1. Volume 146, Issue 2, Pages 412-419.e3 (February 2014)
A MELD-Based Model to Determine Risk of Mortality Among Patients With Acute Variceal Bleeding 
Enric Reverter, Puneeta Tandon, Salvador Augustin, Fanny Turon, Stefania Casu, Ravin Bastiampillai, Adam Keough, Elba Llop, Antonio González, Susana Seijo, Annalisa Berzigotti, Mang Ma, Joan Genescà, Jaume Bosch, Joan Carles García–Pagán, Juan G. Abraldes 
Gastroenterology 
Volume 146, Issue 2, Pages e3 (February 2014)
DOI: /j.gastro
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2. Figure 1
Flowchart of patients admitted to our hospital for portal hypertension–related bleeding and selection of the study cohort. EV, esophageal variceal.
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3. Figure 2
ROC curves of the models for predicting 6-week mortality in acute variceal bleeding. MELD had the greatest AUROC, indicating the best discrimination. Differences between MELD’s AUROCs and those from other models, however, were not statistically significant (P = vs Augustin7 model; P = vs D’Amico9 model; P = vs Child–Pugh).
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4. Figure 3
Calibration plots for (A) MELD, (B) D’Amico,9 and (C) Augustin7 models. To construct these plots, the sample was split into quintiles, and predicted mortality was plotted against observed mortality. Points below the diagonal line (ie, identity line, perfect prediction) indicate overestimation of mortality for that group. Points above the diagonal line indicate underestimation of mortality. P values are those of the Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test (the lower the P value, the worse the agreement between the observed and predicted mortalities). (A) MELD and (B) the D’Amico9 model overestimated mortality. (C) The Augustin7 model both overestimated and underestimated mortality.
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5. Figure 4
(A–C) Calibration of the MELD-based model in the 3 samples. The updated MELD-based model showed an excellent calibration in the Hospital Clinic sample (internal calibration of the model), but also in the University of Alberta sample (external calibration). In the Vall D’Hebron sample it showed a good calibration for low values of MELD, but overpredicted mortality in the upper quintile of MELD (P values are those of the Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test). (D–F) The relationship between MELD and mortality in the 3 series of patients. These plots were constructed with nonparametric regression, which shows smoothed actual mortality rates. Tick marks are drawn at actual MELD values. The upper and lower 5% of cases were trimmed. In the 3 series a MELD score of 11 was associated with a mortality rate of approximately 5%, and a MELD score of 19 was associated with a mortality rate of approximately 20%. The Vall D’Hebron series showed a lower mortality rate for MELD scores greater than 20, as compared with the other 2 series.
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6. Supplementary Figure 1
Temporal distribution of the bleeding-related mortality (42 days). Most deaths occurred within the first 7 days of index bleeding.
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7. Supplementary Figure 2
Prediction curve of the updated MELD-based model. The grey area represents the amplitude of 95% confidence intervals. The formula of the regression model was as follows: logit = – 5.312  * MELD. The probability of 6-week mortality was estimated as follows: p = 1 / (1 + e-logit). The bootstrapped R2 of the model was
Gastroenterology  , e3DOI: ( /j.gastro )
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