts is complex.
Several pollutants contribute to the same environmental impact.
Some pollutants such as ozone and secondary particles are formed by complex chemical reactions of primary pollutants in the atmosphere
Environmental sensitivity varies across Europe for each effect.
Pollutants are carried by prevailing winds and can have impacts many hundreds of kilometers from where they are emitted
The main four areas of concern are
human health (particulate matter and ozone),
eutrophication (excess nitrogen in soils and waters),
acidification (too much acid in soils and waters)
vegetation affected by ozone.
For each area of concern, the Strategy has looked at the policy gap between the baseline (“business as usual”) and what improvements are technically feasible irrespective of cost. On the basis of analyses of this range, the Strategy has proposed interim health and environmental targets up to When choosing the ambition level, this implies a reduction of emissions from all sources. The main sectors contributing to emissions are power generation, other combustion sources, industrial processes, transport, households and agriculture.
Eutrophication
Acidification
Ozone
Interim objectives for 2020

8. Source: Clean Air for Europe Programme (2005)
Example 1: Fine particles Even if situation improves by 2020: 2.5 million life years or 272,000 premature deaths if nothing is done.
Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5 Calculations for 1997 meteorology
PM2.5 concentrations
This graph shows the anthropogenic component to ambient concentrations of particulate matter with a diameter less than 2.5 microns in 2020 (PM2.5). While a significant decreases are expected due to a robust implementation of current legislation the mapt does not take account of other sources of PM2.5 such as organic aerosol which are –currently not capable of being modelled.
There are still significant areas with elevated concentrations of PM2.5 which will consist of both direct emissions of particulate matter to the atmosphere (e.g. black carbon) and secondary aerosol formed in situ in the atmosphere and which may be transported over long distances.
In addition, epidemiological evidence does not show any safe threshold for human exposure to PM2.5.
The CAFE programme has estimated that some almost 300,000 Europeans would die prematurely in 2020 due to too high concentrations of PM2.5 as well as ozone. While we cannot reduce this problem to zero, there are cost-effective ways of reducing air pollution. These are outlined in the Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution.
Source: Clean Air for Europe Programme (2005)

9. Ecosystem area exceeded eutrophication 590 000 km2
Example 2: Problem of too much nitrogen deposited to nature in 2020 No EU policies have yet addressed this.
Ecosystem area exceeded eutrophication km2
Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads using grid-average deposition. Calculation for 1997 meteorology
Eutrophication
This represents the most disappointing assessment of our air pollution policies.
Europhication of ecosystems (i.e. excess nitrogen inputs) is caused by excess deposition of nitrogen oxides and ammonia. Excess nitrogen can result in plant community change and loss of biodiversity as well as leaching of nitrogen into freshwaters where it can effects on aquatic ecosystems.
The graph shows those ecosystem which receive nitrogen deposition in excess of critical loads.
Although emissions of nitrogen oxides are declining, those of ammonia are not and so there will not be much improvement in the extent of ecosystems at risk from excess nitrogen
Developments in other ecosystems impacts
Current policies have been reducing emissions of acid gases such that the chemical status of previously acidified lakes has occurred although the biological recovery (repopulation with critical species) may not happen for a significant time. There are still significant numbers of lakes, particularly in Southern Scandinavia which remain acidified.
There have been important scientific advances in estimating the sensitivity of forests to ozone exposure such it is now accepted that these species are more sensitive than previously thought.
Although ozone peak concentrations are decreasing, because of reductions in emissions of nitrogen oxides and Volatile Organic Compounds, background levels are increasing due to emissions of methane (in large part) globally. This may have repercussions for achieving long-term targets for vegetation exposure to ozone.
There have advances in how dispersion modelling takes account of deposition of pollution to specific ecosystems such that forests are now estimated to receive higher pollution loads than previously thought.
These factors have had an impact on the extent to which control measures will be successful in protecting ecosystems up to 2020 and why the picture the may be different than presented, for example, in the context of the negotiations on the National Emissions Ceilings directive.
Source: Clean Air for Europe Programme (2005)

10. Summary of “Business as Usual”
Emissions continue to decline
But in 2020
Premature deaths related to fine particulates still 270,000
Loss of statistical average life still 5 months in the EU
Ozone premature mortality equal to 20,800 cases
119,000 km2 of forest at risk from acid rain
590,000 km2 of ecosystems at risk from nutrient Nitrogen
760,000 km2 of forest at risk from ozone
Cost-effective improvements are possible kT
2000
2020 %
SO2
8736
2806
-68%
NOx
11583
5889
-49%
VOCs
10661
5918
-44%
PM2.5
1749
971
NH3
3824
3686
-4%
Ships will represent 125% and 101% of land based SO2 and NOx emissions in 2020.
Current policies are working
Current policies such as measures in the road transport sector, IPPC and the Large Combustion Plant Directive are all delivering significant reductions in the emissions of the most important pollutants.
However, it is clear that significant health & environmental problems will persist. In addition, it is also clear that the contribution from ships to emissions of nitrogen oxides and SOx will increase so that such emissions from EU seas will be larger than those from land-based sources in 2020.

11. The Strategy

12. Costs and benefits of the CAFE policy scenarios50
100
150
200
Case "A"
Strategy
Case "B"
Case "C"
Max. technical
reductions
€ Billion / year
Road sources costs
SOX costs
NOX costs
NH3 costs
VOC costs
PM25 costs
Health Benefits
Uncertainty
Strategy costs €7.1 billion per annum in 2020 and thereafter
This chart shows the benefits between different scenarios. There is a rather large uncertainty between the minimum and maximum benefits. This is shown in the grey shaded area.
in all cases health benefits alone clearly outweigh the costs
so called incremental benefits (i.e. moving from one scenario to a next one are getting smaller.
The uncertainty in the benefits is mainly coming from the fact that it is difficult to know what exact value we should use for saving a life. The range comes from using two different approaches. The Value of statistical life approach and the Value of Life year approach. Un the former, the number of cases of premature mortality is determined from dose response functions and then multiplied by a monetary value of a life. The second approach estimates the total number of life years aggregated over the entire population and multiplies this by the value of a single life year. Naturally there are a range of values for both the value of statistical life and that of life year saved. The figures presents the min and the max of both approaches.

13. Improvement of health & environment indicators following the Strategy (improvement relative to 2000)

14. Summary of Strategy – Costs & Benefits
Ambition level
Benefits
Costs per annum (€bn)
Human health
Natural environment
Life Years Lost
(million)
PM2.5
Premature deaths (000s)
PM2.5 and ozone
Range in monetised health benefits
per annum (€bn)
Ecosystem area exceeded acidification (000 km2)
Ecosystem area exceeded eutro-phication (000 km2)
Forest area exceeded ozone (000 km2)
Forests
Semi-natural
Fresh-water
2000
3.62
370 -
243 24 31
733
827
Baseline 2020
2.47
293
119 8 22
590
764
Strategy
1.91
230
42 – 135 63 3 19
416
699
7.1
MTFR
1.72
208
56 – 181 36 1 11
193
381
39.7

15. Objectives of the Strategy
Improvements by 2020 relative to 2000
Life Years lost from particulate matter (million)
47%
Acute mortality from ozone
10%
Ecosystem forest area exceeded from acidification
74%
Ecosystem freshwaters area exceeded from acidification
39%
Ecosystem area exceeded from eutrophication
43%
Forest area exceeded by ozone
15%

16. Lisbon Strategy/Competitiveness
No change in jobs
GDP effects are small
-0.01% change in growth rate
As it was important to address issues relating to the Lisbon Strategy, the impact assessment includes a macroeconomic assessment. A computable general equilibrium model, GEM-E3, was used to carry out these calculations.
Why was GEM-E3 used? Apart from it being one of the most widely used models of its kind in the EU, it made sense to use GEM-E3 because it has been recommended to all DGs by the Secretariat General (under the so called IQTOOLS project for better impact assessment).
The main results of the assessment are given in this table. The following conclusions can be drawn
macroeconomic impacts are overall small, 0.05 % of GDP. Change in annual growth rate of GDP is 0.01%.
employment effects are negligible. this is because labour intensive and knowledge based industries gain in relative terms and thus increase employment. this compensates to estimated job losses in other sectors.
the benefits of improved health to productivity have not been included.
billions of euros

17. What about China? Has already adopted Euro 2 standard for cars
Euro 3 standard in 2007
Newly built and expanded coal-fired units must install flue gas desulphurization (FGD)
Old plants, sulphur content of coal below 0.5%
All pure condensing type generators below 50 MW are phased out
Levy on SO2 emissions
About €60/tonne
US SO2 price is $150-$200/tonne
Similar levy planned also on NOx emissions.

18. Measures following the Strategy
Euro 5 for cars and vans
Euro 6 for Heavy Duty Engines
Revision of the NECD consistent with objectives identified in the Strategy
Small scale combustion
Review of IPPC directive for larger sources
Energy using Products directive for small sources
Ship NOx engine standards (IMO or Community)
Agriculture (NH3)
N content of feedstuffs
Review of IPPC directive for intensive agriculture
Revise Air quality legislation

19. Air Quality Legislation (1) COM (2005) 447 final
Better Regulation
Merge AQ Framework Directive, EoI Decision, and 1st- 3rd Daughter directives
Tidy up inconsistencies
More flexibility for Member States
Natural Sources of pollution can be discounted
Time extensions (< 5 years) where all reasonable measures taken and new plan prepared to ensure compliance

20. Air Quality Legislation (2)
Move towards electronic reporting of air quality information/Inspire friendly
No change to existing limit values
New provisions on PM2.5
Concentration cap of 25µg/m3 annual average to apply everywhere – legally indentical to a limit value.
Robust monitoring of PM2.5 concentrations
Target to reduce national average measured urban background concentration by 20% between 2010 and 2020 subject to later review where differentiated MS legal objectives to be proposed
Reporting
The Structure of the reporting obligations will be changes so as to permit greater update by Committee procedure. Once the INSPIRE directive is finally adopted, the plan would be to update the air quality reporting provisions so as to be consistent with INSPIRE. This will reduce the administrative burden on Member States by permitting simpler electronic reporting.
Existing Limit values
The WHO did not propose any changes to the existing air quality guidelines in its Systematic Review and so the Commission has not proposed any changes to existing limit values. Those for PM10 have been retained (as opposed to being replaced by the new provisions for PM2.5) as the WHO advised that there was a health risk associated with the coarse fraction (PM10 - PM2.5).
PM2.5
It is clear that there is a significant health risk associated with PM2.5. It is also clear that there is as yet no known safe threshold for exposure but that there appears to be a linear relationship between exposure and risk. In addition, The latest health information comes from studies based in the USA and that are no large scale epidemiological studies in Europe on which to draw upon.
As such, the Commission has proposed that a concentration cap be introduced which would limit unduly high risks for the population. This is not a limit value in the classical sense in that it will not offer a high degree of protection for the population. However, legally speaking it would operate in an analogous manner to that of a limit value. In addition the new directive would require substantial monitoring of ambient PM2.5 concentrations. Such monitoring would form the basis for a new reduction target for reducing the annual average urban background concentration of PM2.5 (average across the whole territory of a Member State). This target is 20% to be attained by 2020 based upon the average level measured in 2008, 2009 and 2010.

21. Final thoughts
Air pollution is and will continue to be a real problem for health and environment
Need to act at EU level -- air pollution is transboundary
Ambitious but cost-effective proposals
Based on comprehensive Impact Assessment
Based on sound peer-reviewed science
Better Regulation
Streamlining legislation: 50% reduction in paper provisions
New approach to environmental policy
Flexibility
Reducing average background concentration of fine particulates
All documents leading up to the Thematic Strategy are available at the CAFE web site.