1. The Electricity Supply and Demand balance in South Africa with a specific focus on the FIFA World CupTM event March A presentation by Eskom
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2. Contents The Eskom 2010MW project
Overview of the South African Power System
Supply - Demand balance
Reserve Margin
Why is it required?
Worldwide benchmarking
Prognosis for electricity supply adequacy
Short-term
A 12 month window for 2010 with a special focus on the 2010 FIFA World CupTM
Medium-term
The years 2010 to 2014
Long-term
The years 2010 to 2025
Conclusion
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3. The 2010 FIFA World Cup TM South Africa
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The 2010 FIFA World Cup™ South Africa
Significance
First World Cup on African Soil
Global coverage
Impact on Brand South Africa
Foreign investment
Economic stimulus
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Event footprint
Energy World Cup Statistics – Germany 2006
Source: Green Goal Report, 2006
Number of visitors: 3.4 million
Average number per game:
Total Electricity Consumption: approx. 13 GWh (over the 4 week period – and only for the 12 stadiums, hospitality areas and media facilities)
Average electricity consumption per game: kWh
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Event footprint continued
Energy World Cup Statistics – Germany 2006
Source: Green Goal Report, 2006
Post World Cup – Average Annual Consumption of the Stadiums: 3.5 GWh
A number of energy efficiency and energy savings technologies were employed to ensure optimal use of electricity, “green energy” was imported from Switzerland
Electricity accounted for 2,490 tonnes of CO2 equivalents
Extensive use was made of mobile generators – including diesel to ensure an uninterrupted supply to the stadiums and media centres (Diesel consumption: litres)
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7. Security of supply for the 2010 FIFA World CupTM
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8. Approach to the Eskom 2010MW Project
Providing power to South Africa is fundamental
Power is like oxygen to the economy
This is fundamental to the aspirations of our country
Eskom aligns with and supports a successful 2010 FIFA World CupTM, an event that will hopefully contribute to positive economic growth in the country and continent
2010 Project Objective:
To ensure reliable electricity supplies, Eskom preparations and treatment of risks for a successful 2010 FIFA World CupTM
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9. 2010 electricity supply chain
Event occurs in Winter
Capacity constraints
Critical installations for the World Cup lie within the host cities and in
general outside of Eskom’s supply authority
GENERATION
TRANSMISSION
DISTRIBUTION
Host cities
& Key 2010
Installations
SYSTEM OPERATIONS
IN ESKOMS AREA OF CONTROL
Within Municipal
area of control
A broad based partnership approach is vital in ensuring reliable supply in host cities
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10. What is the additional demand due to the 2010 World Cup Event?
We anticipate an increase of only 275 MW over the period, based on studies conducted in Germany in the last World Cup.
We expect a demand of 37.24GW in South Africa due to the Winter consumption patterns.
Our current forecast indicate that we will have sufficient generation capacity over this period.
If required, we can run our Open Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGT’s).
We have voluntary participation of customers to reduce demand over the period. (rescheduled maintenance)
We have agreed with Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) that we will increase imports and decrease exports over this period, if required.
Only critical maintenance will take place over the tournament period.
February 2010
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11. What is Eskom responsible for in the power delivery chain?
Host Cities
Eskom
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12. Partnering for a successful 2010 FIFA World CupTM
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13. Collaboration on 2010 Supplies in the Southern African region
Eskom has partnered with members of the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) to ensure:
Any surplus power capacity that SAPP members have is made available to Eskom during the FIFA 2010 World CupTM
Adequate transmission capacity, pre-event maintenance and clean servitudes
Maximising plant production, energy efficiency initiatives and load management during the event.
Pledge to this effect signed by SAPP members on 27 April 2009.
Eskom interacts with various national stakeholders to
ensure an integrated risk management
approach towards FIFA 2010 World CupTM
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Unlocking African Potential
SAPP Pledge to South Africa signed in April (Maputo)
The SAPP agreement demonstrates that the African region is truly contributing towards making 2010 an African World Cup.
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15. Collaboration on 2010 Supplies with the Host Cities
A 2010 Electricity Supply Industry Forum (2010 ESI Forum) has been established - Eskom and the Association of Municipal Electricity Undertakings (AMEU)
The forum comprises membership by:
Municipality Electricity Departments
Eskom
NERSA
Department of Energy
2010 Local Organising Committee
EDI Holdings
National Treasury
Purpose:
To share information on electricity requirements for the World Cup
To share the status of preparations
To highlight areas of concern and challenges
To collectively determine possible solutions to identified challenges
Eskom interacts with various national stakeholders to
ensure an integrated risk management
approach towards FIFA 2010 World CupTM
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16. Collaboration on 2010 Supplies with the Host Cities continued
Through the Regional Electricity Task Teams:
Critical deliverables have been identified
Risk Treatment Plans are in place and in process of being implemented
Simulations to test 2010 FIFA World CupTM response plans are planned for period February – May 2010.
Areas to be tested:
Alignment of Communication
Emergency communication and technical responsiveness
Preparedness: communication, response (technical and security), alignment with disaster management.
Medium to Long Term
solutions required:
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17. Internal Eskom Preparation for a successful 2010 FIFA World CupTM
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18. The Eskom 2010MW Project Project Platforms –
A dedicated Eskom 2010 Project Team
Established in 2007
Audit: Corporate & Technical
Project Platforms –
Each with its own platform deliverable
National Project Office:
Information Technology
Project Management
2010 Demand Side Management
Cross cutting Divisional deliverables identified
Finance and Business Support
Greening 2010
Risk
Management:
Marketing & communication incl. stakeholder engagement
National
Marketing &
Communications
Technical and Capacity
Regional
SAPP
Security and Business Continuity
To ensure reliable electricity supply
2010 HR
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19. Phases of the ESKOM 2010MW project
Phase 1: Apr 2007 – Mar 2008: - Done
Initiate project: Focus on Planning
Identify, Initiate and build key relationships: Collaborate
Conduct Benchmark studies & optimise project plans
Initiate Risk Profiling
Phase 2: Apr 2008 – Mar 2009: Done
Track and audit rollout of project plans across supply chain
Operational, Emergency and disaster management plans: Review, simulate, enhance
Conclude on and implement risk treatment
Phase 3: Apr 2009 – Mar 2010 (The Trial Run): Current Focus
Electricity supply chain ready: Collaboration in action
Host a successful 2009 Confederations Cup:
Initiate final preparations: Electricity supply chain ready for 2010
Phase 4: Apr 2010 – Aug 2010 (Put on the Show):
All infrastructure projects rolled out: metered, audited and verified
Final preparations complete: Electricity supply chain ready
Situational Awareness Centres Operational
Host a successful 2010 FIFA World Cup TM
2007
2008
2009
2010
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20. The Eskom Divisional Preparations for the 2010 FIFA World CupTM
Generation:
The generation production plan has been optimised for the 2010 FIFA World Cup with all the generation maintenance concluded and all generators available for service.
The primary energy to meet our security of supply standards of 42 days of coal and 48hrs of continuous diesel generation has been contracted
The generation plant availability will be maximized with continuous monitoring through Integrated Generation Control Centre
Transmission
The bulk transmission corridors re-inforcements have been concluded. The focus now is on high availability of the equipment during the event
Within the Southern African Power Pool region we have minimised our exports and maximised our imports for the event.
We are concluding with large customers to schedule their maintenance to this time period. In addition we are concluding with large customers that they provide additional consumption flexibility during this event. 20
Confidential
© Eskom 2009
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21. The Eskom Divisional Preparations for the 2010 FIFA World CupTM
Distribution
We are in the final stages of re-inforcing the supplies required by the Municipalities.
There is an additional focus in our DSM program to focus on the winter period.
Numerous regional emergency exercises have been carried out and more are still to take place. This is to test our readiness for the event.
During the project Regional Electricity Task Teams(RETT) were established to ensure high collaboration with the host cities.
System Operations
There is a daily review of the rolling demand forecast for the winter period.
Numerous national emergency exercises have been carried our and more are still to take place.
There is a weekly review from National Control on the requirements for secure supply in the Winter of 2010. 21
Confidential
© Eskom 2009
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22. The Eskom Divisional Preparations for the 2010 FIFA World CupTM
Corporate Services:
In terms of the 2010 Greening initiatives a Memorandum Of Agreement is in place with Department of Water and Environmental Affairs whereby they have taken up our green certificates for the event and supporting energy efficiency.
An Audit of 2010MW project deliverables is in progress currently to assess the levels of Eskom readiness.
We have requested a sister utility that has hosted the world cup before to come and provide a peer review of our readiness. We are waiting for confirmation from them. 22
Confidential
© Eskom 2009
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23. A key milestone achievement
Incident free 2009 Confederations Cup!
16 days of live operations
16 matches
0 electricity incidents affecting matches (despite Koeberg
outage)
Medium to Long Term
solutions required:
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24. An Overview of the Power System in South Africa
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25. Overview of the South African Power System
Supply Side Overview
Demand Side Overview
km of Transmission lines (over 132kV to 765 kV AC) covering an area similar to the part of Western Europe from Berlin to Madrid.
27 Operational Power Stations.
~40.7GW of Eskom operational capacity.
Just over 80% coal-fired. Mix of nuclear, open cycle gas turbines, hydro and pumped storage plant in remaining 20%.
Imports of about 1500MW.
Returning 2 mothballed coal-fired stations, building 2 coal- fired and a pump storage station.
Total operational country capacity of ~43.5GW
29% of South Africa’s energy demand provided by electricity.
Forecast of about 37.2GW peak demand in and over 227TWhrs of energy demand.
Largest 138 industrial customers consume nearly 40% of the energy.
Largest customers consume nearly 75% of the energy.
Approximately 8 million residential customers consume about 20 to 25% of the energy.
Consistent tight supply-demand balance with a very extended electricity transport system. This situation will prevail for the foreseeable future.
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26. The weekly energy trends in the South African Power System for the last three years
A declining year on year reduction occurred in 2009
An approximately 2% energy reduction was seen for 2009 vs 2008
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27. The weekly peak demand trends in the South African Power System for the last three years
The peak for 2009 was around MW.
The current forecasted peak for 2010 is MW.
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28. What are the key issues to manage in a Power System?
State of the “Highways” - Transmission
Balancing Supply & Demand
Meet immediate demand needs
Frequency at 50Hz
4 to 6% as Operating Reserve Margin (~1500 MW to 2200MW in 2008)
Voltage profiles
Line loading
Transformer loading
Real time
Ability to schedule maintenance
9 to 12% as Operating Reserve Margin (~3400MW to 4500MW in 2008/9)
Vulnerability to single mode failures
Security margins
Scheduling of maintenance
Week ahead to Year ahead
Net reserve margin of at least 12% to support growth and ensure security of supply (preferably above 15%)
Adequate fuel security
Adequate level of redundancy for contingencies, maintenance and growth.
Year ahead to 25 years ahead
Not managing the supply and demand imbalance or the state of the transmission highway will lead to system collapse and possibly a blackout.
This requires a management approach that focuses on the immediate short term security needs (keeping the lights on) and long term adequacy needs (building to keep the lights on)
A special event like the 2010 FIFA World Cup does not change the security or adequacy issues to be managed. It does however require site specific preparations and a specific operational awareness level for the event.
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29. These are globally acknowledged, standard CIGRE definitions
An overall indicator of the health of the Power System is the “Reserve Margin”
The Reserve Margin gives you a broad indication of the reliability of a power system. This reliability consists of an indication of the medium to long term adequacy and short term security of the power system.
Adequacy enables us to deal with medium to long term issues, i.e. growth spurts, supply chain problems. It is the ability of the power system to supply the aggregate electrical demand and energy requirements of the customers at all times, taking into account scheduled and reasonably expected unscheduled outages of system elements.
Short term security enables the power system to withstand sudden disturbances such as short circuits or unanticipated loss of system elements.
Additional indicators of the health of the Power System are adequate windows for generation maintenance and the ability to meet the energy demand of the country.
These are globally acknowledged, standard CIGRE definitions
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30. There are two key components to the reserve margin
Operating Reserve Margin for the short-term security of supply
Generation Capacity Net Reserve Margin for the long-term adequacy of the supply
There are two key components to the reserve margin
Meet demand and supply side deviations instantaneously and then in the short to medium term replenish resources that have been utilised.
Deal with the loss of the single largest unit on the system or single point of import provision.
Deal with credible cascading events in the short term (<1 day).
Operating reserve margin plus the ability to cater for additional situations and circumstances including:
Deal with longer term loss of major units or significant disruptions in capacity provision (strike at a mine)
Ability to cater for short to medium term economic growth
Account for major seasonal variations
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Various inputs typically determine the level of Generating Capacity Net Reserve Margin
Reserve margin build up
Comments
KEMA, in a study for NEMCO, indicated that a reserve level of 4 - 6% should be maintained for system security, if necessary, by curtailing customer load in some manner
Operating Reserve MarginOperating Reserve Margin
4-6%
Short term economic growthShort term economic growth 5%
Reserve margin allows space for growth
Generation performance variationGeneration performance variationGeneration performance variation
High range due to varying capabilities of different systems
3-13%
Weather variations as seen during cold spells starting in May
Extreme weather
3-5%
Recommendations from KEMA, CIGRE and other Benchmarks done
Total Reserve marginTotal Reserve margin
15-29%
Total Reserve margin
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32. The declining reserve margin in South Africa
5.1
The declining reserve margin in South Africa 32
Net Reserve Margin (%)
In South Africa the aspiration has always been between 15-19%.
Below 12% reserve margin the ability to operate the grid securely is compromised.
Recent improvements on the reserve margin to around 16% was due to the drop in demand and new generating plant commissioned by Eskom
The lead time to build a power station is 7 to 10 years.
15 – 19% aspiration
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33. Prognosis for the reliability of supply in South Africa
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34. Indicative supply/demand balance for the year 2010
The current load forecast assumes some further recovery of the economy.
However, it is constantly reviewed, and particularly after the first few weeks of “normal” economic activity more refined predictions are being made.
The peak Eskom demand for winter is around 37.2GW
Throughout the year, there is adequate capacity for demand requirements and normal reserve allocations if all generation resources including the gas turbines are considered.
During the Winter period, there is adequate generation resources available with or without the gas turbines.
In the Summer maintenance periods, there is a marginal shortfall on reserves if the gas turbines are excluded.
These forecasts and operating margins are reviewed on a weekly basis by the System Operator.
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35. Short Term outlook – key messages
Since late 2008 there has been and improvement in the short-term security outlook due to:
Reduction in the energy demand linked to global recession and efficiency measures.
Improvement in Eskom’s generation plant performance and increased coal stockpile levels.
Building of open cycle gas turbines in the Cape and return to service of Camden power station and units at Grootvlei and Komati power stations.
For the year 2010, there is a high level of confidence in providing adequate supply for the 2010 FIFA World CupTM.
As there are many risks it is still important to focus on energy efficiency initiatives in this period to restore a healthy reserve margin in this period.
Demand expected to return to 2007 levels in 2010.
If energy efficiency measures are not put in place by winter 2010, the power system will be tight in post winter 2010 and in 2011 as we go back into our generation maintenance season. The risk of interruptions increase.
Within the year, we plan to sign up some of the Medium Term Power Purchase Programme (MTPPP) and phase 1 of the Renewable Energy Power Purchase Programme (REFIT).
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36. Summary of demand and supply imbalance in the next 3 years until the first unit of Medupi is commissioned
Year
Energy Surplus / Shortfall
Capacity shortfall to meet winter peak
Space for maintenance (8.5% requirement
Supply side options (cumulative by end of each year)
Demand side options (cumulative by end of each year)
2010
7 TWh
(86% EAF)
4.5 TWh
(84% EAF)
0 MW
(assuming all OCGT plant available)
8.50%
585 MW RTS
400 MW MTPPP
175 MW REFIT
400 MW Non-Eskom Gx
303 MW DSM
550 – 800 MW response VPS
2011
3 TWh
Balance
(1387 MW)
(assuming 1300 MW OCGT available)
7.42%
881 MW RTS
525 MW REFIT
313 MW DSM
500 – 750 MW ECS
650 – 1900 MW response VPS
2012
(1 TWh)
(6 TWh)
(2720 MW)
5.44%
1063 MW RTS
725 MW REFIT
400 MW Non-Eskom Gx
459 MW DSM
1158 MW Acc DSM
1000 – 1250 MW ECS
650 – 2900 MW response VPS
For the year 2010, there is an adequate maintenance window and the energy and peak capacity requirements are in balance.
For the year 2011 the maintenance is too small and the peak capacity requirements are not met. The energy requirements are in balance.
For the year 2012 the maintenance window, the peak capacity and the energy requirements are not met.
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37. Prognosis for the Eskom Reserve Margin in the next 5 years.18
Prognosis for the Eskom Reserve Margin in the next 5 years.
Key assumptions
Growth: Over a 10 year period a 3.2% energy growth a peak capacity of around 3% is expected
Supply side assumptions:
Eskom’s new build programme as per original schedule (Medupi, Kusile, Ingula)
Does not include all the supply sides as they are not yet firm projects. (DoE IPP OCGT, the renewables and some co- generation options)
Demand side assumptions:
Intensive demand side management programmes or other demand management programmes will reduce the expected growth rates in energy and peak capacity.
The reserve margin information is updated regularly and is available on the Eskom website. The impact of the recent regulatory determination still needs to be factored into the future reserve margin projections.
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38. Prognosis for the Adequacy of Energy Supply for the next 5 years18
Prognosis for the Adequacy of Energy Supply for the next 5 years
The energy balance in the country is very tight and requires intense demand management to ensure security of supply in the next three years until Medupi is commissioned.
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39. Medium Term outlook – key messages
Under most scenarios, the adequacy of supply in 2011 to 2013 is a serious concern.
Demand Side Management and energy efficiency are essential over the next 3 years to ensure system adequacy
A worse than planned generation performance (from 86% to 84% availability) will result in higher risk and reduce system adequacy especially between 2011 and 2013.
Relatively high load factor supply side options are needed in this time frame (such as co-generation options in the Medium Term Power Purchase Programme).
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40. Long term Electricity demand outlook – Peak power demand
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41. Long term Electricity demand outlook – Annual energy demand
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42. Cone for future capacity needs
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43. Long term Electricity outlook – up to 2030 – key messages
Current installed Generation capacity in South Africa and contracted imported Generation amounts to ~43.5 GW.
Current expansion plans are based on the moderate growth scenario (averaging 3% electricity consumption growth rate over a 20 year period). This may change as part of the IRP development process. It is important to understand the impact of changes in energy utilisation patterns.
Eskom’s older coal fired power stations may start to be de-commissioned from onwards.
In order to power the South African economy and ensure an adequate reserve margin, 20GW of additional generation capacity is required by 2020 and up to 40GW by This is based on the assumptions above.
Eskom’s current build programme and well advanced IPP projects could contribute at least 14 GW by 2017 to this requirement.
It is estimated that there is an opportunity of between 8 to15% reduction in energy usage in the next 5 to 10 years through energy efficiency initiatives which could delay the need for new capacity.
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44. Long Term outlook – key messages – immediate considerations
Medupi and Kusile power stations need to be completed – funding permitting.
Possible requirement for a third base-load power station by 2017.
Possibility of a coal based station or smaller stations either built by Eskom or independent power producers (IPPs). Decisions have to be made in the next year to ensure water and transmission network infrastructure is built on time.
Continued focus is needed on energy efficiency to maintain an healthy reserve margin and create time to make decisions.
Role of nuclear and renewable energy to fulfil the energy needs of the country will have to be concluded in the coming year to 2 years.
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45. Integrated Energy Planning for South Africa
The Department of Energy is accountable for Country Energy Plan as per recently published regulations. Termed the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP)
The System Operator will support the department in developing the electricity plan.
Stakeholder process involving the National Energy Regulator (NERSA), Government, customers and other stakeholders is essential.
The Minister of Energy makes the final determination on the capacity, who should build and the technology to be used. This is to be done in consultation with the Minister of Finance.
This is informed by Government Energy and Industrial policy, Stakeholder inputs, Climate Change strategies and affordability criteria.
NERSA licences new generators according to this determination.
Eskom’s current build programme is an important component but is not sufficient on its own to meet the medium to long term needs.
Decisions will have to be made in the next year on the next base load power station.
3 year IRP has been promulgated and target for June 2010 for the 20 year plan. Work has been done on this and the DoE wants to have a consultative process in 2010 to finalise the plan.
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Conclusion
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47. Comparative Electricity Consumption
SA more electricity intensive by
Factor of 35-65% than countries
with similar GDP per capita
(only 15% per capita GDP variance from SA)
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Conclusion
Eskom is faced with a challenging task, of having to manage the country’s power delivery and the management of its assets (the network and people) in an extremely dynamic environment
There is a plan of action up to and beyond 2010 for security of supply but it requires the collaboration of all the stakeholders in the Electricity Supply Industry to ensure its successful implementation.
The actions taken to secure the 2010 FIFA World CupTM provide us with a high level of confidence.
Our vision of success should be the following:
Country has moved on a culture of energy efficiency.
Adequate plant maintenance and new infrastructure build has to be been done to ensure the power system is not constrained in future.
The Country’s economic growth is not constrained due to energy shortages.
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49. The South African dream
Empowering
The South African dream
Thank You
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